Insufficient Edition of Alliance

Japan and United States agreed on building “seamless” cooperative framework for security in East Asian region, where China was emerging as a possible superpower. Annoyed with Chinese ships hanging around Senkaku Islands, the Japanese government recognized significance of the agreement as firm cooperation in defending islands, while U.S. welcomed Japan to the world of global disorder. This historical change of alliance was being made without consensus of both nations in the level of citizen.

Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defense of Japan agreed with U.S. Secretaries of State and Defense on revised Guidelines for Security Cooperation of both countries on Monday. The guidelines listed actual operations in five categories: peacetime including gray-zone situation before contingency, situation with important influence on safe and security of Japan, measures against attack on Japan, collective defense for situation on the third party that affects Japan’s existence and major disaster in Japan.

Most of them looked to be measures for defending only Japan. However, U.S. would not have accepted unilateral agreement only benefitting the opposite. The true meaning of new guideline for U.S. is to let Japan involved in operations dealing with China. U.S. assumed that the Japanese would deal with threat from China by themselves with support of U.S. from background. In addition, Japan would be caught up with the quagmire in Middle East under obligation of collective defense, typically supposing a situation in need of sweeping floating mine in Hormuz Strait.

The point is whether new guidelines will be sufficient in possible events in Asia or the world. This bilateral agreement does not work for situation in South China Sea, where China has been building steppingstones with reluctance of Japan to be involved. China will easily notice U.S. intention not to be involved in small “rocks” called Senkaku, giving good reason for further advance. It is unclear whether the agreement will work for deterrence against China.

For this unreliable security framework, Japan paid a huge internal cost. By enabling collective self-defense, both governments completely broke down post-war pacifism of Japan. U.S. is only seeing short-term tendency of Japanese politics. However, right wing movement may spread with distorted nationalism in Japan, unleashed by reinterpretation, or amendment, of the Constitution of Japan.

Worst nightmare for U.S. may be Japan abandoning Western version of democracy and being closer to China for its survival. To maintain power in Asian region, U.S. needs to make sure that Japan will remain as a major democratic power sharing same values.