Divided in Power Politics

While the Western world stood united against the terrorism, the nations from Pacific Rim fell in a standoff with power politics. The Summit Meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation delivered Leaders’ Declaration, which sent no clear message for regional security or international trade. Asia-Pacific world is growingly divided in two.

One of the most important issues in APEC 2015 was how that traditional framework could address regional security. The summit meeting was held in the time when United States and China were struggling over the control on Spratly Islands in South China Sea. That sensitive theme was excluded from Leaders’ Declaration. China insisted on the nature of APEC, which had basically been an economic framework, and lobbied to the host nation, Philippine not to raise the issue in the declaration.

U.S. delegation avoided being caught with sharp opposition against China. Instead, it focused on bilateral diplomacy with Asia-Pacific nations. On the first day in Manila, President Barack Obama visited Philippine navy vessels supplied by U.S. To the Philippine that were suffering from unilateral advance of China, Obama promised two more vessels to Philippine and $250 million of expenditure for maritime security in Southeast Asian nations for next two years. Consecutive summit meeting with close nations including Japan, Australia or Canada demonstrated containment policy against China.

Leaders’ Declaration included only a few words about American-led trade framework, Trans-Pacific Partnership. “We note the recent development on the free trade agreements in the region and the progress of the possible Pathways to the FTAAP including the finalization of Trans-pacific Partnership negotiations,” said the declaration. For APEC, TPP was one of the ways to reach FTAAP and the declaration only noted recent overwhelming agreement of TPP. China had been making every effort to degrade the trade pact.

China and Russia have been negative on the greater influence of America on the region and promote Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. Asia-Pacific region looks like divided between developed nations like U.S., Japan, Canada or Australia and other countries with shared interest, namely Philippine and Vietnam. Some nations economically dependent on emerging China are hesitant in following American leadership.

For APEC, terrorism is only the adhesive for the parties. “Under the shadow cast by the terrorist attacks in Paris, Beirut, and against Russian aircraft over the Sinai, and elsewhere, we strongly condemn all acts, methods, and practices of terrorism in all their forms and manifestations,” noted the declaration. But, it is still unclear what they are going to do to fight terrorism.

Reconfirmation of Alliance

Two leaders reconfirmed the close relationship between both sides of the ocean. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe offered President Barack Obama a support for the Operation Freedom of Navigation, which was aimed for deterring Chinese territorial claim on small islands in South China Sea. Abe’s offer was interpreted as considering dispatch of Japanese vessels to the region. Obama was welcoming any support from Japan in dealing with Asia-Pacific region.

Security issues were raised from the beginning of the meeting for one and a half hour in Manila, Philippine. “I hope to open a new chapter of cooperation for making Japan-U.S. alliance contribute to peace and stability of international society,” told Abe, noting new security legislation passed the Diet in September. Obama explained that the operation in South China Sea would be continued as a routine activity of U.S. Force. “Shinzo and I both share an interest in continuing to foster rule of law, supporting international norms in areas like freedom of navigation or maritime law,” said Obama.

Freedom of navigation in South China Sea is a common interest for both Japan and U.S. Transporting ninety percent of imported crude oil and sixty percent of natural gas through South China Sea, Japan realizes cruciality of securing safety of the sea lane. China is also getting active in East China Sea, targeting potentiality of natural gas under the sea. For Japan, further advance of China to the region is not acceptable.

For U.S., support of Japan is indispensable to maintain its influence in Asia-Pacific region in the time when war against terrorism has again rose up in the center of security issues. “I want to congratulate Prime Minister Abe on his recent legislation relating to bolstering Japanese capabilities and it will give us a chance to talk about a wide range of threats, both regionally and internationally,” told Obama.

In the context of dealing with Chinese advance, Abe and Obama hailed recent agreement on Trans-Pacific Partnership. “It extended the multi-layered cooperation of Japan-U.S. alliance to the world,” said Abe. He stressed the necessity of cooperation among the nations sharing the values like freedom, democracy or rule of law. Both leaders reconfirmed their policy to work early activation of the free trade framework.

It was the day two months after Japanese security legislation passed with unilateral procedure by leading parties in the Diet. Protesters gathered in front of the Diet building, requiring abolishment of the legislation. Obama’s congratulation to Abe may stimulate resentment to U.S. that hopes Japan to be involved in every problem U.S. brings.

Recession in Japanese Economy

Cabinet Office released on Monday initial gross domestic products of Japan in the third quarter this year, which indicated annual 0.8% decline. It was negative growth for two consecutive quarters that reflected recessive aspect of Japanese economy. No resilience in capital investment and personal consumption is a sign of failure in economic policy of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, or Abenomics.

According to the survey of Cabinet Office, capital investment of private companies declined by 1.3% from last quarter. While many companies received a positive impact from cheap yen and petroleum, they were cautious to Chinese economy, which has been obscure for its future. Stocks of private companies also contributed to the decrease GDP by 0.5%. After slump of light car caused by tax increase, carmakers were devoted in reducing their stocks.

Personal consumption showed slight growth of 0.5%. It was brought by sales of air conditioner in growingly hot summer. In the silver week in September, good weather encouraged travel and going out for lunch or dinner in restaurants. “Although there partly is a weak tendency, the environment of employment and income keeps on improving and economy is in slow upswing,” told Akira Amari, Minister in Charge of Economic Revitalization.

However, economic decline for consecutive quarters generally means recession in foreign criteria. Wall Street Journal ran a headline of “Abenomics Sputters in Japan” for its editorial. The newspaper analyzed that Abe’s policy for active fiscal spending resulted in great amount of national debt and monetary easing policy did not encourage bank’s lending. It also criticizes Abe’s decision to raise consumption tax rate and increasing spending for welfare on child care and the elderly. Failing structural reform in labor market, the paper concluded that it was the time for rethink Abenomics.

Amari attributed the weak economy to business leaders. “The problem is weakness in capital investment. Managers have not get rid of deflation mind,” told Amari. Abe is going to deliver supplementary budget next year. With political reasons not to decrease his public supporting rate, Abe decided not to have fall session of the Diet, which would cause delay of economic policy. Putting priority on politics leads to further weakness of Japanese economy.

In September, Abe administration raised a goal of achieving ¥600 trillion of nominal GDP in 2020, which would require 3% growth or more. It is becoming empty promise so far, as we seen in 2% inflation target announced by Bank of Japan few years ago.

Lawsuit: Japan v. Okinawa

Japanese government filed a lawsuit against Okinawa Prefectural Government to Naha Branch of Fukuoka High Court on Tuesday. In a letter of complaint, the national government required withdrawal of the decision by Okinawan Governor Takeshi Onaga that revoked the approval for landfill in Henoko coastal area issued by his predecessor.   Frustrated with firm regional opposition based on democracy, Shinzo Abe administration brought the case to the court, abandoning dialogue with Okinawa.

Although bureaucrats in Tokyo are confident in winning the case, reasons for the lawsuit do not make much sense. The national government compared the disadvantage caused by Onaga’s decision to revoke the approval with possible disadvantage, if the approval were not revoked. National government appealed that danger of Futenma Marine Airbase would not be removed and the effort of both United States and Japanese government would be in vain.

People in Okinawa have been requiring relocation of Futenma Base out of Okinawa to remove the danger. Japanese government made mostly no effort to do that, directly posing burden coming from U.S. Removing danger in Futenma without relocating it to Henoko is not something impossible. If U.S. and Japanese government are successful in finding plan-B, their effort will not be in vain.

National government also appealed that ¥47.3 billion already spent for the construction would be in vain. It should be a cost of inappropriate exercise of administrative power, ignoring the opinion expressed in the gubernatorial election, abandoning achievement of consensus from Okinawa, and unilaterally proceeding to actual construction of landfill in Henoko.

It must be an inappropriate elaboration that the national government evaluated disadvantage of operative noise or negative impact on the nature in Henoko as “extremely small” and claimed that disadvantage of stopping landfill was the greater. “The attitude of national government to landfill the beautiful sea of Henoko and promote the construction cannot be even understandable for the people in Okinawa,” told Onaga in his press conference.

The national government seems to rely on a decision of the Supreme Court in 1968, in which administrative office can revoke its decision only when the disadvantage of maintaining the decision excessively override the disadvantage of revoking. But, power of regional government against national government is getting greater these years. It is not necessarily be a winnable case for the national government.

Going Backward with Russia

In the midst of international effort for standing against terrorism, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe did his best for improving the relationship with Russia. Abe had a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Antalya, Turkey, where world leaders were gathering for G20 Summit meeting, to achieve progress in the Northern Territory issue. While both leaders agreed on determining the most appropriate timing for Putin to visit Japan, the outcome meant the bilateral relationship was going backward, because Putin’s visit had to be done years before.

In the thirty-minute meeting, they reconfirmed to continue bilateral dialogue on leader’s level. “I positively evaluate stable procedure of dialogues and exchanges in broad area,” Abe said to Putin, “ and the important thing to put the relationship forward is keeping our talks.”

According to the announcement of Japanese officials, both leaders spent more than a half of the meeting for the territorial issue and “frankly exchanged their opinions.” They reconfirmed that they would pursue a resolution acceptable for both sides, based on the joint statement in April 2013. Putin evaluated vice-minister level meeting resumed last month as “very meaningful.” They also agreed on reinforcing bilateral relationship in security and economic cooperation.

Even how much they accumulate trivial agreement, Putin’s visit to Japan must be the greatest achievement for the improvement of Japan-Russia relationship. Both leaders once agreed on Putin’s visit to Japan in the fall of 2014. It was postponed to “appropriate time” in 2015, after Russia’s invasion to Crimea. As the crisis in Ukraine prolonged, Abe offered Putin in this September to visit Japan in the spring of 2016. Abe hoped to welcome Putin just before G8 Summit in Japan next May.

While Japan was struggling for determining actual timing of Putin’s visit, Russia began to seek Abe’s visit to Russia before Putin would go to Japan. According to Interfax News Agency, a spokesman of Kremlin told that it was possible for Abe to do that. Putin invited Abe to a regional place in Russia in Antalya meeting.

For Russia, Putin’s visit to Japan is not for settling the dispute over Northern Territory, but for drawing further economic cooperation from Japan. It is obvious that Western nations will be frustrated with unilateral extension of a helping hand to Russia that keeps on occupying a part of Ukraine. Japanese Prime Minister and Ministry of Foreign Affairs need to realize that it is difficult for them to gain any unilateral progress in the time when integrated international action is needed.

Sixty Years of Conservative Party

Sixty years had passed on Sunday, since Liberal Democratic Party had been established by the merge of Japan Democratic Party and Liberal Party in 1955. LDP was in charge of leading Japanese administration for most of postwar period. While it has been a party to represent conservative movements, LDP had an aspect of the reformer, trying to meet various demands of the people. Now, the party looks like returning old conservatism under the leadership of retrogressive Prime Minister.

International regime in Cold War caused political integrations both on the conservative and the leftist in 1955. LDP started its history in the time of reintegration of Socialist Party of Japan. Since then, LDP has been in charge of leading Japanese government except one year of coalitional administrations led by Morihiro Hosokawa and Tsutomu Hata in 1990s and three years by Democratic Party of Japan between 2009 and 2012. “Recognizing our original concept that politics is for the people, we will promote ambitious future-looking reforms, listening to the voices from region,” told LDP Secretary General, Sadakazu Tanigaki, in his statement delivered on Sunday.

While it includes constitutional amendment in its party manifesto, LDP had long been devoted to economic progress of Japan without actual efforts for reviewing Constitution of Japan. It was Jun-ichiro Koizumi administration when internal movement for the amendment grew in the party. As supposed to be a successor of Koizumi politics, Abe has been active in reviewing Constitution of Japan. Although he avoided stepping into constitutional amendment last year, when he changed traditional interpretation of Article 9 that the Constitution was prohibiting exercise of collective self-defense, Abe has still been ambitious to integrate conservative power enough to take initiative in the Diet.

In the process of reintegration of conservative movement, fractions in LDP became less active these years. In the presidential election of LDP in 1956, lawmakers in the party were categorized into five groups led by candidates: Nobusuke Kishi, Ichiro Kono, Takeo Miki, Hayato Ikeda and Eisaku Sato. It was the starting point of fraction politics of LDP, which caused money scandals represented by Lockheed Scandal of Kakusi Tanaka. Under unilateral leadership of Koizumi or Abe, political groups in LDP lost their power.

One character of LDP had been party-oriented politics, in which party leaders had great influence to Prime Minister’s office. Distribution of wealth rooted on party organization that reflected various voices from regions is no longer needed in low-growth economy these years. It is fair to say that Abe is taking advantage of that political tendency for his top-down style politics. The point is whether that authoritarianism will be welcomed by the people.

Essay Shaken by Terrorist Attack

Newspapers decorated the front page with huge headlines and photographs, reporting simultaneous terrorist attack in Paris followed by criminal statement by Islamic State. While French President, François Hollande, recognized the terrorism as war in France, the Japanese media realized the attacks on civil society as retaliation against France’s involvement in concerted effort to eliminate Islamic extremist terrorism. However, no prescription for protecting the country from terrorist attacks has been found in Japan.

Japanese newspapers reported that the attacks killed one hundred twenty-seven people, Hollande immediately issued the declaration of emergency on all over the country and IS warned the world that the event was simply the beginning of a storm. Eight terrorists at least were committed to the consecutive assaults in six places including soccer stadium in exhibition match between France and Germany, night club in a concert of American rock band or café and restaurant clouded in a Friday evening. The attack obviously targeted innocent civilian life in Paris.

Why Paris, anyway? Japanese media connected the event to current involvement of France in the operation of air raid on IS in Syria or Iraq and terrorist assault on a satirical weekly newspaper, Charlie Hebdo, in Paris. It was stressed that France has been embracing potentiality of terrorism with growing immigrants that had caused public frustration stemming from the gap between the rich and poor. France was depicted as one of the soft targets in the Western world.

Major countries denounced the terrorism and expressed solidarity with the French. President of United States, Barack Obama, called Hollande and offered every support for investigation on the criminals. Russian President, Uladimir Putin, send Hollande a telegram to require international cooperation to fight those terrorisms. Even Chinese President, Xi Jinping, expressed “the strongest accusation against this barbaric activity.”

Japan joined the collective denouncement on the terrorist organization. “No matter what the reason, this kind of devilish and contemptible terrorism cannot be tolerated and I firmly criticize it,” told Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in a message to Hollande. He was in Istanbul to attend G20 Summit Meeting in Turkey. “Japan will closely cooperate with France and international society to deter terrorism,” said Abe to the reporters in Istanbul.

However, Japan can actually not join air raid on IS. It can do mostly nothing in military operation to dismantle the terrorist organization. One shocking thing was that the terrorism in Paris occurred under tight security for coming international conference on climate change later this month. An immediate headache for Japanese government is how to protect world leaders in G8 Summit Meeting in Japan next May.