Still Relying on Rebalance

The Japanese government must have received a message from President of the United States as an encouragement. In his address to the students of Queensland University in Brisbane, Australia, President Barack Obama stressed his conviction on rebalancing policy to Asia-Pacific region. He reportedly made a new step in his policy, based on his concern about rising China. However, it is still not clear whether that weakened leader after mid-term election will exercise his full power on facing assertive activity of China in the region.

The trip to Asia must have been a sort of refreshment for Obama from complicated domestic politics. But his long-run meeting with Chinese President, Xi Jinping, in Beijing was something tough for Obama, reminding him of a growing problem in Asia-Pacific region. The speech in Brisbane became a veiled message to China that U.S. would keep its commitment in the region.

Firstly, Obama emphasized U.S. policy engagement in Asia. “I’m here today to say that American leadership in the Asia Pacific will always be a fundamental focus of my foreign policy,” insisted Obama. Quoting skepticism on U.S. rebalancing policy with growing involvement in Islamic extremism or Ukraine crisis, Obama tried to maintain U.S. credibility in Asian nations, saying “meeting those other challenges in the world is not a distraction from our engagement in the region, it reinforces our engagement in this region. Our rebalance is not only about the United States doing more in Asia, it’s also about the Asia Pacific region doing more with us around the world.”

Japanese media quoted a part of Obama’s speech as warning against China, when he said that “an effective security order for Asia must be based – not on spheres of influence, or coercion, or intimidation where big nations bully the small – but on alliances of mutual security, international law and international norms.” Japanese newspapers, as some foreign media like Reuters, recognized Obama speech as a renewed commitment to Asia-Pacific.

It is too early, however, to believe in Obama’s words on U.S. commitment to Asia-Pacific. Once he gets back to his home, he will meet a bunch of problems to be tackled with. Whether U.S. will send ground troops to Syria or reinforcing sovereignty of Ukraine against aggressive Russia is ongoing problem. Urgent issue in Asia-Pacific is Trans-Pacific Partnership at most. Although Japanese policy makers insist on the commitment of U.S. to the security of Japan, the fact is that the implementation of the alliance will not be so reliable.