Agriculture Sacrificed

Since it had been recognized as preferable for Japanese economy as a whole, nationally circulated newspapers welcomed the agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership in their reports. However, the deal had fatal impact for local farmers or ranchers, while car exporters accepted it with expectation for hopeful future. One question is whether Japan can survive only on exporting machines, leaving food production behind.

According to the announcement of Japanese government, Japan accepted non-tariff special quota for importing rice from United States and Australia. The quota will initially be 50,000 tons for U.S. and 6,000 tons for Australia, and be increased up to 70,000 tons and 8,400 tons thirteen years later. Dismissing U.S. request to set importing mandate, actual amount of importing rice will be determined by consumers’ market.

Tariff on beef will gradually be reduced from current 38.5% to 9% sixteen years later. Safeguard against abrupt increase of beef import will be abolished, if it will not be invoked for four years after sixteen years will have passed from now. Tariff on low-priced pork meat will be reduced from ¥482 per kilogram to ¥50 ten years later, and that on high-priced pork will be abolished then. As on beef, safeguard on pork will be removed twelve years ago.

Japan will have to import at least 60,000 tons of butter and skimmed milk powder and 70,000 tons or more six years later. Tariff on cheddar or gouda cheese will be abolished seventy years later, while that on mozzarella or camembert cheese will remain. On wheat, new special importing quota will be introduced, while tariff will be maintained.

Prime Minister praised the agreement in the greatest regional free-trade framework. “Reaching conclusion was a great achievement for the future of not only Japan but also Asia-Pacific,” Abe told reporters in Tokyo. The deal can politically be interpreted as an effective countermeasure against still growing Asian economic giant, China.

However, TPP may cause a fatal damage on Japanese agriculture. Hokkaido Shimbun, circulated in Hokkaido Island where highly specialized to agriculture, livestock or dairy farming, ran an editorial headlined “Can’t See Future of Agriculture.” It argued that Japanese agriculture was sacrificed through the negotiation. For farmers, the result of TPP negotiation was nothing but a betrayal, violating Diet resolution not to allow abolishment on tariff on five important agricultural products including rice, beef, pork, or dairy products.

The greatest issue after TPP deal will be how Japanese government can maintain domestic agriculture in the context of national food security. For Liberal Democratic Party that has long been supported by local farmers, agricultural policy will be a key element for next national election.

Less Ambitious in Climate Change

One hundred forty-nine countries submitted each target for greenhouse gas reduction to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change on Friday. Their goals were so various in terms of quantity or year for basis that the result would not meet fundamental requirement to limit the hike of temperature in the surface of our planet 2°C. Japan is degrading itself as a major contributor to cool down the earth.

The amount of greenhouse gas emission of countries that submitted reduction target covered about 90% of emission of all. Concerning the fact that about one hundred were developing countries that had not been mandated to reduce greenhouse gasses, it is fair to say that necessity for reducing emission became more common in the world than ever.

However, it cannot be said that human being will reach a goal to avoid tragic outcome of climate change. India currently submitted its target as reducing emission per gross domestic product by 33% to 35% from the level in 2005 before 2030. Indian government announced that it would produce 40% of its whole electricity with non-fossil fuels by 2030. But, because Indian GDP is expected to be growing by four times in 2030, the nation will rather increase greenhouse gas emission in amount, even if it will be successful in reaching its goal in 2030.

The greatest emitter, China, only upheld a goal of starting reduction in 2030. In other words, it may keep on increasing emission of greenhouse gasses until 2030. Although the second greatest emitter, United States, submitted its goal of reducing 26% to 28% of emission from the level in 2005, its target was less ambitious than that of European Union, which raised 40% reduction from the level in 1990 by 2030.

Japan once pledged 25% reduction from the level in 1990 by 2020, trying to take leadership on this issue. After major accident in a nuclear power plant in Fukushima and broad skepticism on nuclear power generation, Japan changed its mind from reducing emission to preserving energy resource. Now, its target is as weak as 26% reduction from the level in 2013 by 2030.

Japanese people are more aware of severe natural weather than ever these years. High tide often soaks cities facing Pacific Ocean and hard rain causes flood in rivers everywhere. While everyone realizes necessity to prevent further global warming, the government of Japan is lazy in leading the world to make concrete framework to protect environment preferable for human being. They do not understand true meaning of Preamble of Constitution of Japan, which reads “We recognize that all people of the world have the right to live in peace, free from fear and want.”

Japanese Spy Arrested

It looked like an ordinary Chinese negative campaign against Japan at the beginning. Now, it became a scandal, in which Japanese government might have been involved.

Last Wednesday, Chinese government announced that it arrested two Japanese men in May, suspecting them as spies. While Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, dismissed that possibility, saying “We absolutely did not that kind of thing,” the spies are appearing to be hired by Public Security Intelligence Agency, based on recognition of Chinese side. It is tested whether Japanese government can save life of Japanese citizens in foreign territory.

One of two Japanese men was arrested in Nanji Islands located in the western part of East China Sea, close to Chinese mainland. They are located 300 kilometers west of Senkaku Islands, disputed by China as its own territory. Chinese Force planted brand-new radar and constructed military assets including new heliport in Nanji Islands last year. It is obvious that Chinese government was nervous about visitors to the islands, where had mostly been a base of fisheries. Another was captured in a city close to the border between China and North Korea.

According to some reports in Japan, two arrested men indicated that they were hired by Japanese Public Security Intelligence Agency, a government organization that collected security information inside and outside of Japan. They had formerly traveled China several times. Their mission was to collect information about Chinese military, activity of North Korea in the place close to the border and abducted Japanese or fled people from North Korea. One expert realized that that kind of information gathering was routine activity by Japanese government.

What has been changed was Chinese legislation on spying. Chinese government laid new legislation called Anti-spy Law, which determined spying as activity of harming national security by foreign citizen or stealing classified information. The law includes death penalty for the criminal. It is possible that concluding this issue may take a long time.

It became an important point how Japanese government explain this issue to Japanese people. Suga has made a big lie to Japanese people, if the story of Japanese spy in China turned to be true. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reiterated that he was determined to save Japanese people in foreign country during discussion over new security bills in the Diet. While Japan has been said as a heaven for foreign spies, it is failing in spying in foreign country. Japanese government will understand that it has not achieved confidence from its people, which must be a crucial basis of national security.

Dentists Too Political

Question: which is the most prevalent in number in Japan, post office, dental office or convenience store? The right answer is dental office. Why? It’s nothing less than obvious, because it’s a highly profitable business. However, the business proved to have been supported by political incentive. Having extraordinary close relationship with politics, some leaders in an organization for dental doctors were arrested with suspect of illegal donation to lawmakers. It is not the first scandal for the organization.

Special Investigation Department of Tokyo Regional Prosecutors Office arrested three leaders of Japan Dentists Federation, including two former presidents, Naofumi Tsutsumi and Mikimasa Takagi, with suspect of violation of Political Funding Regulation Act. They were suspected as having illegally donated to members of the House of Councillors, Masami Nishimura in 2010 and Midori Ishii in 2013.

The prosecutors found that Tsutsumi in 2010 camouflaged ¥50 million of donation from the federation to the supporters’ society of Nishimura, as if it had been supplied from a regional party organization headed by Nishimura. In 2013, Takagi made two donations to Ishii, one amounted ¥50 million and another ¥45 million, exceeding annual limit of ¥50 million. The first ¥50 million was once donated to Nishimura and then transferred to Ishii. It was actually money launderings by dentists.

Surprising enough, Tsutsumi was the president of the supporters’ society for Nishimura in 2010 and Takagi was to Ishii in 2013. In other words, Tsutsumi and Takagi had been campaign leaders for Nishimura and Ishii. In 2013 election, Japan Dentists Federation prepared ¥400 million for Nishimura’s campaign. The organization ordered each of fifty thousands of dentists to find at least five supporters for Nishimura and submit their name list. The total amount of the names on submitted list reached 557 thousands. With such a firm and broad system, dentists have been sending lawmakers to the Diet for many years.

What is the benefit they want? It is supposedly the reward for their medical treatments. Each medical treatment has certain point, on which payment for medical doctors will be calculated. Dentists want as great share as possible in the medical community, including ordinary medical doctors and pharmacists. As a pressure group, Japan Dentists Federation kept on providing explicit donation to politics.

In 2004, the federation caused a major scandal of donating illegal money to Hashimoto fraction in Liberal Democratic Party, which had constituted a mainstream of the party. People would see this current scandal as an endless money game between politics and old establishment in Japanese society.

Cannot Accept Defeat

The government of Indonesia announced that it would introduce high-speed railway system between Jakarta and Bandon from China. Japanese bullet train, Shinkansen, was dropped in the competition. Since the deal offered by China was actually unrealistic, requiring no financial burden from Indonesian government, Japanese government rejected recognition that Japan was a loser. The fact is, however, that Japan lost a crucial business opportunity which was also important in terms of international relations in Southeast Asia.

In the competition on Jakarta-Bandon Train, Japan and China were final candidates to export their high-speed train system. But, both offers were simultaneously dropped, because the cost for construction was too expensive for Indonesia. Indonesia announced that it changed the plan to semi-high-speed train with max speed of less than 250km/h. It is likely that China has still been seeking the deal with Indonesia, while Japan gave it up holding its offer with Japanese yen loan to Indonesian government.

The decision of was announced from State Minister for National Development Planning, Sofyan Djalil, to Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, in Tokyo on Tuesday. In his press conference on Tuesday, Suga looked frustrated with the issue being called Japan’s defeat. “It is rather than being defeated…because that was completely unbelievable for Japanese government, asking no financial burden or debt guarantee to Indonesian government,” told Suga to the press. Suga said that he expressed regret to Sofyan in the meeting.

Even how Japan accuses Indonesia, it lost a deal valuable for several trillions yen in a country with the fourth greatest population in the world. China tried hard for building bridgehead on a highly potential market at any stake, offering technology transfer, development of train building factory in Indonesia and construction of aluminum refinement factory necessary for making train body. Although necessity of imagining unpredictable was a lesson of Great East Japan Earthquake, Japanese government again failed in doing that.

The defeat may affect economic policy of Shinzo Abe administration, which has been focusing on exporting infrastructure. Japanese companies realized competitiveness in price of Chinese infrastructure. It will be important for Japanese infrastructure to take advantage of rich experience in foreign market, good reputation for quality or safety and fast construction within a set period. But it is unclear whether Japan brand can always meet demands of clients.

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Not Get Rid of Deflation

While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stressed his determination to improve economic situation of Japan, business leaders were not so optimistic on their future. Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan in September, operated by Bank of Japan, revealed that the index of business conditions of major manufacturers was exacerbated for the first time in these three quarters. Unfortunately enough for Japanese economy, main element of economic slowdown was not in Japan, but in an uncontrollable place called China.

The index of major manufacturers in September was +12, reduced by 3 points from June. 11 types of manufacture out of all 16 claimed that their business situation was worsened. Exporters of industrial machines were affected by negative impact of steep decline of Chinese economy. The index firmly indicated the dependence of Japanese economy on its neighbor economic giant.

On the other hand, major non-manufacturers have positive expectation to near future. The index of them marked +25, increased by 2 points from previous quarter. 8 types of non-manufacturers, including hotel, restaurant or office landlord, expected improvement of their business. Retailers are counting on great purchasing power of Chinese travelers, making Japanese economy more dependent on China.

Kyodo News ran an article that BoJ started considering further monetary easing to support price in the markets. The bank recognized a possibility of delay in reaching the goal of targeted inflation, caused by slower recovery of Japanese economy with weak productivity stemming from Chinese economic slump. Still upholding the goal of price rise by 2%, BoJ had to lower its goal of +0.7% price hike in FY 2015 and +1.9% in FY 2016, which was set only a few days ago.

One of the most optimistic was Abe. In his speech in New York this week, Abe promised that he would completely get rid of deflation. “The deflation mindset that long haunted Japan, we have now shrugged off,” declared Abe in a meeting at Broomberg headquarters. He was confident in reaching the goal of +2% price hike, holding new goal of ¥600 trillion of gross domestic products in 2020. To achieve it, Japanese economy will need to keep 3% of annual nominal growth, which makes business leaders skeptical on Abenomics.

There must be a few reasons to have optimistic view on Japanese economy. Economic slowdown may be extended long, further damaging Japanese economy, and finishing of monetary ease in United States can suck money up from emerging economies. Who except Abe can hold positive view?

Peripheral Proactive Pacifism

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reiterated in general debate of annual General Assembly of United Nations how Japan had been contributing maintenance of peace and security in the world. So, what is he doing in the future? On a major stream of refugees from Middle East to Europe, he only offered financial support to related countries, putting direct contribution behind. What Japan needs to uphold is not proactive pacifism, a concept to justify political agenda to take back pre-war regime, but actual framework to eliminate the network of extremism.

True intention of Japan to appeal its contribution to international peace and security is apparently to obtain a ticket to be one of the permanent members of U.N. Security Council, regardless a fatal antagonism against United Nations seventy years ago. “The Japanese are a people who view, and will continue to view, the two letters ‘UN’ as having a certain glimmer,” told Abe in his speech. The statement was followed by these words; “Holding aloft the flag of ‘Proactive Contributor to Peace based on the principle of international cooperation,’ Japan is determined to undertake Security Council reform in order to transform the United Nations into a body appropriate for the 21^st century, and then, as a permanent member of the Security Council, carry out its responsibilities in making still greater contributions towards world peace and prosperity.” For Abe, U.N. looks like inappropriate for the 21^st century.

To implement what he called proactive pacifism, Abe offered $810 million of assistance for refugees and internally displaced persons in Iraq and Syria as tripled number from the amount last year. To Lebanon, he implemented $2 million in new assistance measures, which included collaboration between development and humanitarian actors. Abe also pledged $2.5 million of humanitarian assistance to Serbia and Macedonia, where great number of refugees and migrants are flowing in.

However, Abe did not refer to acceptance of refugees to Japan itself. According to a report of Mainichi Shimbun, Japanese government approved only 11 applicants for refugees out of 5,000. Ratio of approving refugee was less than 1%. Because Japanese government so strictly interpreted “possibility of persecution” as a definition of refugee that it could not directly contribute international effort to help displaced people.

Abe reiterates that he hopes Japan to bloom in the center of the world. In which international issue, anyway, is Japan located in the center of the world? If it were nothing more than buying status of permanent membership of Security Council, the Japanese people would not be proud of the concept.