Jeopardy of Local Railway

Hokkaido Railway Company, or JR Hokkaido, released its estimated financial balance in FY 2016 on Friday. The company found that no line out of all twenty-eight in Hokkaido Island could earn profit in FY 2015, jeopardizing its business as a private company. JR Hokkaido considers discontinuing some local lines, which suffer from heavy burden for its financial balance. Having built for the purpose of developing untouched island, anyway, the railway in Hokkaido should be kept by national government with perspectives of homeland security.

The loss in its business amounts to ¥23.5 billion in FY 2016, recording the worst from its establishment in 1987. Compared to initial estimation, the damages caused by consecutive storms in this summer accumulated the red by ¥8 billion, with the cost for retrieval and the loss from cancellation. In this spring, the company started running bullet train to Hakodate, the southernmost city in Hokkaido, connecting for the first time between Tokyo and Hokkaido. Nevertheless, its financial balance was not improved.

According to the calculation by JR Hokkaido, each of six lines spent the cost of ¥1,000 or more to earn ¥100 in FY 2015. In the worst line between Rumoi and Mashike, the trains transported only 67 people in average for one kilometer a day. It spent ¥2,538 to earn ¥100. The line is fated to be ending its operation on 4^th of December, despite requests of the users, mainly high school students or old people who do not drive cars.

JR Hokkaido also considers ending its operation in four lines, each of which spends a great amount of cost, and turned its transportation from railway to bus. In other lines with the red, the company is suggesting to separate its operation, train operation for JR Hokkaido and maintenance of railway for local government. JR Hokkaido, in short, does not want to continue its business.

It is reasonable for a private company that seeks genuine profit to restructure its business by cutting cost off. However, the railway in Hokkaido was laid for the purpose of public interest. The development of Hokkaido was national policy for Meiji Government to counter Southward Policy of Imperial Russia in the second half of 19^th century. Laying railway was the center of the development policy to settle Japanese people to that rural area with a number of indigenous people called Ainu.

Shrinking railway network indicates the end of that development policy of Japanese government. Although Russia does not show any attitude to invade Hokkaido, as Joseph Stalin demanded northern half of Hokkaido for a result of World War II, its influence in Hokkaido might be increasing in such other forms as investment. It may not be Russia, but China or other ambitious countries. In terms of homeland security, Japanese government is responsible for maintaining railway in Hokkaido to offer preferable environment to the residents.

Adding New Mission

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reportedly decided to add new mission to peace-keeping operation in South Sudan by Japanese Self-defense Force. The mission is called rushing up guarding, which is to rescue civilian members of United Nations or non-governmental organizations, using arms. Although the mission had been prohibited by Constitution of Japan, regarding it as use of force in foreign country, Abe administration reinterpreted it to be constitutional. It will be the first case or exercising new interpretation.

Asahi Shimbun reported that Abe had revealed his idea that Abe Cabinet would decide the policy on November 15^th to some leaders of Liberal Democratic Party or Komeito. The opposite parties argue that new mission raises the risk of being targeted and violates traditional five principles for participating in United Nations peace-keeping operation.

Abe administration has been trying to realize security situation in South Sudan. Minister of Defense, Tomomi Inada, visited Juba early last month to judge whether JSDF could work for new mission. After seven-hour stay in Juba, visiting secured area where JSDF was stationing, Inada concluded that the situation was calm. There has been no indication that Abe administration would refrain from adding new mission to JSDF in South Sudan.

Abe administration considers making guideline for new mission. With notion that protecting armed forces from foreign countries is mainly the job of South Sudanese governmental army or infantry companies of United Nations, the guideline does not assume JSDF to approach and guard other forces. But, it is unclear whether JSDF can reject a request for guarding U.N. Forces.

Bad news keep on coming from South Sudan. Facilities of United Nations in Juba were assaulted by armed forces in July. Protesting criticism on not rescuing U.N. personnel, Kenya army, that sent commander of U.N. Force, retreated from South Sudan. United Nations as well as NGO is recognized by the South Sudanese as enemy of independent nation.

It is obvious that JSDF will face with hostility in Juba. Abe administration looks like willing to praise first JSDF victim in U.N. peace-keeping operation to enlighten Japanese people on necessity of sacrifice for national agenda. But, South Sudan is too unstable for foreign troops to achieve reasonable outcome. If JSDF is not supposed to join actual battle in South Sudan, Japanese government has to wait and see until the turmoil will be ceased.

Forced Voting Brings Confusion

Forgetting the fact that Japan had been reluctant to join it, Shinzo Abe administration forcefully stepped forward to ratification of Trans Pacific Partnership. Special Committee on TPP in the House of Representatives passed on Friday related bills for TPP ratification with approval of Liberal Democratic Party, Komeito and Japan Restoration Party. Democratic Party and other opposite parties could not block it. Without any perspective on ratification of United States, Japan is trying to be the leader of that free-trade pact.

The focus of their discussion was not about substance of TPP, but qualification of Minister of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Yuji Yamamoto. Yamamoto boasted last month that it was the Chairman of the Committee on Rules and Administration, Tsutomu Sato, who was going to decide whether the leading party would coercively vote on the ratification, inviting strong protest from the opposite parties. Although it was obvious that the leading party could pass the bills with stable majority in the House, the opposite parties demanded thorough discussion over the details of TPP deals.

Yamamoto did not stop his gaffes. After he apologized his boasting, Yamamoto explained his speech as a joke, fueling the anger of the opposites. In another party meeting, Yamamoto invited the leaders of Japan Agricultural Cooperatives to his Ministry, indicating some sort of benefit to give. The opposite parties required resignation of Yamamoto, who was in charge of agricultural policies to protect farmers or ranchers suffering from TPP.

In the session before voting, Yamamoto apologized again about his reckless words. Afterward, Chairman of the Special Committee, Ryu Shionoya, took votes, during the opposite parties surrounded Shionoya to disturb the proceeding of the Committee. Although the Committee passed the bills, it was unclear who supported or opposed the ratification of TPP.

What had to be discussed was whether it was right or not for Japan to ratify TPP, before United States would make a decision. Both candidates of U.S. Presidential election, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, are against ratification of TPP. It is highly likely that next President will reject TPP to implement her/his campaign promise, which will alienate Japan in the framework of TPP.

Behind the confusion over TPP, House of Representatives failed to approve Paris Agreement on climate change on Friday. It made Japan absent in the first conference of the parties on Paris Agreement. Other bills such as revision of Acquisition and Cross-Servicing Agreement with U.S. were also left behind. Internal dispute over gaffes directly disturbed foreign policy of Japan.

Investment for Sharing Value

Based on an expectation for making closer partnership, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe welcomed a political leader of Myanmar, Aung San Suu Kyi, at State Guest House in Tokyo. Listing common values two nations shared, Abe pledged ¥800 billion of economic support in coming five years to Myanmar. That was the first attempt of Japanese government to compete growing influence from China to that emerging economy in Southeast Asia.

After handing administration from military government to civilian in 2011, Myanmar has slowly been renewing its regime to democratic one. With the victory of National League for Democracy led by Suu Kyi this March, Japan obtained an opportunity to promote value-oriented diplomacy with Myanmar. In the meeting with Suu Kyi, Abe raised freedom, democracy, human rights and rule of law as the values two nations could share. While Myanmar was highly dependent on China in the time of military government, Japan is looking to show clear contrast from commitment of China in democratic partnership.

The tool for value-oriented diplomacy is clearly economy. ¥400 billion of support out of whole ¥800 will be used for reconciliation with ethnic minority in Myanmar including Rohingya. Ethnic issue is one of the top political agenda for Suu Kyi. To deal with the opposition to Rohingya, cooperation with China is indispensable so far. Japan’s support on the issue is to be involved in the sensitive issue, in which China is dominant.

Abe pledged ¥10 billion of yen loan for reforming water power generation plant. Annual exchange of people would be increasing up to 1,000. The program of cooperation was extended to nine fields, including agriculture or infrastructure. “As a friend of Myanmar, Japan is going to make its best to support new regime. I want to make a great progress in our bilateral relationship,” said Abe to Suu Kyi. Suu Kyi recognized Japan as reliable partner and expected it to walk along together.

Suu Kyi has to be one of the greatest fans of Japan in Myanmar. The next day of top meeting, she visited Kyoto University, where she studied as a visiting scholar in 1980s. In the talking event with students, Suu Kyi emphasized on importance of choice in any way and responsibility on the choice. Kyoto University sent her an honorary doctorate on her effort for democracy and human rights.

Even how both nations share common values, international relations does not allow immediate progress of long frozen bilateral diplomacy. Main expectation of Burmese government is not intervention in domestic ethnic issues but economy and development. It is still concerned that Japan will support a regime which keeps on oppressing ethnic minority.

70th Anniversary of Constitutional Activation

The Constitution of Japan reached the seventieth anniversary on Thursday from its activation in 1946. While suffering from consecutive snub on its legitimacy, mainly the argument that it was coerced by occupying United Nations, the Constitution has been working as the backbone of the state. Some groups upholding fundamental abolishment of the Constitution regard their movement as an action for restoring sovereign state. But, how many people in Japan deny sovereignty of its nation? Discussion on constitutional amendment is always up in the air.

As soon as the World War II ended with unconditional surrender of Japan, General Headquarters of United Nations demanded Japan to amend Constitution of the Empire of Japan. Realizing the draft of amendment submitted by the Japan side was limited to be another version of existing Meiji Constitution, the staffs of Government Section of GHQ by themselves embarked on editing new draft in February 1946.

The Japan side reluctantly accepted the draft and then Cabinet approved it as the basis for new constitution. Imperial Parliament received the draft in June 1946, two months after the election of House of Representatives, and passed it with modification in Article 1 or 9 in October. “I would like to make efforts with the people to apply this constitution appropriately and establish a modern state that loves freedom and liberty,” told Emperor Hirohito, when the Constitution of Japan was activated in November 3^rd, 1946.

Right wing organizations, symbolically represented by Japan Conference, argues that the Constitution of Japan is invalid, because it was enacted under the occupation of United Nations, regardless legal processes Japan had taken before the activation of the Constitution. Liberal Democratic Party has been upholding incorporation of an independent constitution as its political agenda. Followed by those powers with restorative ideology, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe demand acceleration of discussion for constitutional amendment.

However, it is still unsure that the amendment can be achieved with stable majority in the Diet. Although amendment power possesses two-third majority in each House, that power has not secured simple majority of general voters in the referendum. Discussion over what provision should be amended has not concluded. Moreover, there came up an argument for minimum turnout in the referendum, which may make the votes invalid, if the turnout is too small. The discussion must not be about how the Japanese have been embarrassed by “coerced constitution,” but should be what kind of provision do we want or not.

Constitutional Commission Restarts

Commissions on the Constitution of both Houses are going to resume its discussion over constitutional amendment in this session of the Diet. It will be a kick off series of discussion after Shinzo Abe administration achieved two-third majority, which was required to take initiative for national referendum, in the election of House of Councillors this summer. However, lawmakers are still not sure what they need to talk about.

While both Houses did not have any specific organization to discuss constitution, they settled Research Council on Constitution. On its background, there was a growing demand to talk about Constitution of Japan after harsh argument over sending troops of Japanese Self-defense Force to United Nations peace-keeping operation in 1990s. Some lawmakers beyond party lines voluntarily took action to establish a forum on constitution. To tame concern of the liberal power on constitutional amendment, the forum limited its agenda to researching about constitution.

After Abe administration passed National Referendum Act in 2007, both Houses reformed its Research Council on Constitution to Commission on the Constitution. Different from former council, the Commission would discuss draft of constitutional amendment. When a draft is submitted to the Commission, it will be sent to General Assembly with support of simple majority. If it passes General Assembly of both Houses with two-third majority, the Constitution will be amended.

The discussion in the commissions was interrupted for a year after three professors on constitutional study found new security legislation of Abe administration unconstitutional in June last year. Watching negative impact of the commission on exercising important political agenda, Abe administration became reluctant to continue the discussion. Regaining self-confidence on its power in the election this summer, Abe decided to restart discussion in the commissions.

Nevertheless, Liberal Democratic Party is not going to submit its draft of new constitution, which has been criticized as inconsistent with liberal democracy. While the opposite parties accuse LDP not to withdraw the draft, LDP leaders insist on it, regarding it as one of the valid official documents. The draft includes provision for upholding Emperor as the head of state, having national defense army, obligation of citizens to obey public interest or restriction of civil rights in an emergency.

Although Democratic Party shows willingness to join the discussion under the leadership of new president Renho, it is reluctant to get into detailed discussion over the provisions. This is the tag of war between Abe, who wants to make as the greatest majority as possible including DP, and DP that wants to disturb the advance of Abe administration with careful lawmakers in Komeito.

Koike School Opens

Leaving the concern of the leading party about growing criticisms on traditional and obsolete politics, Governor of Tokyo, Yuriko Koike, opened her private school of politics on Sunday. Local politicians, women or students gathered, embracing hope of ideal type of social governance. Many recognize it as Koike’s ambition to establish new party. Wait a minute. Haven’t we seen this in Osaka, where a despotic populist, Toru Hashimoto, tried to make his kingdom?

Koike named the institution “School of Hope,” which indicated no actual policy the students would seek. 2,902 students out of 4,827 applicants entered it. Four out of ten were women. “To make wonderful capital politics and politics in Japan, we proceed to a direction where the students will not be critics but players to participate in politics,” told Koike in her opening speech.

Newspapers focuses on seven students, who are Tokyo Congressmen with Liberal Democratic Party, calling them “Seven Samurais.” They supported Koike in her gubernatorial election, defying the order from LDP headquarters to vote for its official candidate. Although local organization of LDP required the headquarters to expel those seven congressmen, party leaders were reluctant to do that, being afraid of protest from Koike, who was popular to the voters in Tokyo.

While those seven congressmen joined Koike’s school with affiliation of LDP, it is supposed that the institute will be the basis of a new party. LDP leaders are afraid of new party to raise a number of candidates in the election of Tokyo Congress next summer. It is likely that new party will achieve a victory with hope of change. Watching consecutive scandal of politics in Tokyo, including obscure process of building new fish market or stadiums for Tokyo Olympic in 2020, the voters in Tokyo are highly skeptical on existing members of the congress.

Led by Governor Hashimoto, Restoration School of Politics produced a lot of local politicians in Osaka. His Osaka Restoration Party achieved a simple majority of Osaka Congress in the election in 2011. While they tried to distribute concentrated power in Tokyo to other regions, existing parties blocked it through opposing Hashimoto’s biggest agenda, Osaka Capital Initiative.

Koike’s school has some advisors who led the movement in Osaka. But, Koike has not made clear what kind of policy she would uphold. Only massage she delivers is change. School of Hope is weaker than Restoration School so far.