Keywords for Politics in Japan

According to Mainichi Shimbun, there are three keywords for politics in Japan this year. They are presidential election of Liberal Democratic Party, constitutional amendment and North Korea. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes to extend his term by three years with victory in LDP presidential election. But the environment of his administration is filled with uncertainty.

As the first official activity of this year, Abe plans to visit three Baltic countries and East Europe. Ordinary session of the Diet will be held on January 22^nd, during which constitutional amendment will be the hottest issue in the political struggle between the leading parties and the opposite. Whether Governor of Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda, will step down or not at the end of his term on April 8^th may affect future growth of Japanese economy. LDP presidential election will be held in September. Gubernatorial election in Okinawa will be held before the term of Governor of Okinawa, Takeshi Onaga, will end on December 9^th.

While he has not announced about the possibility of running, Abe hopes to extend his term for handling constitutional amendment with driving force of starting new era by Emperor’s abdication or Tokyo Olympic next year. Former Minister of Defense, Shigeru Ishiba and incumbent Minister of Internal Affairs and Communication, Seiko Noda, has expressed their willingness to run for the president as contenders against Abe. Expecting moderate succession from Abe, former Minister for Foreign Affairs, Fumio Kishida, has not decided yet.

The fastest way for constitutional amendment is to make initiative for new constitution with two-third majority in each House of the Diet in the ordinary session and have national referendum within this year. But LDP has not wrapped up their discussion over changing Article 9, which is about whether Japan should change the provision of renouncing war. The coalition partner, Komeito, is fundamentally negative on changing Article 9 and the opposite parties firmly oppose the movement of constitutional amendment in Abe administration.

It is likely that further intimidation with nuclear or missile test will be coming from North Korea this year. Abe has been stressing necessity of putting pressure on Kim Jong-un administration, leaving hopes for dialogue aside. But Kim has announced his willingness to resume dialogue with South Korea. It will be how United States will deal with the issue that determines Japan’s attitude toward Korean Peninsula. War-mongering attitude of Abe administration, which is employed for changing Article 9, may face a stalemate this year.