Another Defibrillator

The Bank of Japan decided further monetary easing, raising the limit of annual purchase of long-term national bond from ¥50 trillion to ¥80 trillion. The decision would also increase the purchase of exchange trade funds and real estate investment trust by three times. Among nine members of policy committee, four opposed the decision, concerning negative impact on Japanese economy. The policy of BoJ firmly reflects determination of Shinzo Abe administration that is straightly heading toward the achievement of economic agenda.

By injecting more money into the markets, BoJ looks to supporting economy from the side of monetary policy. Consumption after introducing new rate of sales tax in April declined more than governmental officials expected. Gross domestic products declined by 7.1% in the second quarter of this year. BoJ will review the perspective of growth this year from 1.0% in the time of July to the lower. Although commodity price is currently getting settled from the enthusiasm in April, the bank assessed that further measure was necessary.

The crucial element of the monetary easing was further tax hike next year. Abe is going to make final decision on it late December. BoJ’s policy was aimed at paving the way to delivering a “go” signal. Stock market showed positive response with significant rally in Nikkei Average. Yen against U.S. dollar steeply declined, a preferable phenomenon for exporters. Ministry of Finance, to which BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda long affiliated, firmly believes that there will be no hesitation on further tax hike.

Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare approved new guideline of Government Pension Investment Fund, which allowed more flexible operation of its money. With its new policy, GPIF may sell out a great amount of long-term national bond, which can cause abrupt hike of long-term interest. Monetary easing policy of BoJ may support the volatility of long-term bond, as MoF expects.

However, there is no guarantee of revitalization of consumption. As long as salary does not show positive figure, there will be no perspective of success in getting rid of deflation. Even a possibility of stagnation will be increase. Compared to the situation of big corporation in big cities, regional economy is lagging behind.

In the time when skepticism on Abenomics is spreading, the stimulus policy sounds like defibrillator for declining Japanese economy. “There is a risk of delaying in conversion of deflation mind, which has been in progress,” told Kuroda about the reason of his new policy. However, it is unclear this isolated policy, totally going to different direction from U.S. Federal Reserve, may work preferably.

Struggle over Agricultural Governance

It was recognized as a firm dispute against the reform initiated by Shinzo Abe administration. The Central Union of Agricultural Co-operatives, or JA-Zenchu, released its voluntary reform plan, which would preserve their power to regulate each regional agricultural group all over Japan. It is obvious that the administration will oppose and take further effort for reform. It is a war declaration by farmers’ union against the neo-liberalist regime.

Having suffered from consecutive pressure from Abe administration, Zenchu has been considering its own reform plan. The crucial point had been whether legislative endorsement should be remained in the body. In Agricultural Co-operatives Act, Zenchu has a power to supervise regional agricultural agencies for maintaining stable management of production.

The voluntary plan appealed to remain the power in Zenchu. If the power is stripped, Zenchu will lose its role to train agricultural management or to coordinate the share of products for regional groups. Without that power, Zenchu will no longer need the huge body and officers. The reform is in other words a survival race for Zenchu.

However, the voluntary reform plan is nothing but maintenance of current old system. While it abandoned its power to “universal” oversight on regional groups, legislative basis for Zenchu will be remained. It also determined the role of Zenchu as consultation for agricultural management of each farmers, leader of delivering famers’ opinion and coordination of various interests of farmers. It actually means nothing changes.

The requirement of Abe administration has been reforming the system competent with the liberalism in international trade framework. Although each farmer has been serious about developing foreign market for their own, Zenchu has been lagging behind of presenting solution, consistent with its own interest as leading organization. There is no answer in the reform plan to address up-to-date issues.

Abe administration will require Zenchu further steps for reform. With disappointment on voluntary effort, the administration will put the reform forward with stricter measures for slimming the organization up. In the background, there is interest of corporations trying to invest agricultural business. In terms of making Japanese agriculture competitive, the reform of current production system is definitely needed. But it is still unclear whether private companies can is a solution of current problem. The struggle between Zenchu and Abe administration, in its nature, is a simple adversary over generating their own interests.

Because It Was Born This Way

Shinzo Abe administration keeps on persuading the public that the negotiation with North Korea over Japanese abductees is on the right track. After the meeting between high officials of both governments late October, the administration has been spreading information that Japanese government made a great effort in the negotiation. Why are they insisting on this issue, even making a gambling visit to Pyongyang against negative opinion of abductees’ families? That is because the administration was born this way.

Prime Minister Abe firmly believes in that abduction issue distinguishes his administration from any other administrations. With receiving appeals from those families for years, Abe revealed the existence of abduction by North Korean government when he was Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary in Jun-ichiro Koizumi administration. It was actually a ground breaking finding. With fundamental credit from Koizumi, Abe was promoted as a figure eligible for a Prime Minister.

But achieving final solution is not so easy as finding the problem. Abe was not successful at this issue in his first administration with pressuring policy toward Kim Jong-il regime. Although Abe seemed to have grabbed a chance, with softer attitude, to make a progress in young Kim Jong-un administration, the negotiation has stacked with lazy investigation on Japanese-Koreans by officials of the North.

The meeting late October was undeniably fruitless. While the North promised thorough investigation on Japanese in the country, there appeared no news on Japanese abductees. The chief of delegate, Jun-ichi Ihara, Bureau Chief of Asia-Pacific Affairs in Ministry of Foreign Affairs, revealed no information of the schedule for next meeting or of the first interim report on the investigation.

Reflecting disappointment on the outcome, the government started asserting that their attempts were not failing. Possibly with a leak from governmental officials, news agencies reported a story that Japanese government strongly required the North “persuasive evidence” on the investigation in the meeting last month. “We have been strongly requiring sincere investigation with honest manner and no fabrication,” told Abe in discussion in the House of Representatives.

Those assertions will not work for pressuring the North, rather revealing weaker standpoint of Abe. If no progress is made on abduction issue, it will erode credibility of Abe administration. Whether or not his mother told him that there was nothing wrong with loving who you were, his self-admiration as a leader determined on rescuing abductees makes Japanese standpoint weak.

Subsidy for Housewives

Being frustrated with subsidy for housewife without her own income or with low income, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, required his consultative commission to consider reviewing current system. The reform can be introducing broader tax reduction for working housewives to implement his growth strategy. However, it is unclear whether the new policy will encourage working women or discourage housewives who want to stay home to take care of family.

Private companies and public service offices distribute subsidy for workers’ spouse for supporting to take care of daily life of family. According to research by the government, the average of subsidy for spouse in private companies is around ¥14,000 a month, while for workers in the national government is about ¥13,000. Those subsidy stops, if annual income of spouse reached ¥1.03 million, or ¥1.30 million in some cases.

This system is unpopular for working wives, because the harder she works, the less likely she will be covered. For a worker who earn annual income of ¥1.03 million, monthly income should be around ¥86,000. It is even lower than some part time job by college students. If a wife has high skill and profile, she can never expect accepting the subsidy at all. So some working wives report her income as lower than actual amount, violating law. Some others abandons taking job to receive the subsidy.

Leaving a question about why he only looks at housewives, leaving househusbands aside, Abe takes on the side of working women. “I will remove obstruction against working women,” he told in the Consultative Conference for Economy and Finance. The reform will raise the border line between the subsidized and non-subsidized. It is likely that subsidy for spouse with income less than ¥1.03million will be reduced.

It is still unclear whether the reform will work for increasing working mothers. Wives with high motivation and ability has already been working on her own, regardless subsidy is applied or not. For a housewife who had been making illegal report with short amount on her income, new system will be an incentive for correct report. However, for wives with some reason of being unable to work, necessity for taking care of her elderly mother or father for example, new system makes her life unaffordable.

Realizing that one half of election voters are women, Abe’s woman policy has an aspect of populism. While stressing “society with woman brightness” or “woman participation to society,” he is taking advantage of women for his growth policy. However, his strategy may be labeling women with no job as lazy.

Selection of Preferable Country

The government of Japan paved a way to contribute to other country’s military operation, which it has been strictly regulating for years. Distinguishing preferable countries in the world from others, Japan’s official development assistance will take further strategic measures in addressing its national interest. Under a controversial principle of preemptive pacifism, Shinzo Abe administration took a step forward to undermine the Constitution of Japan.

It will be a review of the charter of official development assistance by the end of this year. The review should be the first attempt since last revision in 2003. Although current charter prohibits assistance to other country’s military, new version will allow it with condition of helping unmilitary operations such as social maintenance or disaster relief. New charter will determine that Japan’s assistance will avoid being used for military purpose or encouraging international conflict. But it is unclear how Japanese government will assess the situation of foreign country’s military.

Japanese government will change the name of the charter from “Official Development Assistance Charter” to “Development Cooperation Charter.” This kind of change is frequently used by bureaucrats, which firmly believe in that changing trivial part of national policy can lead to fundamental change without public attention. By removing “assistance,” the government aims to change the substantial concept of it from assistance on developing countries to cooperating all countries. Even if a country had been developed enough beyond the standard of Japan’s assistance, Japan will be able to keep on helping it, as long as it is preferable partner of Japan.

Japan’s strategy for developing country has been considered in terms of dealing with China’s bold involvement in many projects of nations in Africa, Asia and South America. Regarding official development assistance as a critical tool for Japan’s diplomatic strategy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been frustrated with restrictions built in the charter. The revision of it reflects strategic mind of the ministry.

However, the revision may cause fundamental change of the concept of foreign aid. Positive assistance will accordingly be done to a country cooperative to Japan. A country not selected will have negative mind against Japan. Although the assistance has been provided in a view of interest of world society, not Japan’s national interest, it will be realized as a tool of traditional developed power, making more enemies in the world than ever.

New Environmental Agreement

Government of Japan and United States mostly reached a new agreement on environmental regulation in the bases of U.S. Force in Japan. Supporting current Status of Force Agreement, new agreement will lay stricter standard on environment. The government of Okinawa has been demanding that agreement for years. The timing of the announcement strongly indicated political incentive of the governments to support preferable candidate in the gubernatorial election weeks later. But people in Okinawa may be frustrated with apparent intervention of national government.

U.S. Force in Japan has voluntarily been applying Japan Environmental General Standard from 1995, acknowledging Japan’s demand on preventing land and sea pollution. However, actual operation for protecting environment has not been strictly regulated. New agreement will allow Japanese government investigating accident inside U.S. bases and research of bases before it will be returned to Japan.

If new standard are activated, Japanese government will not be required to get allowance from U.S. Force for the investigation. Local government, including Okinawa expects the research becoming easier. The governor in Okinawa, Hirokazu Nakaima, praised national government, saying “I appreciate the government for making effort in difficult agreement. I want it to be finished in an efficient shape.”

For Okinawa gubernatorial election on November 16^th, Nakaima has been said to be lagging behind of Takeshi Onaga, former mayor of Naha city. The reason is clear: Nakaima turned off his campaign promise at last election four years ago, which was relocating Futenma Air Base out of Okinawa. Most people in Okinawa realized that change of policy as betrayal against people’s hope. National government is backing Nakaima as much as it can, for implementing the agreement with U.S. to move Futenma base to Henoko in northern Okinawa. The government has, however, been buying broad dissatisfaction in Okinawa.

Before arguing the fairness of policy, some discuss that new environmental agreement will not work at all. The agreement includes a clause of condition, which allows U.S. Force an exclusive administrative right. Using the right, U.S. Force can dismiss a request from Japanese government with exercising that right. In addition, Tokyo Shimbun revealed that Japanese government would be subsidizing U.S. Force, when the force would make effort in taking environment-conscious measures.

On this issue, Ministry of Foreign Affairs asserted that it would not be a subsidy for U.S., but an investment for the land returning to Japan. Say it after having made a deal of actual return.

Poaching Coral

More fishermen in Ogasawara Island, located in Pacific Ocean one thousand kilometers south of Tokyo are getting witness numerous bright lights on the offshore horizon every night. They are robbery ships from China, poaching coral for jewelry. Although the location is outside of Japan’s territorial sea area, it is within exclusive economic zone. The government of China has took no action against those ships so far.

Ogasawara Islands consist of about thirty islands. Rich in unique species, Ogasawara was registered as World Natural Heritage by United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization. Although governments of Japan and United States agreed with putting Ogasawara under administration of U.S. in San Francisco Peace Treaty in 1945, it was returned to Japan in 1968. China has not disputed its sovereignty on those islands in any way.

It was this September when people in Ogasawara realized a number of Chinese ships appeared. According to the report of Yomiuri Shimbun, forty-six boats were confirmed on October 13^th. Coral jewelry is highly popular in China. Among them, red coral has the highest value, which price was raised from ¥3.4 million per kilogram in 2012 to ¥6.3 million in 2014. Fishermen in Ogasawara, being strictly regulated in their capture of coral by Japanese government, have been frustrated the crime by the Chinese. Environmental damage is also significant, because coral reef is a place for fish to incubate their eggs.

Japan Coast Guard supposes that those boats might come from the sea area around Okinawa, where patrol on those poaching was enforced. Laying stricter patrol in Ogasawara area, the Guard has arrested multiple captains of those boats, in suspect of violation of Foreigners’ Fishery Regulation Act. They often move without lights, not to be found, Japanese fishermen accuse them as causing collision of boats.

The government of Japan has not determined those activities of Chinese boats as a similar action of China seen around Senkaku Island, where Chinese government asserts their sovereignty. That shows contradiction of China. Their appeal is not based on international law, but on business benefit. Because they realized huge reserve of oil, the Chinese want Senkaku. Because they have not found such a great benefit in Ogasawara, no assertion on Ogasawara has not seen so far. If they discover some great resource in Ogasawara, they will look for some preferable reason for their ownership, maybe historical facts several thousand years ago.