Dissolution Maneuver Considered

Some news media in Japan reported that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe began to consider dissolution and general election of House of Representatives before the end of this year. They released a story that Abe had noticed that intention to the leaders of leading parties, Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito. Abe may be watching the political situation as relatively preferable for LDP to maintain power after the election. But it is unusual to create political recess in the midst of a series of nuclear or missile intimidation of North Korea.

The reports were based on the leaks by the leaders of leading parties. Abe has one option that he dissolves the House of Representatives on September 28^th, the opening day of extraordinary session of the Diet. In this case, general election of the House will be announced on October 10^th and the voting day will be October 22^nd. It is also possible to have that schedule one week later.

Another option is to delay the schedule after the visit of United States President Donald Trump to Japan scheduled between 4^th and 6^th of November. It is easy to imagine that Abe will receive criticism of leaving North Korean issue behind. If he can wait the dissolution until the Japan-US top meeting, Abe will be able to save time for careful analysis of security situation in the region.

It looks like selfish for Abe to create domestic political emptiness, while he strictly requires other major members of United Nations, mainly China or Russia, to implement recent resolution for economic sanction. It is likely that Abe will be traveling around Japan to support election campaign of LDP candidates, reducing his time to deal with diplomatic schedule in Tokyo. Wasn’t that Abe who urged international community to seriously stand against intimidation of North Korea?

The idea of dissolution is genuinely for a political maneuver of Abe. Supporting rate of Abe Cabinet declined with unilateral procedure of leading parties in passing the bill for introducing conspiracy crime and with scandal of Moritomo or Kake Gakuen. Although Abe announced that he would hope to activate new constitution in 2020, the momentum for it was diminished. He actually need more time for constitutional amendment. If he wins the election, he will have four more years to deal with it.

Following wind for Abe is weak opposite party. Some lawmakers left Democratic Party frustrated with disintegration of the party. It is good time for the leading party to win the election. The leaders of DP, Social Democratic and Liberal will have leaders meeting on Sunday to discuss cooperation in the election. But the greatest supporter for Abe administration is weakness of the opposite parties.