Recession on Climate Policy

A former front runner is now on a position chasing the top group. The government of Japan decided to revise its goal on carbon reduction. New target for 2020 was to reduce 3.8% of greenhouse gasses emission from the level in 2005. It must be said that the target was significant setback it once announced to the world in 2009. Although Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, set an ambitious goal in his first term, the priority of climate change has gotten low in the second term.

Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, declared at the United Nations in 2009 that Japan was aiming to reduce 25% of greenhouse gasses emission from the level of 1990 by 2020. The target was the most ambitious one among developed countries at the time, even higher than that of European Union. However, after the accident of First Fukushima Nuclear Plant that caused halting most nuclear reactors for power generation in Japan and relying heavily on thermal power generation, it became unrealistic for Japan to achieve Hatoyama target.

New 3.8% target expects no nuclear generation. The government regards it as “realistic” goal with assumption of 2% annual economic growth and improvement in developing renewable energies including solar and wind powers. If it is based on 1990 level, the target means 3% of increase. Reminding of the Kyoto Protocol mandate for Japan, 6% down from 1990 level, new goal is not ambitious at all. When the government presents it in COP 19 of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the parties may be disappointed by Japan’s recession in this global effort.

European Union has a goal of 20 or 30% reduction of greenhouse gas emission from the level of 1990 by 2020. Russia’s target is 15 to 25% reduction. Even the United States, which has been reluctant to set an ambitious goal, already possesses 3% reduction target. Compared those positive efforts, Japan’s goal is obviously negative.

Abe has been one of the most conscious legislators on climate change. He proposed ambitious target to the world called Cool Earth 50, which demanded halving global greenhouse emission by 2050. With political strategy to denounce unrealistic goal set by former administration led by Democratic Party of Japan, Abe willingly reset Japan’s position on climate change. In the struggle between Ministry of Economy, Trade, Industry, that demanded realistic policy, and climate-conscious Ministry of Environment, Abe stood on the side of METI, turning his position from his first term. Whether the government can reshape the target into more ambitious one will be next focusing point of Japan’s climate policy.