Dropped Promise

Nuclear power has long been recognized in Japan as an effective driving force for cutting carbon emission off. After the accident of the First Fukushima Nuclear Plant, it ironically became a factor for increasing carbon emission for its potential danger. Dropping the promise in 2009, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that Japan no longer held a goal of 25% cut of greenhouse gas emission based on 1990 level. The alternative for nuclear power in his mind should be thermal power generation. Why not renewable energy?

In a meeting of the United Nations in the fall 2009, then Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama declared that Japan would reduce 25% of GHG emission from 1990 level by 2020. That was an ambitious target even European Union could not have expected. As many know, Hatoyama is a man who often makes a statement without any clear perspectives. It became obvious that his ambition had been highly dependent on nuclear energy. That’s why DPJ administration was positive for nuclear power to the extent of exporting nuclear plant to developing countries.

Even after the severe accident in Fukushima, DPJ government was reluctant to give 25% goal up. It was not only because of disgrace in the world society, but also because DPJ wanted to destroy the traditional energy authority in Japan. Officially admitting thermal power might encourage the oligopoly of power generation companies. But it could not find effective way for shifting to renewable power.

Saying that it is irresponsible to pursue unstable alternatives, LDP leaders are highly negative against renewable energy. Abe’s announcement of dropping 25% goal was not surprising for LDP top leader. There is no major objection to it so far in both terms of domestic and international.

Abe, however, used to be one of the most ambitious leaders on climate change. As Prime Minister, he made a plan called “Cool Earth 50,” in which Japan proposed cutting global CO2 emission in half by 2050. He also launched “Team -6%” in the Ministry of Environment to implement Japan’s goal written in the Kyoto Protocol. In this second administration, Abe has not mentioned his ambition on climate change.

We still have nearly eight years by the end of 2020. It is unnecessary for Prime Minister of Japan to announce the drop of 25% target now. The government of Japan has not explored every possible way to develop renewable energy. With pressure from the energy sector, in which politicians, bureaucrats, academics and companies are colluded with each other, Abe may have decided not to collide with old established authority in Japan. As its result, the structure of Japan, in which the establishments live on the sacrifice of underdogs living in rural area where nuclear plants were build, would not be changed by a great tragedy for the first time in these one thousand years.