Defeat of Anti-base Campaign

It became the first bitter defeat for Governor of Okinawa, Takeshi Onaga, who had been protesting against the relocation plan of Futenma Marine Air Base to Henoko. The incumbent Mayor, Atsushi Sakima, who got a support from Shinzo Abe administration, won the election of Ginowan city on Sunday, where the base was located. Appeal of the opposite candidate, Kei-ichiro Shimura, did not spread enough, in spite of firm support of Onaga and the opposite parties. It is still unclear whether protest of Okinawa against national government will soon be ceased.

Sakima received 27,668 votes, while Shimura got 21,811. “This is a result of a campaign with support of Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito. There should absolutely not be a solidification of Futenma. I want the government to pave the way for returning the base as soon as possible,” told Sakima after winning the election. “Our sentiment did not reach well,” said Onaga in the campaign office for Shimura, “but there will be no change in our policy against Henoko relocation plan. All Okinawa will not be shrunk.”

U.S. Futenma Marine Air Base occupies one fourth of all land of Ginowan city. Most people desire return of the base to the people, regardless where it is going to. Sakima tried to persuade the voters to achieve closing and removal of the base without referring to Henoko, wanting to avoid isolation of Ginowan in Okinawa, where overwhelming number of people opposed Henoko relocation plan.

Abe administration supported Sakima behind the scene. Leaders of Abe administration did not show themselves in the public appearances, but visited offices in the city to ask firm support for Sakima. Sakima campaign took strategy of separating base relocation issue from the election, more focusing on economic development. Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, encouraged the strategy by indicating construction of Disney Land on the land after Futenma Base would be removed.

Onaga had been with Shimura in the election campaign. “It is only Mr. Shimura, who can settle the issue of Futenma,” reiterated Onaga in the speeches. But, certain amount of voters who made much of base issue actually voted to Sakima. Onaga’s appeal to oppose no base in Henoko did not work well. Henoko seemed to be far away for the voters in Ginowan.

It is the first defeat for the opposing group to lose in local election, since Onaga win the gubernatorial election in 2014. While it is not likely for them to stop protesting, opposition movement may lose future momentum for further campaign. It is also unlikely for the relocation plan to be immediately accelerated. Abe administration must be just feeling comfortable with avoidance of greater flare of protest.