Third Longest Cabinet

The days Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has maintained his seat reached 1981 on Sunday, exceeding the period of a former administration led by his political mentor, Jun-ichiro Koizumi. Adding to the first period in 2007 and 2008, Abe administration became the thirdly longest one after World War II. The main reason of its long life is because there is no competitive political power.

In the poll operated by Asahi Shimbun last week, the Cabinet led by Abe kept relatively high supporting rate of 47%. Although Abe administration has been suffering from consecutive gaffs of Ministers or scandals related to school corporations such as Moritomo Gakuen or Kake Gakuen, which was run by definitive supporters or close friend of Abe, the rate did not decline so much.

One reason of strength of Abe administration should be broadness of support. The poll showed a fact that young agers were more supportive for Abe. The supporting rate in the age of 20s marked the highest in other ages, which was around 50%. Koizumi administration received the highest support from the age of 70s or older. It was even the same as the first administration of Abe.

It is a unique phenomenon for administration of Liberal Democratic Party, which has been enjoying firm support from old agers. After Abe’s second term started, jobless rate was actually declined, generating an expectation to stable life. Having experienced unprecedented devastation of East Japan Great Earthquake and explosion of First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, the people in Japan realize that they cannot see what is happening tomorrow. The support of Abe may come from expectation of maintaining status quo.

It was true that young generation or workers supported regime change from LDP to Democratic Party of Japan in 2009. However, their hope for DPJ turned to be a disappointment with wrong handling in recovery policy from the disaster or mishandling of decision making inside the party. As starting with low expectation, Abe administration enjoys stable support without critical decline.

The main reason of supporting Abe administration is “because there is no preferable possible administration,” which occupies one half of all. If Abe administration falls, it is likely that another opposite party will take it over. The people do not seem to like bringing political disaster by changing administration. On the other hand, supporting rate for Abe’s policy is as low as 20%. This tendency may cause apathetical attitude on the important issues including amendment of the Constitution.