Looking at Different Direction

Japanese newspapers reported an agreement between Foreign Ministers of Japan and Russia to resume negotiation for peace treaty as early as next month. Considering the situation in which Russia is isolated from international community over intimidating policy against Ukraine, it is unlikely for Japan to have any progress in bilateral relation with Russia. Recognizing it or not, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe still believes in a story that he will be able to regain popularity, if he is successful in inviting Russian President Vladimir Putin within this year.

Japanese Foreign Minister, Fumio Kishida, and Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, agreed on holding vice-minister level meeting in Moscow on October 8^th to resume negotiation for peace treaty. They reconfirmed to accumulate diplomatic communication for Putin’s visit to Japan or top level meeting in opportunities of international conference.

However, they seemed to have different understanding on what “negotiation for peace treaty” meant. In the joint press conference after the meeting, Kishida insisted on that “negotiation” included Northern Territory. “I raised Northern Territory issue to tell our viewpoints on it,” told Kishida, “and we could share a notion that we would need to continue dialogue to make a solution acceptable for each other.” He also expressed frustration on unilateral speeches and actions of Russia, including assertion of ownership or visit by high-level governmental officers on Northern Territory.

Lavrov, showing sober face, clearly dropped Northern Territory issue from the agenda of peace treaty negotiation, saying “Northern Territory is not an object of our talk.” “We can only make a progress when Japan accepts historical reality after World War II including the Charter of United Nations,” told Lavrov. For Russia, post-war historical reality is that Northern Territory is territory of Russia.

To invitation for Putin’s visit to Japan, Lavrov set a condition. “Schedule should be determined by host country. If there is an actual proposal, we will consider it,” said Lavrov. Russia has been carefully watching current Japan’s efforts to reinforce alliance with United States. It is likely that Moscow will answer to the invitation, seeing how Japan-U.S. relation looks like.

But, U.S. attitude on Japan-Russia negotiation is also sober. “We don’t believe that it’s time for business as usual with Russia given their behavior in eastern Ukraine,” told Deputy Spokesperson with Department of State. For Japan, post-war reality has been that Northern Territory issue was supported by U.S. in a context of Cold War. Now, it seems to be different.