One Year of Instability

One year has passed from the inauguration of 45^th President of United States, whose legitimacy is still questioned with suspicious relationship with Russia. Japan has become accustomed to the words exhaled from the mouth of President Donald Trump, represented by “Make America great again” or “America first.” While their top leader hopes to establish close friendship with a historically strange POTUS, Japanese people are worried about their nation left behind.

Trump has been walking on his way to isolation from the beginning. Three days after the inauguration, he signed an executive order to withdraw from Trans-Pacific Partnership, which US had been leading to establish high-level free trade framework in Asia Pacific region where China was advancing with its own authoritarian economic principle. Japan had to make its own effort for maintaining the momentum of negotiation with other ten partners in the region, which would not have enough power to deal with China.

World economy showed its strange stability with steep uprising of stock price. Trump kept on arguing that he contributed “explosive” rally in the stock market. But it was rather brought by monetary easing policy of Federal Reserve Bureau or active trend of world trade. Threatened by Trump with boasting of higher tariff on foreign manufacturers, Japanese carmakers shifted its factories to US. But Trump’s pressure on other countries has not improved US trade deficit.

Bilateral relationship between Japan and US is focused on security matters. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe argues that Trump administration applied a security strategy he made, Free and Open Indo-Pacific Strategy, which would deal with the advance of China with multi-lateral partnership including India or Australia. Abe hopes to take advantage of US engagement to the region not only for security of Japan, but his political agenda of constitutional amendment. “Japan-US alliance has been developed to the relationship in which both leaders can talk anytime about anything,” told Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga, “and they 100% agree on North Korean issue and maintain highly substantial communication.”

The fact is that Trump administration has been making matters worse with its unilateral diplomacy. He planted instability on Middle East by declaring Jerusalem as the capital of Israel or skepticism on nuclear deal with Iran. Volatility in the region may affect oil trade on which Japan highly depends. Inconsistent attitude of US toward North Korea can isolate Japan that is maintaining hard-lining policy. Japan-US relationship became unstable much more than in the past decades.