Getting Unprofitable Business

Not only resumption of the reactors is going to delay, it is likely for Japan to be an nuclear-free country this summer. A study team in the Nuclear Regulation Authority on Thursday released its draft of new security standard for all nuclear power plants in Japan in July. Regretting the severe accident in the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant two year ago, the authority is going to set a strict regulation to power companies. Nuclear generation in Japan, the geologically unstable islands, is getting an unprofitable business.

New standard will be extremely strict. To protect a plant from tsunami, the authority requires every nuclear plant building seawall being able to block the highest wave the science can expect. Underground active fault must be investigated in the layer of four hundred thousand years ago or later, while the previous standard was about one hundred thirty thousand years ago or later.

To deal with a severe accident, every plant needs to set ventilating system with filter for preventing hydrogen explosion. This requirement will be immediately applied to the boiled water nuclear reactors, while moratorium may be set for pressurized water reactors. In addition, the authority requires emergency operating room for dealing with severe accident, and the second control room to deal with terrorist attack.

A member of the study group told that the regulation should be applied to the currently operating reactors at the beginning of new standard. Now, only two reactors, the third and fourth of Oi Nuclear Power Plant, are operating. The rest out of the fifty reactors are halted, with some reasons such as inspection. Since it is unlikely for those two active reactors to implement those conditions by July, and there is no perspective of resumption of other reactors, all the nuclear generation plants in Japan will be out of operation this summer.

New standard requires all nuclear power business new cost for security. Most companies have been trying to balance the cost by charging higher rate on users. But it is not enough for companies to maintain their traditional benefit from nuclear generation. Foreseeing the decline of power business, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, which oversees power plant business, began to reform power business. To break down the monopoly of power business, the ministry decided to request the separation of power generation from distribution within next five years.

In the background of those cool attitude to power business is intentional reluctance of the business to accepting the magnitude of Fukushima accident and to their voluntary reform. They are so occupied in going back to the missed nuclear business that they cannot find a new way, or new kind of energy, for their survival.

Frustrated with Post-war Democracy

All students in Japan learn that there are two kinds of constitution in the world, soft and hard. And, the Constitution of Japan is one of the hardest ones. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Wednesday openly challenged its hardness in a discussion at the National Diet. He claimed the requirement of constitutional amendment should be eased from two thirds of approval in each houses to one half. While there is a certain amount of support for the amendment inside and outside of Japan, it seems to be less discussion over the true intention of that.”

“Above all, I’m thinking about the amendment of Article 96, with which most parties agree,” told Abe at the plenary meeting, answering the question of a whip of the Restoration Party, Takeo Hiranuma. Hiranuma asked Abe to abolish the constitution, not the amendment, because it had been vested by occupying America right after the World War II. Hiranuma is a great grandson of a brother of wartime Prime Minister, Kiichiro Hiranuma, who was an A-class war criminal. Although Abe dismissed the amendment, he expressed his intention of amending Article 96, which requires two-thirds vote of each houses to propose the amendment.

There actually is skepticism against this two-thirds clause. Since there are too various opinions to amend the whole constitution, Abe seems to think that the first step should be focused on one article, to which enough support can be expected. But it was unusual for a prime minister, who was elected through the process written in the constitution, to propose the amendment of the constitution.

The second step for Abe is to amend Article 9, which renounces war, to make Japan able to fight wars. The right wing movement in Japan supports his idea. Some of the pro-Japan specialists, represented by Richard Armitage, also understand it. However, they need to understand the basic cause of right wing movement. The conservatives in Japan seek a freehand in international relations, based on their resentment brewed through long time post-war era. As we can see in current political turmoil, this swing nation can become both democratic and anti-democratic after the amendment of constitution which reflects a lot of democratic idea including “life, liberty and pursuit of happiness” or “equality under the law.”

If United States wants Japan to be responsible for international affairs, the responsibility can be implemented without the amendment. To support allied force in case of enemy attack, Japan force don’t need the amendment. Reviewing the interpretation of collective defense right is enough, as long as Japan can decide whether or not Japan would use its force. The world must understand that there, partly but firmly, is a frustration against post-war democracy in Japan.

Looking Back in Regret

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Monday made a key address in each houses of National Diet. Being the first major speech after he took office last December, it is recognized as his inauguration address. Although he was careful not to be excessive, the speech was fully based on Abe’s own ideology. The key concept is “recovering the past.”

"The greatest crisis facing Japan lies in the Japanese people having lost confidence. --- Above all, I would say why don’t we restore pride and confidence of our selves,” told Abe in the address. The greatest question to this phrase is “Have we lost our pride and confidence, Mr. Prime Minister?” Though the economy has not recovered from long deflation, Japan still is the third largest economy in the world. It also is one of the models for peaceful reconstructions from war devastate.

The man who lost pride and confidence is himself. His career as a politician is filled with regrets. He has been regretting the nation wide movement against revision of Japan-US Security Treaty in 1960, when his grandfather, Nobusuke Kishi, was prime minister. He also has been sorry about his Father, former Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe, died without making a prime minister. Among all, he was disappointed to himself stepping down as the prime minister due to stomachache six years ago.

Abe becomes powerful when he tries to recover the past. He worked hard as a member of his political group to elect Jun-ichiro Koizumi in LDP presidential election. That was motivated by resentment against a defeat in the 1972 election, when former boss of the group, Takeo Fukuda, had lost to another distinguished leader, Kakuei Tanaka. The election in 2001 was a struggle for taking back their pride of the group Abe’s grandfather established.

Now he is enthusiastic to take back “real Japan.” Is this unreal Japan? Yes, in his mind. He insists that the constitution of Japan was made by Americans, and to establish new independent constitution is a struggle for winning true independence, according to his book. That’s why he is trying to make a large majority of legislators supporting constitutional amendment. He expects to form two-thirds of majority in both houses after the Upper House election this July.

Other than real Japan, he appeals that he is recovering strong economy and the tie of Japan-US alliance, and letting the sufferers of the great earthquake take back their hope of life. But one needs to mind that the most things what he wants to recover are his own pride, confidence and lost cause in politics.

Confrontation in a Village

Doubt against power companies makes scientists aggressive. A team of specialists in the Nuclear Regulation Authority generally agreed on a judgment that a fault right beneath the Tsuruga Nuclear Power Plant was active. That means the plant can be dismantled because of possible earthquake. The decision was based on a new standard of assessing the danger of nuclear plant, which was set after the accident of the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. This is a struggle inside a group of people who interested in nuclear power, or “nuclear village,” in which scientists are regaining its credibility leaving skepticism on power company unsolved.

The specialists group led by Kunihiko Shimazaki, honorary professor of Tokyo University in seismology and the deputy chairman of the authority, adopted on Monday the assessment report of Tsuruga, which acknowledged high possibility of the D-1 fault under the second reactor of the plant to have been moved 95 thousand years ago. The guideline of national government prohibits building nuclear plant on an movable active fault. It also defines an active fault that moved after 120-130 thousand years ago should be recognized as moving in the future.

The Japan Atomic Power Company, which owns Tsuruga plant, is making argument about the report. According to Tokyo Shimbun, one of the officials protested indicating a possibility of political intervention, saying “The authority is one of the governmental organization. It under the control of Prime Minister.” But the decision of the group would not be overturned, and the fortune of Tsuruga still is going to dismantlement.

Power Companies in Japan has been complaining to new stricter standard. Before the Fukushima accident, they could build new plants on an active fault by regarding it to be unmovable. The authority, established after Fukushima accident, shifted its stance to “the safety side.” As long as a fault is determined not to be active, the authority would not allow a nuclear plant on it. This hard attitude against plant owners has certain public support, because the power companies have not made much effort to release information to the public, but have only been lobbying to lawmakers and bureaucrats.

“For Japan, the most important subject for preventing severe accident in nuclear plant is preparation for earthquake and tsunami. In this point of view, we have to request strict measures,” commented the chairman of the authority, Shun-ichi Tanaka, in an interview of Asahi Shimbun. Tanaka had been recognized as one of the residents of the Nuclear village. But he was born in Fukushima. It is possible that he has shifted from technological development to preserving safety, after losing his beautiful hometown. A lot of people are watching the opposition among nuclear specialists, expecting the village to move its viewpoint from national project to ordinary citizens.

Indifferent to the Poors

Here comes a policy harsh for the poor again. Making the difference from the welfare policy of former DPJ government, Abe administration decided to cut public assistance for low-income family starting in August. Although it is mainly aimed at avoiding national debt increase, main reason should be the high priority on public infrastructure. This shift in distribution of public wealth is dubbed as “from human to concrete,” just the reverse expression of DPJ’s phrase.

The government of Japan holds an aid system for low-income family to support daily life, school and medical care. The decision was to reduce the benefits for daily life by 7.3%, which amounts to ¥74 billion. Meanwhile, it will save ¥45 billion in medical care by counting on cheaper generic medicines. Although a new budget will be set for who are active for finding jobs, 96% of recipients are going to suffer from this budget cut. In the model of a family with parents in 40s and two kids in elementary and mid school, their income will down from ¥282 to ¥262 thousand per year.

There have actually been problems of false recipient who are not willing to find jobs and staying home doing nothing. Most part of reduction of daily life support is the adjustment along with decline of commodity price. Since the distinction between false recipient and who deadly need is difficult, the budget cut will affect most low-income families.

Different from American citizens standing up for protests, the typical action a desperate Japanese is taking is committing suicide. There had been over thirty thousands suicide records every year. Public assistance is not only a matter of national budget, but humanity. Under DPJ administration, the government was serious about addressing poverty. The number of suicide in 2012 was reduced to the level of less than thirty thousands, the first time in these fifteen years. During DPJ administration, also declined the number of students who left their school with financial reason.

In LDP administration, the gravity is shifting from the poor to the rich. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe emphasizes that he will make a society in which diligent people are rewarded. People in the party argue that the budget cut is aimed to incorrect receiving of governmental money. But it is hard for applying the policy only to the targeted people.

The discussion is close to the long dispute between the Democrats and Republicans in US. In Japan, the rift between the rich and the poor were taken to the limit in 2009, when LDP administration collapsed. The resumed administration of LDP now needs to be sensitive to new type of compassionate conservatism.

Dropped Promise

Nuclear power has long been recognized in Japan as an effective driving force for cutting carbon emission off. After the accident of the First Fukushima Nuclear Plant, it ironically became a factor for increasing carbon emission for its potential danger. Dropping the promise in 2009, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that Japan no longer held a goal of 25% cut of greenhouse gas emission based on 1990 level. The alternative for nuclear power in his mind should be thermal power generation. Why not renewable energy?

In a meeting of the United Nations in the fall 2009, then Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama declared that Japan would reduce 25% of GHG emission from 1990 level by 2020. That was an ambitious target even European Union could not have expected. As many know, Hatoyama is a man who often makes a statement without any clear perspectives. It became obvious that his ambition had been highly dependent on nuclear energy. That’s why DPJ administration was positive for nuclear power to the extent of exporting nuclear plant to developing countries.

Even after the severe accident in Fukushima, DPJ government was reluctant to give 25% goal up. It was not only because of disgrace in the world society, but also because DPJ wanted to destroy the traditional energy authority in Japan. Officially admitting thermal power might encourage the oligopoly of power generation companies. But it could not find effective way for shifting to renewable power.

Saying that it is irresponsible to pursue unstable alternatives, LDP leaders are highly negative against renewable energy. Abe’s announcement of dropping 25% goal was not surprising for LDP top leader. There is no major objection to it so far in both terms of domestic and international.

Abe, however, used to be one of the most ambitious leaders on climate change. As Prime Minister, he made a plan called “Cool Earth 50,” in which Japan proposed cutting global CO2 emission in half by 2050. He also launched “Team -6%” in the Ministry of Environment to implement Japan’s goal written in the Kyoto Protocol. In this second administration, Abe has not mentioned his ambition on climate change.

We still have nearly eight years by the end of 2020. It is unnecessary for Prime Minister of Japan to announce the drop of 25% target now. The government of Japan has not explored every possible way to develop renewable energy. With pressure from the energy sector, in which politicians, bureaucrats, academics and companies are colluded with each other, Abe may have decided not to collide with old established authority in Japan. As its result, the structure of Japan, in which the establishments live on the sacrifice of underdogs living in rural area where nuclear plants were build, would not be changed by a great tragedy for the first time in these one thousand years.

Suggestion of Dialogue

The Chinese top leader, Xi Jin Ping, on Friday showed a positive attitude for high-level dialogue between Japan and China. While it is not sure whether he requested a direct talk with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe or lower level talks, he at least suggested diplomatic approach over Senkaku Islands issue. If Japan agrees with introducing that approach, the tension between those two countries will be lowered. PM Abe had, however, already denied diplomatic approach on this issue. Japan does not have as many cards as China has.

“Although there is a difference of standpoints between us, it is important to make effort to solve by dialogue and discussion,” said Xi in the meeting with the leader of New Komeito, Natsuo Yamaguchi, in Beijing. Yamaguchi handed Abe’s letter over Xi and requested a summit talk between two top leaders. “I would seriously consider high-level dialogue. It is important to build a circumstance for that,” answered Xi.

The words of Xi were reported in Japan as a positive signal of the Chinese leader for Senkaku solution. After the governmental purchase of Senkaku Islands, the Japanese government has been annoyed with invasion of Chinese ships around the islands. The general expectation in Japan is to make diplomatic channel work. But the things are not so simple.

On Japanese side, PM Abe doesn’t expect diplomatic approach on Senkaku. In his essay for a magazine, Bungei-Shunju, last December, he emphasized that there was no room for diplomatic solution in Senkaku issue, because the island was inherent in Japan. For him, there is nothing to talk about sovereignty and defense is all that Japan has to do. “It is a matter of actual power,” he described in the essay.

On Chinese side, the status of Xi in the communist community will be eroded, if Abe is not taking Xi’s words seriously. Xi might have showed a softer approach in a face-saving way for the leader of Soka Gakkai, Daisaku Ikeda, who has been maintaining close relationship with Chinese leaders. Soka Gakkai is the power base for New Komeito. But Xi has nothing to owe to Abe. There is a speculation in Japan that Xi will be taking harder way, if his suggestion are ignored.

It would be good enough for Xi to get a promise of dialogue, because diplomacy proves the existence of dispute over Senkaku Islands, which Japan has long been denying. Even a promise of putting aside this issue means a concession of Japan and a point to China.

It has been over forty years, since two top leaders, Tanaka Kakuei and Zhou En Lai, secretly agreed with postponing this issue to future generation. At that time, diplomacy was working. Zhou, however, left a famous words; “Diplomacy is a continuation of war by other means.” Abe’s no-dispute-exists policy might be dropping one important method of “war.”