Administration Five Years Old

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe cerebrated the fifth anniversary of his returning back to the administration in 2012 on Tuesday. While he has been successful in maintaining his status with moderate public support, his personal agenda to change the Constitution of Japan based on popularity generated with economic growth is still on its way. Embracing a hope to implement it, Abe is focusing on 2020, the year which he won for Tokyo Olympic by chance, to activate new constitution to decorate his political legacy.

Abe’s economic policy called Abenomics has been a tool for constitutional amendment, by which the people was supposed to be paralyzed with improvement, or empty hope, for better life. Actually, Nikkei Average was doubled from the beginning of the administration and economic growth marked the second longest term in post-war era. However, individual consumption does not show a remarkable growth. Real wage of ordinary workers has rather declined for these five months.

Monetary policy still keeps on the easing trend. Even how Bank of Japan led by Chairman Haruhiko Kuroda delivered various unusual measures, including monetary easing on “different dimension,” negative interest rates policy or manipulation of interest rate of long-term bonds, 2% rise of inflation target has not been achieved. National debt is accumulated to the level of ¥110 trillion by positive mobilization of Keynesian policy for building infrastructure.

Although Abe Cabinet still enjoys relatively high popularity as a five-year-old administration, it is still unclear for Abe to be successful in constitutional amendment. Even though Abe has two-third majority for the amendment in both Houses of the Diet, there is a broad skepticism on his argument of changing Article 9, which is one of the three major pillars of Constitution of Japan as well as respect for basic human rights and civil sovereignty. While Abe hopes to submit a draft of new constitution to the Diet next year, even LDP has not been able to achieve a conclusion.

Because his idea of the amendment will undermine basic structure of the Constitution, Abe insists that he is dealing with revolution with his agenda. But, even how he names his welfare policy “Human Resource Revolution” or “Productivity Revolution,” true revolution will not arrive as long as he sticks to traditional interests, represented by Japan Business Federation or Japan Medical Association. While he hopes to take advantage of abdication of Emperor for constitutional amendment in a positive mood of new era, necessity of changing the Constitution has not been proved yet.