TPP without U.S.

Ministers of eleven countries, which had signed for participation in an ambitious free trade pact Trans-Pacific Partnership, agreed on Sunday to move ahead witho
ut United States led by firm protectionist President Donald Trump. They are going to design the actual contents of the pact by November, hoping early activation of TPP. But, the stance of each party to the pact is not integrated so far. While they realize the need of TPP to deal with economic advance of China, TPP countries still embrace a fundamental question: What can we do without U.S. anyway?

The ministerial statement reconfirmed “strategic and economic significance of the TPP highlighting its principles and high standards as a way to promote regional economic integration, contribute positively to the economic growth prospects of its member countries, and create new opportunities for workers, families, businesses and consumers.” Urging U.S. to return to TPP, the parties focused on achieving progress in the leaders’ meeting in November, taking opportunity of the summit meeting of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation.

The statement did not refer to the possibility of TPP’s activation excluding U.S. While Japan hoped to lead the negotiation in a framework without U.S., most countries had not decided how to deal with TPP without U.S. The agreement so far was to activate TPP as early as possible and urge U.S. coming back soon. “We could reconfirm the commitment of eleven countries for early activation,” told Japanese Minister for Economic Vitalization in charge of TPP, Nobuteru Ishihara.

By recognizing the necessity of maintaining TPP, the countries could avoid drifting of the pact. However, the members fragmented with each national interest. Expecting increase of export of agricultural products, Australia and New Zealand are relatively positive on promoting TPP. But, Canada and Mexico are reluctant being against U.S., not to stimulate the economic giant in reviewing of North American Free Trade Agreement. Economically minor countries such as Vietnam or Malaysia hope to review past agreements, because they have been expecting to advance in American market.

Having decided to join the framework, leaving behind farmers’ frustration, Japanese government has no option except promoting TPP even without U.S. But, non-U.S. TPP will be too weak to build up a high standard free trade framework against economic advance of China in the region. Even if it can be successful in economic context, it will still be hard to achieve strategic goal of containing China.