Great Risk in Superpower

Against expectation of most Japanese, Donald Trump won Presidential election of the United States. Bilateral relations between Japan and U.S. got into new era of uncertainty. Even how Prime Minister Shinzo Abe insists on stability of the relationship based on common value, Tokyo Stock Market was precipitated into a flutter even hours before Trump made his victory speech. Some policy of Abe administration may face serious challenge.

Asahi Shimbun raised a headline of “Risk of Introverted Superpower.” Stunned by the result of the election, the Japanese realized how U.S. people had been disappointed by lack of change in Barack Obama administration and deadly wanted true reform of American politics. For traditionally undiversified society in East Asia, an elaboration that it was effusion of anger in the white people was persuasive enough. Japan has to deal with America unprecedentedly divided.

 Nikkei Average showed steep down by ¥1,059 in Wednesday afternoon, warning extreme protectionism in Trump administration. Japanese yen was bought by investors who were looking for relatively stable currency, causing a drop of U.S. dollar from ¥105 for a dollar to ¥101. The dealers called the phenomenon “Trump shock.”

Not included as the main issues of Presidential election, Trans-Pacific Partnership was the main focus for the Japanese watchers. TV stream reminded of Trump’s antagonistic standpoint on TPP, in which he screamed “If you want to charge a 38 percent tariff on Nebraska beef, we’re going to slap a 38 percent tariff on cars.” With speculation that Trump focuses on economic deals with China, Japanese economists see the fate of TPP to be a death, as long as the pact foresees containment of Chinese economy in Asia-Pacific region. It is unclear whether Abe administration keeps on going forward to the ratification.

Abe tried to calm the people down. “Japan-U.S. alliance is unshaken alliance tied with comprehensive value. I want to deal with many issues of the world with cooperation,” told Abe to the reporters. It is hard for Japanese government, being expecting victory of Asia-leaning Hillary Clinton, to understand which way diplomacy of Trump administration is going to. Although Abe ordered his advisor, Katsuyuki Kawai, to visit Washington as soon as possible, Kawai did not know who he would have to meet with. It is likely that Trump will demand Japan greater financial support for U.S. Forces in Japan.

Following changes in U.S. policy, possibly approaching closer to China or Russia, Japan is likely to review and adjust its foreign policy toward Asian continent. But, it is all right for Abe, if the change in U.S. would be preferable for his conservative agenda.