Vulnerable To Tragedy

Killing nineteen foreign tourists, the crash of balloon in Luxor, Egypt, shocked the world. Most sightseeing agents which deal with balloon tour began double-checking of safety of their own devices. In Japan, the death of two old couple has been reported as a tragedy of senior age. Although Luxor must have been what they wanted to see before they die, it became the last thing they saw before they died.

According to the reports, the pilot found a fire on the pipeline which connected gas tank to the burner, when the balloon was descending at the point of ten feet high from the ground. After the pilot, for some reason, jumped off, the balloon suddenly ascended to the sky losing control. Then it was blown up and fell down to the ground. He is alive heavily injured. Some accuse the pilot as irresponsible for protecting passengers.

This is the typical risk of foreign tourism. For Japanese, it is unbelievable that the pilot abandons his balloon, leaving a number of people in it. Even the agents who planned the schedule of the tour could not suppose it. They feel this tragedy was unpredictable.

Luxor has been one of the most popular places to visit in northern African tour. In the history class in Japanese school, students learn about the four major ancient civilizations; Egypt, Mesopotamia, Indus and the Yellow River. Among those four, Egypt is the most developed destination for tourism. In Luxor, however, sixty-three tourists including ten Japanese were killed by an assault of Islam extremist group in 1997.

In spite of risks, why do they go there? Japanese senior age in sixties are baby boomer. They lived their lives in clouded circumstances. When they entered a school, the entrance was narrow, because there was not enough capacity of schools for growing number of students in post war era. They have lived in a highly competitive society. On the other hand, the government of Japan established a broad pension system. The baby boomers are now in time of redemption. No one can condemn them for exploring where they could not visit while working hard for their survival in the competitive world.

But, from the perspectives of the balance of society, is it good for us to let them keep on redeeming? While senior age is consuming a great amount of pension money, young people suffer from low wage and job loss, and are vested huge amount of national debt. Tragedy in Luxor reflected, as well as growing number of people lost in mountains in Japan, the fact that old age are more vulnerable to the accident in the travel to retrieve time they had lost.

Pressure To The Governor

The government of Japan took one step up to the relocation of Futenma US Marine Base to Henoko coast in Nago city. The Ministry of Defense submitted Nago Fisheries Cooperative a request of approval for landfill construction in Henoko. Although it is not necessary for the government, the request was an effort to get further consensus in Okinawa. It must be a pressure for the governor of Okinawa, Hirokazu Nakaima, who has unequivocally rejected the alternative facility of Futenma base in Okinawa.

The focus of the Futenma issue now is when the national government submits the request of approval to Okinawa government. Nakaima, who is vested the authority to approve or dismiss the request, has been negative to allow the construction, because overall opinion in Okinawa was firmly against the relocation plan made both by Japan and US governments.

The national government took a strategy to begin with persuading fishermen, who will be affected by the construction of new military facility in Henoko. The officials of Defense Ministry seem to think that those fishermen will accept the construction, if the government compensate for the impact to fishery. The cooperative will discuss the request, and is expected to get their conclusion before the end of next month. If they approve, Defense Ministry will then submit the request to the governor.

When we think about the decision of Nakaima, it is necessary to understand his background. He was elected to the governor in November 2006, when current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was the Prime Minister in his first administration. Nakaima then was the candidate supported by the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito, that are leading parties now. Although he changed his standpoint from “not negative” to “definitely negative” in his second election, Nakaima has originally been close to LDP.

To get the approval from fishery organization was something Nakaima had demanded to national government before the submission of landfill construction request. If the fishermen approve the request, one hurdle will be cleared. Nakaima actually stated that he would not reject the submission itself. His attitude toward national government is getting softer.

However, it is not easy for him to decide to approve the construction of Henoko facility. People in Okinawa will actively protest the decision. A resolution of non-confidence to the governor can be passed in the congress of Okinawa. One possibility is that Nakaima steps down after deciding to accept the construction, the same way of taking responsibility as a mayor of Nago who resigned after approving the relocation to Henoko.

Dying Bipartisanism

The national convention of the Democratic Party of Japan on Sunday marked the difficulties for its survival as a part of bipartisanism in Japan. The restarting event from terrible defeat in the general election last December only showed the party’s shrinking shape and poor mind of leaders. In their new party platform, one can see the fact they have even lost their identity as a party. The fundamental responsibility of them is to survive not for themselves, but for the health of Japanese political system.

The platform adopted in the convention was to determine DPJ as a reformist party. Without doubting its autotelic characteristics, it sets a goal as returning to the leading position. Not thinking about what they do after returning to it, the leaders easily suppose to renew the platform, while appealing the platform is permanent.

New platform dropped the word “fraternity,” which was a catchphrase of one of the founders of the party and former Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama. It added “workers” on three targets of their political activity, “ordinary livers, taxpayers and consumers.” Hatoyama, lost his seat in the election, has been a symbol of DPJ’s idealism. At the point of restarting, the party said goodbye to the founder and seemed to have decided to rely on old socialist ideology of “vanguard of proletariats.” Deeply disappointed to the defeat of the election, the leaders could not see anybody except union leaders who still deal with the party softly.

The result of the election, however, did not show that everyone had left the party. The complicated election system of the House of Representatives produced a great amount of dead vote for DPJ. These voters could return back to DPJ in next election. The biggest mistake DPJ leaders had made at this point was unintentionally turning their back to ordinary supporters who take their position at the center or relatively right. Since the labor unions do not possess enough votes for constructing one part of bipartisanship, the possibility of taking back leading position is getting smaller.

Some of the opposite parties, such as the Restoration Party and Your Party, criticize DPJ’s attitude of leaning on labor unions. Labor union is actually a target of jobless people who are furious at vested interests union workers enjoy. For the leaders of DPJ, however, labor union is one and only a driving force for their candidate to the election of the House of Councillors this summer. We can expect that the result of the election will be horrible for DPJ and the coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party and New Komeito is going to get majority in the house as well as in the House of Representative, which may be good for the stability of Japanese politics.

Expected To Be A Magician

A talent required for new governor of the Bank of Japan was playing magic. Haruhiko Koroda, as the nominee of the post, was regarded the best person for that. With growing support, the Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is confident with his political stability in Japan. Outside Japan, however, he gets negative response toward his handlings of monetary policy. His English unfortunately is horrible. The Prime Minister therefore wanted a speaker to the world. Is Kuroda a good magician, anyway?

Kuroda worked for the Ministry of Finance for thirty-six years. After accumulating his career mainly in tax division and international bureau, he was promoted to the Vice-minister of Finance for International Affairs in 1997, which is the overall director for international policy in MOF. At that time, Japan was recovering from financial crisis of 1998, in which several banks were bankrupted with great amount of bad loans. After retired from MOF, he was elected to the chairman of the Asia Development Bank, which has been a routine post for Japanese economist.

The main reason of picking Kuroda was that he firmly supported Abe’s monetary easing policy. For a prime minister who determined to handle his administration with aggressive economic policy, it is impossible to appoint a person negative to his viewpoint on the top of monetary policy in Japan. Kuroda is one of the advocators of “reflation,” who aims to get rid of deflation through monetary easing. He accordingly supported the inflation targeting policy of Abe administration.

It is unclear, however, whether Kuroda can manage the growing suspicion among governments, which worry about excessive devaluation of yen. The explanation of Abe administration is “Don’t worry, it’s not a manipulation of foreign exchange, but a policy of getting rid of deflation.” It obviously makes no sense. There is no rule of allowing foreign exchange manipulation to fight deflation. Japan is getting close to the isolation in international monetary community.

The key would be how Kuroda can explain the current policy of Abe administration. Even though he is a good communicator in international economy or dubbed as a member of “mafia” of currency community, it is not easy to find a reason to justify the policy of Japan. He at least needs to persuade foreign countries that Japanese policy has good reason for the recovery and growth of itself, and show some benefits for international economy. As long as there is no sign of mutual understanding on Japan’s standpoint, the job of Kuroda should so far be concentrated in confidence building through continuous communications.

Japan, a Part Time Lover

Diplomacy should be exercised with multiple channels. That was the lesson of the meeting of the leaders of Japan and the United States. While Japan concentrated the diplomacy to the handlings of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, US dealt with Japan separately. Actually, the President Barack Obama, the Secretary of State John Kerry, and other officials delivered different messages. When those messages are pulled together, the attitude of US should be interpreted as “We love Japan only we need her.”

Abe looked like satisfied with the result of the meeting. “I would declare that the credibility and the strong tie of Japan-US alliance was completely recovered,” told Abe in the press conference unusually set without appearance of US President. All he wanted to say was he was better than former prime ministers of the Democratic Party of Japan. The message was not for diplomacy, but for domestic politics.

The biggest topic for US in the meeting was how to take advantage of US-Japan alliance in building preferable regime in Asia-Pacific region. “Japan is one of our closest allies, and the US-Japan alliance is the central foundation for our regional security and so much of what we do in the Pacific region,” told Obama to the press. But in the summit meeting, China issue was not deliberately talked about. According to Japanese reports, Abe promised to calmly deal with the Senkaku issue, and both leaders reconfirmed that the Japan-US alliance works for regional peace and stability. That’s it. “He was more business-like than genial,” told Abe about Obama.

Kerry, however, treated with good smile in the meeting with Japanese Foreign Minister, Fumio Kishida. “I want to compliment Japan on the restraint that it has shown, the efforts to try to make sure that this does not flare up into a significant confrontation,” said Kerry on the Senkaku issue. He also confirmed US security commitments with Japan.

Press Secretary of White House, Jay Carney, was totally different from those positions showed by Obama and Kerry. Asked about former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s position that US would oppose any unilateral actions seeking to undermine Japan’s administration over Senkaku islands, Carney replied that “I haven’t seen those comments.” His answer showed the fact that even one of high officials of White House hadn’t been interested in the declining relationship between Japan and China.

The comment which reflected true position of US was Carney’s. For US, China is a true rival in the big game of the great powers, while Japan is no more than a tool to play that game. If the tension between Japan and China affects the game, Japan would be an existence that US wants to forget.

Along with a Cheating Scenario

It was a soap opera. The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and US President Barack Obama agreed with not setting a condition of removing all tariffs before joining the negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Both leaders smiled at the cameras, their hands shaking together, appealing an achievement in the meeting at the White House on Friday.

So, what was the achievement? Japan has no choice except joining TPP, if it were living in the bloc of free trade, democracy, liberty, and in short America. Joining the free-trade negotiation is a natural result. But the leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party, which is supported by farmers and industries, have been pretending to be reluctant to joining it. For an audience, supporters angry with the cheating also look like foolish. It has been played on a cheap scenario.

The starting point was the campaign promise of LDP last fall. LDP promised that it would not accept TPP as long as it upheld abolition of tariff without any exception. Making a contrast to the Democratic Party of Japan, which announced its willingness of joining TPP, LDP looked like negative to it, and won the election. But LDP’s promise rhetorically meant that it would accept TPP, if an exception had been set. Abe agreed with Obama that no promise of tariff abolition was required before joining the negotiation. Although the agreement did not mean allowing an exception, Abe announced as if the deal made exceptions available.

For America, it was not so difficult to set the no-promise rule, because TPP would still be the table for talking about non-tariff system without exception. There is no soccer player who promise before a match not to use his/her hand while playing the game. If a player intentionally used hands, he/she will be punished and booed. And if a player changed rule of the game, it will no longer be a soccer game, and the audiences stop watching and are going home. US could expect that the rule should be kept even after a handball player, Japan, would join in.

So, in this win-win game, Japan and US might have sharing a scenario of the deal. The Chairwoman of the Policy Bureau of LDP, Sanae Takaichi, set a press conference just after the Japan-US summit meeting. The timing indicated that she might have known the deal would be made. She announced that the party would support the decision of Abe. With the support of LDP, Abe is going to officially announce early next month that Japan will join TPP, insisting that the decision was made within the campaign promise.

Nobody knows whether the trade negotiation will harm Japanese economy, especially agriculture. But it is sure that the cheating of politicians harms the sentiment of innocent people.

Strange Judo Talk

For the President of Russia, Vladimir Putin, Judo occupies a large part of his life. That is why he often uses Judo terminology in the negotiation with Japan. But it is sometimes hard for the Japanese to understand what the president is talking about by using Judo metaphor. The point is whether Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, who is not healthy enough to play Judo, can understand Putin’s Judo talk in coming meeting in Moscow.

In the discussion about disputed Northern Territory with Abe’s Special Envoy, former Prime Minister Yoshiro Mori, Putin explained about “hikiwake,” which means draw game. For him, hikiwake was “solution with no winner and acceptable for both parties,” according to Mori’s post-meeting press conference. The explanation was unusual for Japanese, because there is no Judo player who declares no intention of winning before a match. If a player deliberately prolongs a match with non-aggression, he/she will get “shido,” a penalty point which accumulation leads to defeat.

The negotiation over the Northern Territory has been deadlocked between the leaders of both two countries. The last opportunity was the summit talk by Mori and Putin at Irkutsk in Siberia in 2001. At the meeting, both leaders shared a possibility of dividing four islands into two categories. On smaller two islands of Shikotan and Habomai, both would discuss the condition of returning to Japan. And about other two, Etorofu and Kunashiri, the leaders would talk about to which they belonged. After that, however, both nations saw no actual progress.

In the meeting with Mori, Putin drew a picture of Judo competition area to persuade Mori. Pointing a corner of the square, “We are in this place where we can play no more. We need to get back to the center of the square and resume the game,” said Putin. But it was unclear which place Putin was going back to. There are several moments both country made epochs. When Mori showed a caricature of Japanese newspaper, in which Mori and Putin grabbing each other by one hand in Judo match and shaking hands on the other side showing their friendship. “This is an open-weight category,’ said Putin making no sense.

The meeting was overture for the summit talk between Abe and Putin. Although Putin showed his willingness to solve the territorial issue, the standpoint of them is separated so far. Japan requires a solution of the belonging of four islands, while Russia sees two-island solution. First of all, they need to do their best to obtain their own national interests. Then, it is possible for the match to be hikiwake as a result. Hikiwake from the beginning opposes sportsmanship.