Seven Years from Unprecedented Disaster

Seven years will have passed in March 11^th two weeks later. Although construction of public houses for the sufferers who lost their own houses will mostly be finished in next fiscal year, the schedule has been delayed for three years, forcing the residents uneasy ordinary life in temporary houses. In the area damaged by radiation emitted from broken First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, a few of the students of elementary or mid schools have returned to their schools, causing disappointment of the people in their effort for reconstruction of their hometown.

 

Local governments are building “reconstruction public houses” for the sufferers who are unable to reconstruct their own houses. 63 cities, towns or villages in the prefecture of Iwate, Miyagi or Fukushima planned building of about 30 thousands of the houses. In FY 2018, 760 houses will be built in 6 cities or towns. All the construction of reconstruction public houses will then be finished, except 212 houses in Iwate and Fukushima.

 

Local governments in Iwate and Miyagi planned to finish building the houses by FY 2015. But they could not find the land for the houses soon, because a broad area had suffered from great tsunami and been useless. Some area had to accumulate a great amount of soil for creating hills to withstand next tsunami. Price hike of materials for the construction and scarcity of human resource also caused the delay.

 

While the reconstruction in Iwate and Miyagi is at least in progress, Fukushima is still left behind. Evacuation order of national government has been lifted in 9 towns or villages by last April, except towns of Okuma and Futaba where the broken nuclear power plant is located. But families with children hesitate to get back to their hometown, being afraid of negative effect of radiation on their kids. Although three towns and a village decided to resume the public schools in their homeland this April, only 4% of the students will go to the school from their own houses. Rest of them will commute from temporary houses out of the towns or a village.

 

It is crucial for suffered cities, towns or villages to keep young residents who will be responsible for rebuilding the community. High-level radiation from the plant consistently disturbs their effort. As time goes by, ordinary life of students has been rooted in the place where they are in evacuation. Public support for them is endlessly indispensable. It is fair to say that East Japan Great Earthquake has changed Japan forever.

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New Missile Deployment in Okinawa

Shinzo Abe administration has begun to consider deployment of a company for surface-to-ship missiles on the main island of Okinawa. With connected operation to another company already planned to deploy on Miyakojima Island, they will deal with active moves of Chinese Navy going out to Pacific Ocean through the sea area between those two islands, or Strait of Miyako. It may cause further escalation of security situation in East China Sea.

 

It was November 2008 when four vessels with Chinese Navy passed Strait of Miyako, which has the width of 290 kilometers, for the firs time and advanced to Pacific Ocean. Afterward, they frequently commuted between East China Sea and Pacific Ocean and Japanese government reconfirmed that a nuclear-powered Chinese submarine passed the strait last month. While international maritime law guarantees free navigation of vessels in the high seas, frequent passage of Chinese military vessels has become a threat for United States Force in Western Pacific.

 

The government of Japan included possession of SSM companies for defending isolated islands in National Defense Program Guidelines in 2013. In Medium Term Defense Program between 2014 and 2018, it stressed necessity of enhancing defense capability in Southwestern Archipelago. According to the alignment plan of Ground Self-defense Force, 12-type SSM companies would be deployed on the islands of Miyakojima, Ishigakijima and Amami Oshima. In addition, companies of surface-to-air missile would also be deployed on those islands.

 

Asahi Shimbun reported on Tuesday that Abe administration had a plan of deploying a company of GSDF with 12-type SSM, which had the range of 200 kilometers. Because that SSM cannot cover whole Miyako Starit only from Miyakojima, Abe administration decided to have another company on the opposite side. SSM in Miyakojima or the main island of Okinawa will be able to catch all the Chinese ships within its range.

 

It is likely that China will oppose the deployment of SSM in Okinawa. China has been sending not only military vessels or submarines to the area, but aircrafts beyond the strait. Early-warning aircrafts, bombers or fighter jets have passed beyond Miyako Strait these years. Deployment of SSM companies is an apparent countermeasure against China’s advance.

 

People in Okinawa embrace uneasiness on new SSM deployment. Their ordinary life has been threatened with consecutive falls of military helicopters or their parts, generating resentment against US Force and JSDF. There is consistent protest against building new US base in Henoko. SSM plan in the mainland of Okinawa will face certain protest of the local people.

Unimaginable Situation of Crisis

Shinzo Abe administration suffers from a contradiction that it has created in security policy. While it had made new security legislation a few years ago, the administration argued that the legislation was baseless in a lawsuit of a member of Japan Self-defense Force. In the discussion of the Diet, the opposite parties accuse Abe administration of its double standard.

 

One member of Ground Self-defense Force in his duty made a lawsuit in March 2016, in which he demanded a confirmation of no need of obeying the order of defense mobilization in “situation of existential crisis.” Situation of existential crisis was a concept created by Abe administration as possible security crisis of Japan as serious as it would no longer exist, when it explained the reason of making new security legislation.

 

The administration tried to dismiss the plaintiff’s argument by saying that there was no occurrence of situation of existential crisis so far and it was unimaginable for the situation to occur in the future as long as having watched international security environment. It also explained that situation of existential crisis brought by collision between United States and North Korea was an abstract hypothesis.

 

In the discussion at Committee of Budget in House of Representatives earlier this month, President of Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, Yukio Edano, made an argument that Abe administration had raised double standard between in the court and in the Diet. “You hastened the passage of new security legislation as saying that situation of existential crisis might occur immediately,” told Edano, “and you also argued that such a situation would not actually occur in the court.”

 

Prime Minister Abe raised possible cases of situation of existential crisis for new security legislation. They included military attack on a ship that was in an operation for defending Japan or Japanese citizens in the contingency of Korean Peninsula or blockade with floating mines in Hormuz Strait where tankers for Japan would pass. According to the explanation of Abe administration, those kinds of crisis cannot actually happen.

 

The administration appealed in the court that neither occurrence of situation of existential crisis nor issuance of defense mobilization was unimaginable. While the first court dismissed the complaint, the appeal court returned the case to the first court with an opinion that the argument of Abe administration could not be adopted in accordance with past argument in the Diet. The case raised a serious question that Abe administration degraded pacifism in Constitution of Japan with new security legislation for dealing with unimaginable situation.

Will Unilateral Sanctions Work?

Donald Trump administration of United States activated new sanctions against North Korea that had been maintaining its missile and nuclear development. The unilateral sanctions of US, which is the biggest one to despotic North Korean regime, is applied to 56 individual, entities and shipping firms, which were doubted as being involved in illegal export to the North. So, how does it work for Kim Jong-un to refrain from the development, anyway?

 

US Department of Treasury sanctioned one person with passport of Taiwan, 27 companies from North Korea, China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, Africa or Middle America, and 28 freight ships. They are thought as involved in smuggling North Korean products in a way that exchanging the cargo in high seas. Those activities can be recognized as violating United Nations Security Council’s resolutions to put pressure on North Korea.

 

New sanctions show seriousness of Trump administration on pressuring North Korea. “The President is clearly frustrated and rightly so over the efforts that have failed in the past and also over the uptick in testing and advances we’ve seen bin the North Korean program,” told a senior administration official, according to a report of Reuters. Reuters quoted an analysis of an expert in a think tank in Washington DC that the only thing missing was action against Chinese banks which had been undermining the effort of isolating North Korea.

 

One remarkable thing in new sanctions is US determination to put maximum pressure on Kim regime. “If the sanctions don’t work, we’ll have to go phase two,” said Trump in his press conference with Australian Premier Malcolm Turnbull. “Phase two may be a very rough thing, may be very, very unfortunate for the world. But hopefully the sanctions will work.”

 

As expected, Shinzo Abe administration immediately supported new US sanctions against North Korea. “We firmly support it as enhancement of US pressure on North Korea,” told Minister of Defense Itsunori Onodera. He also stressed close communication between Japan and US, referring to exchanging information obtained by Japan Maritime Self-defense Force about reloading cargo in the high seas.

 

Included in the list of illegal activities, China opposed US sanction. “China seriously opposes the US side enacting unilateral sanctions and ‘long-armed jurisdiction’ in accordance with its domestic law against Chinese entities or individuals,” told China’s Foreign Ministry. The comment was nothing but a declaration that China would not refrain from having connection with North Korea. Whether unilateral sanctions will work matters.

Two Years of Negative Interest Rate Policy

Two years have passed, since Bank of Japan introduced negative interest rate policy in February 2016. Although the bank hoped active investment with borrowing money from commercial banks, the policy has not produced such an effect. Rather, negative interest rate caused deterioration of the balance of commercial banks or operation of pension system. While the policy is going to be kept under the leadership of BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, the side effect is kept on accumulated.

 

BoJ introduced two years ago the policy of declining the interest rate of checking account for commercial banks as low as -0.1%. When a commercial bank deposits money in its checking account of BoJ, it has to pay 0.1% of commission. It sounds like penalty of keeping money, not flowing into the market.

 

When BoJ introduced monetary easing policy in different dimension in 2013, BoJ purchased governmental bonds from the commercial banks, expecting them to lend money to various businesses. Contradictory enough, the commercial banks did not deliver their money received from BoJ, but deposit it in BoJ checking account instead. BoJ urged them shifting money from BoJ checking account to lending with introduction of negative interest rate policy.

 

Long-term interest rate declined immediately. The rate of 10-year governmental bond declined as low as -0.3% in July 2016. House owners rushed to the commercial bank requiring change of plan of housing loan in lower rate. There appeared a number of new owners of renting house, who could achieve necessary resource with low interest rate policy.

 

Pension system, which stands on moderate interest rate, severely suffered from BoJ policy. Insurance companies could not manage their business along with decline of interest rate of governmental bond. They raised the price of saving-type insurance or even stopped sales of it. Insurance companies expect BoJ a change of inflation target policy, if the side effects get serious.

 

Commercial banks are frustrated with decline of their income through lending. Major commercial banks are worried about damage of financing system in Japan, if low interest policy would be maintained too long. But Prime Minister Shinzo Abe supports Kuroda’s monetary easing policy, because Abe believes in a notion that good condition in economy will support his political agenda including constitutional amendment. He looks like having no exit policy.

For Intervention in Education

Headquarters for Promoting Constitutional Amendment in Liberal Democratic Party approved the draft of amending the provision about education on Wednesday. The draft requires the government active involvement in improving educational environment, which is already determined in Basic Act on Education. Following another draft on electoral districts along with the border of prefectures, LDP keeps on creating the drafts of unnecessary amendment.

 

As the conservative lawmakers, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his colleagues have been promoting educational reform, aiming at restoration of pre-war education that generates students’ obedience to the government. Hating their political enemy Japan Teachers’ Union, LDP has been making effort to eliminate liberal education that respects for diversity of each student. Educational reform is one of the most important issues in constitutional amendment.

 

Article 26 of the Constitution tells that “All people shall have the right to receive an equal education correspondent to their ability, as provided by law” and “All people shall be obliged to have all boys and girls under their protection receive ordinary education as provided for by law. Such compulsory education shall be free.” The draft adds a sentence in the first paragraph of the article, which demands no educational discrimination with economic reason.

 

While the draft tried to assure equal education for every student, LDP refrained from making new provision of education for free. Abe administration hoped to achieve cooperation from Japan Restoration Party, which had been appealing necessity for education for free, to collect votes for initiative of constitutional amendment in the Diet. Failing to find budgetary resource for it, however, LDP gave up including the word of “free” in the draft.

 

The draft also adds new paragraph that reads “The government has to make effort to maintain educational environment.” That is to urge the government securing necessary budget for education. But, the opposite parties interpreted the draft as further intervention of the government to the schools. Needless to say, the government is responsible for maintenance of good environment of education, as determined in the Constitution that guarantees people’s right to have education. It is fair to say that the additional provision for further involvement of the government can give the government new chance to intervene. The discussion for constitutional amendment by LDP is always directed to enhance governmental power over ordinary people.

Abdication and Constitution

Government of Japan decided on Tuesday the outline of rituals related to abdication of Emperor Akihito and accession of throne by Crown Prince Naruhito scheduled next year. The ceremonies will be taken place as the acts in matters of state, which is determined in Constitution of Japan. Implementation of the constitution is the biggest issue for the abdication.

 

At the time when Emperor Akihito succeeded the throne from the late Hirohito in 1989, Ceremony of Accession in the State Room was taken place in Imperial Palace. In the ceremony, Akihito accepted the Sword and Jewels of Imperial Regalities. Then, Akihito attended the Ceremony of Levee for the Emperor after Accession, in which he made the first speech as new Emperor. That was a case of succeeding throne after the death of former Emperor.

 

It will be different this time. There has been no case of abdication under Constitution of Japan. The conservative groups demanded other ceremonies of delivering Imperial Regalities, based on their notion that the throne was always with those treasures. But that kind of ceremony may have some meanings of handing out the throne with Emperor’s political intention, which can violate Constitution of Japan that prohibits Emperor’s involvement in politics.

 

The government decided not to have the ceremony of the delivery of Imperial Regalities with consideration of constitutionality. Ceremony of Accession will be renamed as Ceremony of Abdication, which will not include the element of releasing the regalities. While it approves the ceremony to be taken place as abdication, the government denies old custom of releasing the throne as a decision of Emperor.

 

First Ceremonial Offering of Rice by Newly-enthroned Emperor will not be held as an act in matters of state, because it will have religious meaning and violate the principle of separation between politics and religion. At the time of Akihito’s throne, the ceremony was held not as an act in mattes of state, but a private event of Imperial House. The Cabinet led by Prime Minister Toshiki Kaifu then decided to appropriate national budget for it, as a compromise to conservative argument.

 

The outline did not make clear decision on whether female royal families would attend the event of succeeding Imperial Regalities. Although some experts on the matters of Imperial House recommended to young families regardless their sexes, the government turned down the discussion on it, being afraid of complicated argument over possibility of female Emperor.