Possible Storm in Politics

The new year has a lot of political issue to deal with. While Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stresses his priority to revitalizing Japanese economy, media reports emphasize constitutional amendment. The election for House of Councillors in early summer should be the main focus in Japanese politics. Improved diplomatic relations with Asian nations might be a following wind for Abe. It is possible that this year will make a major epoch in Japanese history.

Mainichi Shimbun ran a headline of “Emergency Clause for Amendment” for the top story on January 1^st. Assuming great disaster during election for House of Representatives, Abe administration realized necessity for extending the term of lawmakers to avoid absence. It is likely to be a political maneuver to make a big change based on a cause with small possibility. “We have to protect Japanese citizens on United States vessel in contingency” was a reason for reinterpreting Article 9 of the Constitution. Even U.S. did not suppose that kind of situation happening.

One officer in Abe administration told to Mainichi that Abe did not think it would be possible for him to amend Article 9 in his term. The emergency clause should be an alternative measure to make Japanese citizens accustomed to constitutional amendment. There is a calculation among the administration that this minor change may be accepted to other parties, including coalition partner, Komeito.

Asahi reported a possible option of simultaneous election of both Houses this summer. If Abe maintains high popularity in the first half of this year, double election will contribute high turnout, causing more winners of Liberal Democratic Party or other parties supporting constitutional amendment. “There will be dissolution of House of Representatives, if the visit of South Korea by Foreign Minister is successful,” Asahi quoted the words of Chairman of LDP General Council, Toshihiro Nikai.

It is highly likely that supporting rate for Abe will rise up, if he is successful in improving the relationship with South Korean President, Park Geun-hye, taking picture with bright smiles over signed document to settle down historical dispute on the comfort woman issue in this spring. Group 8 Summit in Japan on May will also be a driving force for his popularity.

Japan is reaching the fifth anniversary from Eastern Japan Great Earthquake on March 11^th this year. Poor politics right after the disaster precipitated Japanese people into deep disappointment, calling for heroic figure to salvage the nation. That kind of sentiment allows Abe administration to advance to bold reforms as long as economy is in preferable situation. But, the direction of the reform matters.