It Ain't Easy

Disappointment covered his face. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had a meeting on Saturday with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Lima, Peru, taking opportunity of the leaders meeting for Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation. While Abe expected to pave the way to the peace treaty with settlement over dispute on Northern Territory occupied by Russia, Putin insisted on progress of economic cooperation without addressing territorial issue. Abe left words to the press: It’s not so easy.

As an introduction of the meeting, Abe welcomed Putin for the visit to Japan next month. They will have a meeting in Nagato, Yamaguchi, close to Abe’s hometown, on December 15^th, followed by discussion on economy in Tokyo next day. Putin evaluated progresses in bilateral dialogue after last meeting in September, in which they agreed on economic cooperation in eight points including energy production or technological cooperation in information technology.

While Abe showed his determination to make progress in the territorial issue, Putin was too cool to make Abe feel comfortable, refusing comment on the issue. Abe explained that they could exchange their opinion on Northern Territory at the second half of the meeting, which had been unable without individual credibility of both leaders. “Having been unable to settle for seventy years, negotiation over peace treaty is not so easy. Although we are paving the way to the conclusion, we need to climb the hills one by one,” said Abe to the reporters.

Abe told that he could realize actual way to make progress in the negotiation based on new approach after the meeting in September. Both governments had meetings over economic cooperation on officers’ level. Japan wanted to use economy as leverage for accelerating territorial negotiation. Some experts expected final solution in December and newspapers reported possibility of dissolution of House of Representatives early next year with positive impact of big achievement in Japan-Russia relations.

What had been in Putin’s mind was nothing but economy. Putin proposed mutual development in Northern Territory, including fishery or infrastructure, under Russian legislation. If Abe accept the offer as it was, it may mean recognition of Russian administration over the territory. Japanese officials know well about the intention of Russian side with no toleration on handing sovereignty over Kuril Islands.

Unfortunate enough for Abe administration, President-elect of United States Donald Trump cast shadow on the territorial issue. Russia does not need to worry about pressure from U.S. on the relation to Japan, because Trump expects direct deal with Russia regardless Japan. Russia does not have to make compromise with Japan for good control in Russia-U.S. relation. Expectation for progress next month is shrinking in Japan.