What’s Early Settlement?

Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, had a summit meeting with South Korean President, Park Geun-hye, for the first time as national leaders, at the Blue House in Seoul on Monday. In spite of the significance of the fact that those two leaders had a meeting, the outcome was strange. They agreed on seeking “early settlement” of comfort woman issue. Early settlement? What’s that?

The meeting was held including both foreign ministers for an hour and continued with other officials for additional forty-five minutes. “This is the greatest obstacle in improving our bilateral relationship. It should soon be resolved on the level which is acceptable for victims and understandable for our nation,” Park told Abe on comfort woman issue.

Abe revealed some details about the meeting. “We agreed on accelerating the negotiation for early settlement,” told Abe to the reporters. “For constructing future-looking cooperative relation,” he stressed, “it cannot be tolerated for us to leave obstacles to future generation.”

According to a report of Mainichi Shimbun, one official of Japanese government explained the meaning of “early settlement” as issuing order to accelerate current talks on the level of bureau chief of both Foreign Ministries, which made no sense. The fact that Abe referred to “early settlement” meant that comfort woman issue was not settled, contradicting Japan’s longtime argument that all claims had been settled with an agreement simultaneous with Japan-South Korea Basic Treaty in 1965. On this point, Abe told that the standpoint of Japan has not changed. He used different tongues between Park and Japanese citizens.

It is likely that both governments put the highest priority on maintaining momentum for continuous summit meeting in their bilateral relationship. But, that compromised agreement will produce no meaningful outcome. The people in South Korea expect that a certain solution is coming from Japan by the end of this year, because Abe referred to “regarding fiftieth anniversary” from normalizing bilateral relationship. There is no willingness in the government of Japan to settle comfort woman issue within this year.

In Japanese, the settlement, or daketsu in Japanese language, generally means concluding negotiation, such as overwhelming settlement in Trans-Pacific Partnership last month. The agreement of Japan-South Korea summit meeting obviously contradicted what Japanese government had been telling to its citizens. Abe administration needs to drop one of the two options; no problem exists on comfort woman issue or it needs to deal with the problem.

Keeping Momentum

Two men showed smile as they had been forced and between them was the host lady with her teeth exposed. Trilateral summit meeting of Japan, China and Republic of Korea was held for the first time these three and a half years in Seoul on Sunday. They failed in settling a number of problems among them. So, what was the reason of their smiles? It was because they thought it was successful in terms of maintaining momentum of the trilateral diplomatic channel.

The meeting was held in the Presidential Residence, Blue House, in Seoul for one and a half hour. In the beginning of the meeting, three leaders made oral jabs each other in front of TV camera. “In spite of closeness of the nations, deep understanding is not established between some of them,” told Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang. The host of the meeting also frustrated with the situation of the trilateral relationship. “We have not been able to settle the problems that brought conflict and opposition in politics and security,” said South Korean President Park Geun-hye. As long as reading the reports in Japan, it was not clear what Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said.

According to the reports based on announcement of Japanese government officials, Abe explained that his statement on the seventieth anniversary from World War II was a promise of further contribution to international peace and prosperity based on seventy-year history of a peaceful nation. “It is not productive to focus on specific past events,” Abe said to have told, “and I want to weave a forward-looking history of cooperation by Japan, China and South Korea.”

Having exhibited strong position in the trilateral relationship for taming each of their internal frustrations, three leaders shared the necessity for improving economic relationship that they deadly wanted. They reconfirmed their willingness to accelerate negotiation for the trilateral free trade agreement and to make effort for economic integration in East Asia. Economy is currently the most crucial issue for each of them.

Three leaders intensively avoided crucial issues that had caused deterioration of their relationship: comfort woman and South China Sea. Leaving them behind, the joint declaration included “spirit of facing history and stepping forward to the future,” which interpretation might be different by the three. The greatest achievement was that they agreed to have annual trilateral summit meeting, expecting Japan to chair next meeting in 2016. Li and Park supposedly wanted to say that Abe would be responsible, if next meeting was cancelled.

The declaration also opposed any action drawing tension by North Korea on nuclear issue. On climate change, they reconfirmed their cooperation for making a deal in the Paris conference next month. All those agreements will be meaningless, if the trilateral framework is collapsed.

Sino-Korean Interdependence

President of Republic of Korea, Park Geun-hye, warmly welcomed Chinese Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, in her official house called Blue House on Saturday. They agreed on promoting bilateral economic cooperation with a possibility of establishing new trade zone in East Asia. In the eve of trilateral summit meeting including Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, Park and Li exhibited their close relationship on the continent.

At the beginning of the meeting, both leaders emphasized their willingness of deepening economic ties between the two nations. “I want to develop the strategic and cooperative partnership in terms of middle and long time,” told Park to the reporters. “I want to raise the cooperation in every aspect of both nations up to a new relationship,” replied Li. The meeting continued for one hour and forty minutes, extended by forty minutes from planned schedule.

Both leaders agreed on accelerating the process for Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, in which sixteen Asian nations are involved. They also promised their effort to activate China-South Korea Free Trade Agreement within this year. Regarding Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, Chinese-led economic cooperation framework in Asia in which ROK is participated, two leaders reconfirmed that they would be reinforcing partnership for investment in the third parties.

They exchanged seventeen bilateral documents for vitalization of trade and investment, and memorandums on science and technology or environment. With agreement for protecting panda, China offered presenting one panda for a zoo in South Korea as early as early next year. Panda still is a major diplomatic tool of China.

Those bilateral agreements had one common concept: against American-led order in Asia. RCEP is a free trade framework countering Trans-Pacific Partnership, which has been conceived as a containment policy against China. AIIB is a newly launched monetary system against International Monetary Fund, which includes Asian Development Bank. China has been energetic in inviting ROK to Chinese side to counter those international pressures.

To the close tie between China and South Korea, Abe seems to be powerless in the trilateral meeting. Bogged down with his personal political agenda of reinterpreting history, it is likely that isolation of Japan in Asian nations will be apparent. The people in South Korea have been protesting Abe’s visit to their hometown, denouncing his attitude on comfort woman issue. As one of the worst scenario, he can be labeled as one of the most disgusting guys during his stay in Seoul.

Delay in Monetary Policy Again

Shinzo Abe administration seems to have abandoned its famous agenda of targeted inflation within two years from April 2013. While it has already passed this April, Governor of Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, kept on explaining that Japanese economy was reaching the goal. Now, any explanation cannot be accepted by anyone and the scenario of revitalizing Japanese economy is collapsing.

In the policy meeting on Friday, Bank of Japan postponed its goal of achieving the growth of commodity price by 2% from “the first half of 2016” to “the second half of 2016.” This was the second correction of the time for the goal, following the announcement in this spring. Urged by Abe, Kuroda launched “quantitative monetary easing in different dimension” of 2% inflation within two years in April 2013. Everyone interpreted Kuroda’s words as achieving the goal by April 2015. However, it became sure that the goal would be delayed to the spring of 2017.

Kuroda was eloquent in elaborating the situation of economy that became unable to reach the goal. “It was mainly affected by downward preference of energy prices, especially a major decline of oil price since the summer of 2014. A lot of unpredicted things may happen with volatility in and out of Japan,” told Kuroda in his press conference. You’re right, Mr. Governor. But didn’t you include that possibility, anyway?

Kuroda was devoted in defending his policy. He stressed resilience of price, quoting 1.2% growth of price except energy. Well, commodity price cannot exclude energy price, you know. “We decided that it was appropriate to maintain current quantitative and qualitative monetary easing in a situation of eventual improvement of fundamentals of price,” told Kuroda, asked the reason of avoiding additional monetary easing. His elaboration did not make much sense.

There is no support for achieving 2% goal from the side of politics. The leaders of Abe administration have no idea to tackle with the energy price down. “What we can do with monetary policy is limited,” told Minister of Finance, Taro Aso. Abe is eager to improve Japanese economy no longer by monetary policy, but by trickle-down theory from employers to workers. After issuing extraordinarily great amount of money to the market, the leaders are frustrated with business leaders who have been keeping profit in their company.

It is necessary for Abe administration to admit its failure in monetary policy and set alternative target for economic growth. They are too weak to be honest to the people.

Stop Oppression in Okinawa

Unsettling long dispute, Shinzo Abe administration started building main body of new United States Marine Air Base in Henoko district of Nago City, Okinawa, on Thursday. Although Japanese law requires approval of governor of the prefecture for the landfill, the national government dismissed the decision of Okinawan Governor, Takeshi Onaga, which overturn the approval issued by the predecessor. The constructor violently removed the protestors in front of U.S. Marine Camp Schwab in Henoko. U.S. President Barack Obama cannot ignore this oppression.

It was three weeks ago when Onaga killed the approval of landfill decided by former Governor Hirokazu Nakaima. National government overtook Onaga’s dismissal with reasoning of that regional government had to obey national policy this week. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reiterated the necessity of new base in Henoko in terms do national defense.

However, overwhelming public opinion in Okinawa supports Onaga, who took the seat with promise of no new military base in Okinawa, defeating Tokyo-leaning Nakaima last year. To construct new Marine base in Henoko sharply stimulates negative sentiment against Tokyo, which has been accumulated from coercive annexation of Okinawa to Japan in the nineteenth century.

Protestors around Camp Schwab chanted “Go home, go home,” to the constructors bringing building materials Thursday morning. Police arrested a man trying to block trucks of the constructor at the gate of the camp with suspicion of damaging plastic net for the construction. Still, the protestors denounced national government around the gate until it got dark.

Minister in charge of the issue, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, was not in Okinawa to talk with the people, but in Guam to see what was going on in relocation plan of U.S. Marine Base. Suga met with a Congressman from Guam and reported that construction of new base in Henoko was accordingly proceeding. “We received approval for the landfill from former Governor Nakaima. Since administrational decision has been made, we continue the process as an extension of it,” told Suga to the reporters. You’re wrong, Mr. Suga, the approval no longer exists.

Construction of Japan determines that every person is respected as an individual, the concept which consists fundamental basis of democracy. Protest against the military base is rooted in pursuit of happiness of the people in Okinawa. In addition, concentration of military base in Okinawa harms equality under the law that the Constitution also demands. Not only Japanese government, but U.S. government, needs to realize that this is highly unusual infringement of human rights in the history of Japan.

Resumption with Minimum Approval

Following two reactors in Sendai, Kagoshima, a reactor in Ikata Nuclear Power Plant achieved approval of resumption from the Governor of Ehime Prefecture on Monday. It will restart its power generation early next year. Leaving concerns of the residents behind, nuclear power generation is eventually spreading in Japan again. Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant is still leaking contaminated water to Pacific Ocean, anyway.

Governor of Ehime, Tokihiro Nakamura, announced that the approval of resuming Reactor #3 in Ikata Plant to Shikoku Electric Power Company, which owned the plant. And Nakamura later visited Ministers of Nuclear Emergency Preparedness and of Economy, Trade and Industry in Tokyo and requested further measures for dealing with possible accident in the plant. “I received determination from national government,” told Nakamura after the meetings.

The focusing point on resumption of Ikata Plant was approval from cities and towns around the plant. For the decision of allowing resumption, Nakamura required approval only from Ikata Town, where the plant located, following the example in Sendai. Although there were six cities and towns within 30 kilometers from the plant, Nakamura did not get approval on the resumption of reactor. “I heard opinions from the mayors,” was the answer of Nakamura to a question about legitimacy of the process.

Meanwhile, new regulatory law demands making evacuation plan for the people living within 30 kilometers in case severe accident happens. Ikata Plant is located on a long and narrow peninsula in the west of Shikoku Island. The evacuation plan assumes that people will go to Kyushu Island across the strait by ships, if the road to mainland is blocked in great earthquake. But, the ports for evacuation are not so big for accepting a large ship. Evacuation of Ikata Town expects that people will be able to use small fishing boats to catch large ships offshore. There is no guarantee for the evacuation plan to work effectively.

The resumption of Ikata cannot necessarily be a gospel for other reactors waiting for resumption. For resumption of Takahama Nuclear Power Plant in Fukui, Prefectures of Kyoto and Shiga request engagement to the decision, because both prefectures are partly included in the area within 30 kilometers from the plant. Hakodate City, Hokkaido, raised a lawsuit against owner of Oma Nuclear Power Plant, being built on the other side of Tsugaru Strait, for stopping the construction. There are high hurdles for resuming the rest of reactors.

On the same day of approval to Ikata, the wall to block underground water in broken Fukushima Plant was established on the seaside. However, 400 metric tons of contaminated underground water is still flowing into Pacific Ocean. If they consider the unbearable impact on human life, decision of resuming nuclear power plant will not be so instant.

Operation Freedom of Navigation

After months of waiting, United States stood up to China to show its determination in maintaining its influential power in South China Sea, partly where China had been asserting its sovereignty. A guided missile destroyer, U.S.S. Lassen, calmly sneaked into a sea area around the reefs that China claimed to be its territory. While United States stressed freedom of navigation with denial of China’s assertion, China denounced U.S. as violating its sovereignty. Japan is closely watching how the situation will affect its security.

Japanese media calls the U.S. patrol Operation Freedom of Navigation. They reported that U.S.S. Lassen went through the seawater located within 12 nautical miles from Subi Reef where China was constructing airport with a 3,000 meter-long runway. Lassen is a destroyer belonging to U.S. 7^th Fleet stationing in Yokosuka, Japan. It is predicted that U.S. will continue its patrol to make fait accompli that the sea area does not belong to China.

Prior to other media, Asahi Shimbun reported U.S. decision to send its ship or aircraft to the area a week ago. The decision was regarded as based on frustration of President Barack Obama in the meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping last month, in which Xi insisted on Chinese sovereignty over the reefs in South China Sea. It should be a preemptive measure of U.S. to maintain rule of international law before China establishes a control to that region.

The most important point for Japan is not about freedom of navigation, but the impact on security of Japan. Japanese Diet passed new security laws, which would enable Japanese Self-defense Force supporting U.S. operation, if the situation would crucially affect Japan’s existence. “We have closely been exchanging information with U.S.,” told Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, with positive recognition for U.S. action.

It is likely that U.S. government expects Japan’s help for the patrol. But, what Japan can do for it is not clear. One of the possible supports is sending P-3C patrol aircraft to South China Sea. Still, there is a negative opinion in Self-defense Force that worries about weakening of patrol in Senkaku Islands where Chinese ships are sticking around. On the other hand, some argue necessity to support in South China Sea to secure U.S. support in Senkakus.

Business sector cares about energy security. It is possible that Japanese tanker cannot pass South China Sea, if opposition between U.S. and China escalated. “I hope no occasional collision or accident happens. Security must be kept, because all ships of Northeast Asian countries, not only Japan, passes the sea area,” told Chairman of Japan Business Federation, Sadayuki Sakakibara. While businesses leaders support war-approaching Shinzo Abe administration, they are negative in approaching war by themselves.