Obama Looks Like Loopy

President of the United States, Barack Obama, hailed the chemical weapons pact on Syria agreed with Russia as deterrence against further use of chemical weapons. While Syria joined Chemical Weapons Convention, the administration of Bashar al-Assad resumed attack against rebels, declaring victory on diplomacy to prevent U.S. air strike. It is unclear whether the pact will work for dismantling chemical weapons in Syria. What is obvious is that Obama showed inability of U.S. to achieve the goal he had set and inconsistency of his diplomacy. The style he took reminded one of shaky handlings of diplomacy by former Prime Minister, Yukio Hatoyama, who was called “loopy” by U.S. officials

Last year, Obama drew a “red line” on the civil war in Syria, saying “a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around and utilized.” Although there are arguments about the definition of “red line” and consequence of crossing it, it was clear that Obama determined use of force against Syria on recognition that “red line” had been crossed, and then he requested approval of Congress. Now, he is justifying his restriction as if U.S. threat had worked.

Deterrence might be a key word when a leader defends himself. After entanglement over relocation of Futenma U.S. Marine Base in Okinawa, in which he failed to find alternative place and settled in accepting original plan to move it to Henoko, Hatoyama explained the base is needed in Okinawa as deterrence. The common elements between Hatoyama and Obama is justification without achieving original goals. Main reason why both of them could not achieve the goal was that the goal was unachievable from the beginning. They simply did not know that.

The critical condition they commonly had was having few friends. Seeing Futenma relocation out of Okinawa is unrealistic, lawmakers of his party, Democratic Party of Japan turned their back to Hatoyama. Obama also faced reluctance of allied nations on military option to Syria, which, for instance the British showed apparently.

Revealing immatureness as leading party, Hatoyama’s failure brought a crucial damage on DPJ administration. The world needs to see what kind of consequence will be brought by Obama diplomacy on Syria. If he failed in dismantling chemical weapons in Syria, credibility of U.S. diplomacy, and also U.S. military power, will obviously decline, leaving the fact that U.S. could do nothing on 1,400 victims of chemical weapons. There would be a lesson: Do not say empty promise.

Enthusiasm on Epsilon

However the North Koreans assert it as a missile, the Japanese celebrated successful launch of Epsilon rocket, new series of domestic-made rockets, on Saturday. The significance of the rocket is cheap cost for one launch, enabled by active use of computers, instead of human power. The Government of Japan welcomes the successful launch as marking new era of Japan’s space development, which was focusing on business and security.

Epsilon went through two accidents. The first was delay of schedule when dysfunctional line connection was found in ground control system. The second was abrupt abandonment nineteen second before launching when computer falsely detected abnormal posture of the body. The second failure seemed to be caused by high dependence on computer to cut launching cost. This time, although it delayed fifteen minutes by access of a ship to warning zone on the seawater, Epsilon successfully left ground with bright fire and white fume on the watch of fans of space technologies.

It took twelve years for this new type of rocket deployed since last type was developed. By simplifying the process of assembly and taking advantage of artificial intelligence of computer on inspection, the cost for launching an Epsilon was lowered to ¥3.8 billion, or $38 million, which was as cheap as one thirds of the cost for a current H2A rocket.

Main purpose of cost down is competitiveness in business. The Government of Japan revised its Basic Plan for Space Policy in January, in which the need for space technology in business was stressed. “[T]he space industry is required to respond to global needs, such as space development in the Asian and other emerging markets and international cooperation in disaster prevention, breaking away from the current overdependence on governmental demands,” the plan tells. Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, expects positive impact of space technology on economic growth.

Meanwhile, the development of Epsilon has been sought with security requirement. The government insisted on necessity for maintaining technology of solid fuel rockets, which can be launched quickly in contingency. Citing the improvement of navigation satellite system of China, the Plan emphasizes “demands for safety and security in light of the recent international situation.”

When one discusses technology in security context, the key point is intention. When an administration that wants to reshape self-defense force into “military force,” developments in space technology can be regarded as aggressive. Abe administration is poor in performance for persuading its activity, resulting it to be recognized as unilateral capacity building.

Not Under Control

People in Japan are getting worried about their national leader being called liar. Skepticisms have grown against a remark of Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in the speech at International Olympic Committee general meeting, in which Tokyo won 2020 Olympic Game. He told the world that contaminated water in the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant was under control, although the water had uncontrollably been flowing into the sea. It is intolerable for the nation to be labeled as having made a lie in order to invite Olympic Game. Media have been actively reporting about Abe’s dishonesty.

It is not Abe who actually is trying to control the water in the site of broken nuclear power plant, but Tokyo Electric Power Company. Kazuhiko Yamashita, a fellow in technological assistance of TEPCO, revealed his recognition on the situation of contaminated water as not being controlled in a meeting of Democratic Party of Japan in Koriyama, Fukushima, on Friday. “Predicted risks are controlled,” told Yamashita “however, something unpredicted had happened, which I apologize.” According to Asahi Shimbun, his comment was made after a lawmaker of DPJ urged to say a truth.

The staffs of Abe are enthusiastic on following Abe’s remarks up. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, has been explaining what Abe had meant. “Effects of radioactive materials are contained within the harbor attached to the site. In terms of preventing effects of contaminated water from going to outer sea, Prime Minister told it was ‘under control,’” said Suga in a press conference on Friday.

There are two points we need to pay attention to in Suga’s explanation. One is that he did not deny the flowing of contaminated water to outer sea. What he said was that “effect” had not been seen. This would be interpreted as "Ok, the contaminated water might have been spread to outer sea. But anyway, what is the matter? No effect of that has been found so far."

Abe told that radioactive water had been “completely blocked” within a 0.3-square-kilometer area in the harbor in IOC meeting. Suga did not mention whether Abe’s elaboration was correct or not. It takes years to determine the “effect” of radioactive materials is detected. Actually, a radioactive material, tritium, was detected outside silt fence, by which Abe told the water was blocked.

The second is that Suga ironically admitted that the rest of situations except radioactive materials in the harbor was not under control. Underground water is even now flowing into the sea by 300 metric tons a day. Contaminated water stocked in the site keeps on leaking from seams of the tanks. Overall situation in the site is not under control and crises of the nuclear accident is ongoing even after two and half years have passed.

Distortion of Tax Policy

The question for Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, was not about whether do it or not, but where the tax money goes. As he decided to raise consumption tax rate next April, he is showing his willingness to take measures for stimulating economy, in a manner of returning tax money to economy. Basically, the primary purpose of this tax hike was to stabilize social security system. It will be an unprecedented distortion of tax policy.

Abe administration reportedly considers delivering policy package for economic stimulus, at the same time when he officially announces the tax hike on October 1^st. The officials explained that they needed to do something for easing the impact on economy. Total amount of fiscal spending for that is regarded as ¥5 trillion, or $50 billion, worth of 2% out of expected surplus with the tax hike by 3%. Actual income from the tax hike, therefore, should be only 1%, the level which some of Abe’s personal advisers have been recommended.

The bills for raising the rate of consumption tax were passed in the Diet under the administration of Democratic Party of Japan last year. The cause for them was to maintain social security system, which has long been suffered from expansion of spending and income shortage in foreseeable future. Abe’s economic policy is turning down that idea and pouring two-thirds of the additional income by the tax hike into some part of economy, supposedly old-type infrastructure industries which consist of political basis of Liberal Democratic Party.

Ministry of Finance, the organization of fiscal fundamentalists, basically opposes this initiative laid by Prime Minister’s Residence. If the package expands with various requests from business community, it will be highly possible that the policy ultimately needs more issuance of national bonds, making fiscal balance of the government worse. Additional accumulation of national bonds may lead to further incredibility of Japan economy. Actual estimate of MoF for the stimulus was around ¥2 trillion, or $20 billion.

What Abe is worrying about would not be the future of Japan economy, but his political future. His biggest concern is how the tax hike damages his fundamental political resource: popularity. If he loses political power by economic decline caused by the tax hike, he will not be able to reach his more important goals, which are constitutional amendment, strengthening Japan in terms of military power, visiting Yasukuni Shrine regardless of neighbors’ opposition, or justifying Japan’s activity in World War II including hiring comfort women. After all, it is his personal struggle for his honor.

Taking Advantage of Diplomatic Momentum

With initiative of the chair country of Group 20, the Syria issue turned its shape of military showdown to diplomatic solution. To Russian proposal of putting chemical weapons in Syria under international control, President of the United States, Barack Obama, began to explore other ways than using force. However, it is still skeptical whether both great powers can agree with a legally binding resolution. Japan, both as a close ally of U.S. and geographically close neighbor of Russia, is going back and forth between the two.

In his address to the nation, Obama showed a careful attitude of current developments in international community on chemical weapons in Syria. “[O]ver the last few days, we’ve seen some encouraging signs,” told Obama. “[T]he Russian government has indicated a willingness to join with the international community in pushing Assad to give up his chemical weapons,” Obama added with his recognition that the initiative might prevent use of force.

It is unknown whether U.S. is going to cooperate with Russia, until Secretary of State, John Kerry, will realize the seriousness of Russia on the initiative in the meeting with Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, in Geneva on Thursday. On a draft of resolution submitted to United Nations Security Council by France, Russia showed its negative attitude against authorizing military option in the name of U.N., while U.S. is willing to join the resolution. The difference between U.S. and Russia on attacking Syria is still large.

Japan basically welcomed the Russian initiative. “We take it as positive action,” told Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga in a press conference. By doing so, the administration led by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe tried to maintain current positive relationship with Russia. On the other hand, he was taking care of the standpoint of U.S., describing “We support the efforts of related parties to prevent from use of chemical weapons again.”

However, the main point for the Cabinet was domestic response to the issue. “It is not indifferent for our country,” said Suga “that chemical weapons were used in Syria, which has a close military tie with North Korea.” By connecting the situation in Syria to Japan’s security, he supposedly indicated that it was possible for Japan to support military option in Syria, or to join some activities in the name of self-defense.

Abe administration wants to get a momentum for reinterpretation of the Constitution on collective self-defense right. It also is obvious that the Cabinet is taking advantage of Syria issue to pave the way for it.

Two and a Half Years Passed

It is the 2.5 years anniversary of the Great East Japan Earthquake today. About twenty-nine thousand people are still displaced left their own houses. Displaced people in Fukushima have no future of returning back, due to the broken nuclear power plant substantially uncontrollable. International community needs to be careful of the situation of human rights of those sufferers.

Most displaced people are living in temporary houses. Those are actually shabby makes prepared by the government, hot and humid in summer and extremely cold in winter. With delay of schedule to build up, most residents will have to spend the third winter after the disaster happened.

Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has been ignoring true situation of them. “I’m presenting a plan for people in Fukushima of returning back to the house by this summer,” he said in the press conference on March 11^th, the day of second anniversary of the quake. The government of Japan showed nothing about the schedule for their return. To implement the promise, the government needed to make a plan for cleaning the contaminated land up for living. The Ministry of Environment gave up its effort to be done by the end of next March, because they simply realized it was impossible. New goal has not been presented.

More serious is contaminated water from the site. While Abe assured International Olympic Committee that the water had been under control, the water kept on flowing to the sea uncontrollably. Media reported that there had formerly been a river in the place where First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant is. Major ground water stream still exist deep in the site and flowing to the sea. The exit of the stream is about ten kilometers off the shore, far outside from annexed port of the plant, within where Abe told the contaminated water was contained.

Although Abe is highly irresponsible for ignoring his promise to make returning schedule for displaced people, growing number of suffers are abandoning to go home. Dishonest attitude of politicians and bureaucrats makes them feeling disappointed. Young families are reluctant to go back to where radioactively contaminated. Even how old people want to go home, the government does not show whether they can do it in their lifetime.

Looking to the activeness on enthusiasm to Olympic games, constitution amendment, and economic recovery, Abe administration looks like trying to forget the disaster. It will not be tolerated for both people in Japan and international community, if he ignores the hardship of sufferers and the unprecedented maritime pollution by radioactive materials.

Tax Hike Ready

Office of Cabinet released revised gross domestic products between April and June this year on Monday. It marked 3.8% surplus of real GDP and 3.7% of nominal GDP as adjusted number to yearly indicator. The law for raising rate of consumption tax requires economic growth as a condition and its benchmark is 2% growth in real GDP and 3% in nominal. The result of the second quarter this year has fulfilled it. Although it is obvious for Japanese economy to be ready for the tax hike, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, is still worried, or pretending to be so, about situation of fundamental situation of economy.

When the office announced temporary result last month, it was 2.6% surplus of real GDP and 2.9% of nominal GDP. The statistics has been apparently improved in a month. Capital investment turned from decline in temporary report to growth, marking 1.3% of surplus, for the first time in last six quarters. Retail services and construction industries had contributed to it.

It must have positive impact on Abe’s decision for raising consumption tax rate from 5% to 8% next April, and to 10% in October of 2015. “It added a positive element,” told Akira Amari, Minister of Economy and Finance, “and it is important to enhance the resilience from temporary damage, when the tax rate is raised.” Indicating that Abe would announce his decision on it on October 1^st, Amari revealed his intention of releasing a package of economic stimulus as well.

Having said that, Abe is still careful of the impact on economy. The report of the Office of Cabinet also showed decline of individual consumptions, marking 0.1% of minus. Monthly stats on basic wage have consecutively been declining for over a year. While commodity price is going up as PM Abe intended, income of families has not sufficiently been grown.

Asahi Shimbun on Tuesday reported that Abe already decided that the condition for raising consumption tax was met. Considering growing requirement of lawmakers in his Liberal Democratic Party for active measures on stimulating economy, he will be picking up positive policies as much as possible. While the possibility of tax relief for more capital investment and additional subsidy for low-income families are discussed, main menu would be leaning on investing infrastructures as usual, adding more burden on national budget.

Some foreign media reported the invitation of Tokyo Olympic Games was the “fourth arrow” of Abenomics, most economists recognize that sports event as short-term stimulus for Japan economy, and require fundamental reform of economy and growth policies in long terms.