Flood Drowned People

The scene reminded people of tragedy in New Orleans, devastated by Hurricane Katrina, in 2005. Heavy and extended rain destroyed levee of Kinugawa River and vast number of houses and rice pads in Joso City, Ibaraki, where were soaked in water on Thursday. As of Friday morning, twelve people were missed with landslides or drowned by the flood. While police, firemen and self-defense force were making every effort to save lives, politics continued struggling over scheduling of the security bills being discussed in the Diet in Tokyo.

In Tochigi Prefecture, located in the upper stream of Kinugawa River, it rained with over 600 millimeters within forty-eight hours to Thursday evening, exceeding average amount of rainfalls in every September. Levee of the river was breached at Joso by the heavy rain in the upper stream, the first disaster along the river these sixty-six years.

Few days before, Typhoon #18 was passing central Japan and #17 was approaching from east side. Although Kinugawa was not located under the course of the Typhoon, heavy rains were occurring on the east side of Typhoon these years. Ministry of Land, Transportation and Infrastructure tried to prevent flood with four dams in Kinugawa stream. But, extraordinarily heavy rain exceeded the capacity of them.

Japan Meteorological Agency issued a special warning to Ibaraki Prefecture, where Joso was located, in Thursday morning. Although the situation in Ibaraki was not sufficient for issuing special warning, the agency decided to do that with consideration of heavy rain in the upper stream. Local prefectural governments are mandated to inform their residents of possible danger of disaster. Although residents around the breached levee was recommended to evacuate in the morning, some failed to evacuate.

Drainage basin of Kinugawa River was located between two typhoons moving northward around Japan. Rain cloud could find no way to go, being caught between them. That accumulated cloud caused long-time rain there. JMA could not predict the disaster from weather chart. Natural disaster these years have apparently been stronger than expert’s expectation.

Nevertheless, politics seems to be incompetent in saving people’s life from natural disaster. There was no declaration of emergency from the central government. Main focus in Nagatacho on Thursday was organizing new fraction in Liberal Democratic Party to succeed Shinzo Abe administration or about when new security bills should be passed in the Diet. They should have interrupted their political trivial struggle and taken measures to rescue isolated people in the storm.

Forcible Passage of Security Bills

The leading parties of the Diet, Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, determined a schedule for new security bills as taking votes at the Special Committee in House of Councillors on next Wednesday and passing in the House as soon as next Thursday. Since they need to take forcible measures for achieving it, the opposite parties are strongly opposing the schedule. It is likely that the administration led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe will lose its popularity, facing protest of the public that will be frustrated with unilateral procedure on the bills.

Article 59 of the Constitution of Japan determines that failure of the House of Councillors to take final action within sixty days after receipt of the bills passed by the House of Representatives may be determined by the House of Representatives to constitute a rejection of the said bill by the House of Councillors. After September 14^th, the leading parties can take advantage of the provision to pass the bills. The secretary generals of both leading parties reconfirmed that they would not like to use that rule for the passage of security bills on Wednesday.

However, Abe and Secretary General of LDP, Sadakazu Tanigaki, agreed on passing the bills “accordingly,” even how the opposite parties would try to disturb the procedure. While their coalition partner, Komeito, is reluctant to use “nuclear option,” LDP leadership is determined to achieve their goal according to their schedule. “We need to get conclusion as soon as possible,” told Tanigaki after a meeting with Abe on Wednesday.

The opposing parties are doing their best to block that procedure. Democratic Party of Japan, Innovation Party and Japan Communist Party started considering submission a no-confidence motion against Abe Cabinet. Once the motion is submitted, all procedure in the Diet will be stopped until the vote for the motion will be taking place in the Diet. Although it will be dismissed by the majority of the leading parties, the motion will buy certain period of time against passing the bills and, more importantly, ignite public protest against highly unusual violation of the Constitution by the government.

As the matter of the fact, it is likely that the bills will pass the Diet with stable majority of the leading parties. However, a certain amount of people are frustrated with unilateral procedure of the security bills, against careful opinions of constitutionality. Economies are volatile with instability of international market stems from unsure Chinese economy. It will be likely that Abe administration will face steep decline in popularity, if it go straight to pass the bills.

Smells Like Fascism

Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary defines fascism as “an extreme right-wing political system or attitude which is in favor of strong central government and which does not allow any opposition.” In the presidential election of Liberal Democratic Party, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe was reelected with no other candidate, allowing no opposition to his presidency. He is willing to exercise stronger leadership for his policy. Well, is LDP really liberal-democratic?

For the election, all seven major fractions in LDP decided to support Abe’s reelection. They justified themselves, raising necessity of party unification in the time of discussing the security bills in the Diet. Only one possible candidate was Seiko Noda, former chairwoman of General Council, who had been skeptical for Abe’s handling of politics on the security bills. Although she tried to collect twenty lawmakers to recommend her, required for qualification as a candidate, Abe and his colleagues kept on pressuring every lawmaker not to support Noda in whack-a-mole way. As the result, she failed to run for the election, lacking necessary recommenders.

Most LDP lawmakers did not respond to Noda’s appeal for diversity. “Selecting the leader through election makes our party stable,” Noda reiterated. But, majority of the party was deeply afraid of counter action from Abe, when they oppose to Abe group. Leaders of fractions competed each other in praising Abe’s leadership. After the election with no vote, Abe insisted on integration of LDP. “I think that most lawmakers thought continuation as force and urged me to continue my tenure,” told Abe.

Abe kept on stressing the importance of economic policy called Abenomics. But, it became clear so far that its success would be dependent on world economy. Abe must have known that. Then, the main reason for seeking party integration is likely to be establishing firm basis for constitutional amendment. After passing security bills, constitutional amendment will be the greatest political issue for him. LDP has not obtained mandated two-third majority in the Diet. To get that majority in next election, possibly a double election of both Houses next summer, Abe is hoping to reinforce conservative movement.

Born in 1955, in Cold War structure, LDP has been called “national party.” That was because it represented wide range of people with diversity in party governance. After seventy years from the end of war, that diversity disappeared. All members of LDP are marching to the same direction. This monolithic structure of politics was what Japan had seen in the eve of that devastative war.

Dialogue Broken Off

It was just a disguise after all. At the end of intensive dialogue with Okinawa for a month, the national government rejected to give way for opposition against building new military base in Henoko, Nago City. In the meeting on Monday, Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, announced the Governor of Okinawa, Takeshi Onaga, that national government would resume construction of the base in Henoko. Onaga responded to it with firm determination to disturb it. It is fair to say that national government did not have any positive intention to make compromise, as predicted from the beginning.

Considering broad criticism against unilateral construction, national government temporarily stopped the work and embarked on dialogue with the local government of Okinawa last month. Suga, in charge of this issue, accumulated direct talks with Onaga both in Tokyo and Okinawa. The meeting on Monday was assumed to be the last talk in the month for intensive dialogue. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe for the first time attended the talk.

Abe soberly reiterated official standpoint of national government. “Origin of the issue for relocating Futnema Marine Air Base to Henoko was bilateral agreement between Japan and United States nineteen years ago. It is necessary to remove danger in Futenma as soon as possible,” told Abe in a way of bureaucrat who would not listen to any voices from citizen. To the question from Onaga about resumption of construction, Suga said “I had to do.” “I will stop it with every measure,” replied Onaga. Both sides did not know how to make the things up.

One-month intensive dialogue may make matters worse. Ministry of Defense will resume the construction after diving survey of Okinawa Local Government will be finished next Saturday. Onaga is likely to void the allowance of development in Henoko, based on the survey, which is supposed to conclude that the construction is destroying wild life. National government may ignore Onaga’s decision or raise a lawsuit against Onaga accusing he was disturbing public exercise legally correct.

If national government had been willing to make a breakthrough, it must have been discussing some alternative way of relocation to Henoko. But, it simply insisted on its reasoning that Henoko was only viable solution. This is firmly based on an ideology that national government is superior to local government, which bureaucrats in Kasumigaseki potentially embrace. Abe administration has been reinforcing its political basis by coinciding this authoritarian concept. Coercive application of unilateral policy in Okinawa will make Tokyo government further isolated in Japan.

Returning Home Policy Goes On

After four and a half years from severe accident in First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, the government of Japan lifted evacuation order to the residence in Naraha Town, located twenty kilometers south of the plant on Saturday. While the government insisted that radiation level in the air was reduced as low as 0.3µSv per hour, only a few people had reported to get back their hometown. It makes clear that once contaminated land does not fit for raising small children, in spite of governmental effort to prove that nuclear accident does not eliminate livable land.

Naraha became the third place where evacuation order was lifted, following Miyakoji district of Tamura city in the west of the plant and eastern part of Kawauchi village in the southwest. It was the first time for the people in a town that was ordered entire evacuation to get back home.

The nuclear accident struck Naraha severely. During the entire evacuation, houses and buildings were mostly left behind without maintenance. One out of ten deregistered as residents of the town, disappointed to the future of their hometown. Instead of them, workers for dismantling broken nuclear reactors or decontamination are living in temporary houses in the town.

Receiving support from national government, Naraha town prepared various measures to encourage returning home. For the people getting back home, the town runs free bus to connect them with hospital or start delivery service for daily goods to each houses. But, with declining tax income in finance of town government, Naraha is highly dependent on support from national government. Once national government stops providing support, the town will not be able to go on. Actually, national government has decided to abolish “moral support” for the people, ¥100,000 a month, in March 2018.

Before lifting evacuation order, national government allowed Naraha residents temporary stay. But, it was only 11% of the people who got back home then. 0.3µSv of radiation is as ten times high as in Tokyo. Naraha people who are living life with kids in evacuation without any fear of radiation can hardly decide to go home on contaminated land. Only some old people may go home and wait for their children or grandchildren to visit them in summer vacation or new year recess.

Nobody knows whether living in contaminated land is safe for people’s health. The government controls the information about health survey for people in Fukushima too strict to achieve credibility for their policies. It is cruel to present only one choice, getting back home, to the suffered people.

Economic Blaming Game

Finance ministers and governors of central bank of twenty developed and emerging countries shared a common notion that China needed further structural reform in its economy. To United States, they reconfirmed necessity of careful consideration in raising interest rate. Group 20 meeting proved that two greatest economies are causing uncertainty of world economy.

Japanese media attributed current volatility of world economy to China. The communiqué of G20 meeting indicated frustration on current situation of world economy, saying “global growth falls short of our expectations.” Newspapers recognized that message as concern on Chinese economy, which has been showing instability in monetary policy. Parties required China to take measures for structural reform on the notion that China’s decline was becoming risk of world economy.

China itself exacerbated this negative reputation on China. Mainichi Shimbun reported that Governor of People’s Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, used the words of “bubble has burst” three times in his opening remark at the discussion on world economy Friday night. The paper focused on the fact that China made opening remark, instead of ordinary Western countries, as effusion of concern in the parties. Japanese Financial Minister, Taro Aso, reportedly criticized China in the meeting, saying “volatile market is a mirror image of structural problems in China.”

Opaque situation of Chinese economy enhances world concern. “The point is whether Chinese administration is controlling situation with efficiency and order,” told U.S. Secretary of Treasury, Jacob Lew. By appealing their effort of urging China to take structural reform, parties tried to ease concern in international markets. Although China promised to expand its internal demands, to get rid of independence on exports, no one was sure about stability in Chinese economy.

It is not only China to be concerned. Expectation on higher interest rate of U.S. Federal Reserve later this year has already caused concern of flowing out of money from emerging economies. Brazil, Russia or Turkey has seen steep decline of value of its currency. Emerging countries requested U.S. to maintain clear communication with markets in the meeting. Even one on the Chinese experts indicated last month that worldwide decline of stock price was related to interest rate hike of FRB and not caused by China.

World economic leaders have no time for playing blaming game, anyway. It is necessary for China to seriously take its responsibility and for the world to closely watch the situation. Japan would not play a major role as long as deteriorated communication in the top level of the governments continues.

Concerns on My Number

The House of Representatives passed a bill for introducing personal number on each individual, which could be applied to bank account. Concerning illegal transfer of money, the measure will be used by the government to oversee personal monetary assets. New method of watching private activity, called My Number System, will sneak into life of ordinary nations.

My Number Act 2013 distributed each person twelve-digit number, which is correspondent to information of taxation, pension or social security. It was for simplifying public service or preventing tax evasion. With an amendment this fall, banks can connect personal bank account with My Number with approval of the account holder. The government will be able to access personal account information. If only a few people approve the connection, the government will consider obligatory connection for everyone.

It is frequent for the people in the country that already introduced personal number to suffer from false obtaining of personal number by someone. In United States, where social security number is necessary to open a bank account, cases of shopping with stolen number were reported. Although Japanese government introduced a penalty of up to ¥2 million or 4 years in prison for illegal theft of number, it is unclear whether the number will be perfectly controlled. Actually, vast amount of personal information was leaked from Japan Pension Service. Public services are not credible enough so far.

People are worried about how personal data will be used by the government. To deal with that broad concern, the government will raise a portal site, in which taxpayers or pension recipients can refer to how personal information was exchanged. But, law enforcement organization can send personal information for “public needs” without reference to the person. Excessive obtaining of personal data is always possible.

While My Number will be distributed to individuals next month, most people know nothing about the detail of the system. Nevertheless, employers will need to add My Number of their employees and their families on documents for taxation. In a survey by private firm, only 2.8% of middle or small business owners answered that they had finished the preparation. Troubles may occur with introduction of the system.

There must actually be merits of introducing My Number, in terms of smooth public service. But Japanese bureaucrats are not good at providing the people with accurate information. Without sincere explanation, credibility of the government will not be enhanced.