Common Notion on Nuclear Safety

Miyazaki Branch of Fukuoka High Court dismissed an appeal of the residents around Sendai Nuclear Power Plant owned by Kyushu Electric Power Company to halt operation of nuclear reactors. The decision made a clear contrast with the sentence on Takahama Nuclear Power Plant in Fukui last month. Miyazaki recognized that Japanese society did not require zero-risk on nuclear power generation. Is it true?

Two reactors in Sendai Plant restarted its operation last year, after four-year intermission. They passed examination of Nuclear Regulation Authority in 2014, based on new security regulation with lessons from devastative explosion in First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. It was the first resumption among all nuclear reactors in Japan after the unprecedented severe accident in Fukushima.

Presiding Judge of Miyazaki Branch, Tomoichiro Nishikawa, approved that the assessment of NRA for two reactors in Sendai Plant fulfilling safety requirement was appropriate. Although the risk of earthquake that exceeds anti-quake architecture would not be eliminated to zero, Nishikawa realized that NRA regulation included high standard with rationality. He concluded that requirement for absolute safety was not a common notion in Japanese society.

It was controversial that the decision introduced an idea of “common notion” in evaluation of safety standard of nuclear power plant. Some require perfect safety to nuclear power generation, because a nuclear accident causes unbearable damage on people’s life, the notion which every Japanese embraced five years ago. Others may demand cheap electricity, regardless the risk of nuclear disaster. There is no apparent common notion on it.

Judicial Branch of Japanese government proves by itself absent of common notion on nuclear safety. Otsu Regional Court concluded on Takahama Plant last month that passing new regulation would not bring social stability and ordered Kansai Electric Power Company stopping the reactors. It is obvious that Miyazaki and Otsu do not have a common notion on nuclear regulation.

Miyazaki Court also dismissed appeal for evacuation plan for the residents around Sendai Plant. “Although there are some inefficiencies on effectiveness of gradual evacuation or securing evacuation route, it does not mean absence of evacuation plan,” sentenced Nishikawa. Does having any evacuation plan guarantee safety for the people? Fear for possible eruption in volcanoes around was ignored. Decision in Miyazaki could not said as rooted on the idea of ordinary people.

TPP Discussion Begins

Discussion over Trans-Pacific Partnership, a 12 nations free trade framework led by United States and Japan, started in House of Representatives on Tuesday. The opposite parties have been frustrated with secrecy held by Japanese government and require Shinzo Abe administration to reveal how the negotiation was going on. The bureaucrats protested to the demand with firm attitude of concealing the process of negotiation, which would closely affect people’s life.

Abe administration submitted a bill for TPP approval and eleven related bills for revising existing laws, which included Copyrights Law, Patent Law or Anti-trust Law. “TPP produces a market with 800 million of population and generate 40% of world economy. It will be a basis for Japan to overcome demographic decline and mid- or long-term growth,” told Abe in the plenary meeting of the House. He insisted that TPP would contribute to national interest of Japan.

The opposite parties do not think so. Even though they do not oppose TPP itself, Democratic Party accuses Abe administration that the substance of the agreement violates a resolution in the Diet, which demanded TPP agreement not to damage domestic farmers for rice, wheat, beef, pork, dairy products or sugar. “We will prove how Abe administration has damaged national interest and threatened people’s life,” said Chairwoman of Policy Council of DP, Shiori Yamao.

Liberal Democratic Party was firmly opposing TPP in the election campaign of House of Representatives in 2012. The opposite parties also criticize LDP of its change of policy. Abe defends himself that he reconfirmed United States President Barack Obama about TPP agreement not meaning total removal of tariffs. However, TPP abolishes tariffs on some important products the Diet resolution listed.

Secret process of the negotiation is also a target of the opposites. With request from DP, LDP submitted a document on minister-level meeting between Japan and U.S., which records were entirely painted black except the title. The document made no sense, reminding of despotic regime. Disclosure is a basis for thorough review on foreign policy crucial for the people.

TPP should be understood as a free trade framework countering economic advance of China. But, it is questioned that Abe administration has been trying to promote the negotiation in a way of deceiving Japanese public. To prove fairness of the agreement, Abe has to open information about the negotiation and present accurate calculation on the impact of TPP on Japanese farmers.

Skepticism on Kuroda Easing

The different dimensioned monetary easing led by Bank of Japan Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, marked the third anniversary on Monday. Although the Kuroda kept on launching surprising monetary policies, his goal of 2% inflation target has not been achieved. While a bunch of money was poured into the market, wages of workers and spending of consumers has not raised yet. There grows an argument that monetary easing policy has to be revised.

Among three arrows of Abenomics, bold monetary easing was only a brand-new strategy, while other two, fiscal mobilization and growth policy, could be categorized as traditional. At the beginning of Kuroda easing, there was an opinion that the policy had certain effects as seen in growing income of exporting manufacturers or increasing wage.

In late 2012 or early 2013, economy in United States was in recovering phase and European monetary crisis was getting settled. High value of U.S. dollar or European euro brought lower rate of Japanese yen and high average of stock price in Tokyo. However, trickle down theory did not work in Japan. Suffering from consumption tax hike in April 2014, real income of consumers declined.

Deeply rooted in expectations, Kuroda’s monetary easing policy has a highly psychological aspect. Asahi Shimbun quoted Kuroda’s words: “There is a saying in the tale of Peter Pan that ‘it cannot fly forever when it doubt flying.’ Positive attitude and convincing are important.” The fact is commodity price has not seen any growth with negative elements like the price down of crude oil. Targeted schedule for achieving 2% inflation was delayed from two years later than April 2013 to the first half of FY 2017. Nevertheless, BoJ cannot change its policy, being afraid of negative economic mind.

Underground magma is swelling. BoJ has been purchasing a huge amount of governmental bonds. As its consequence, amount of BoJ’s asset has grown as much as 80 percent, or ¥410 trillion, of Japanese gross domestic products. Compared to the level in U.S. Federal Reserve with 25% against GDP or in European Central Bank with 20%, BoJ possesses significant amount. Skepticism on monetary policy can lead to steep decline of price of Japanese governmental bonds.

The skepticism has already spread to the world. “Abenomics is gravitated to monetary policy too much,” reportedly told Paul Krugman in the meeting for evaluation of international economy. But, as long as Prime Minister Shinzo Abe connects economic policy with other political agenda including constitutional amendment, monetary easing may not be changed.

Considering Tax Hike Delay

In the midst of slowdown of Japanese economy, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe reportedly considers postponing introduction of higher rate of consumption tax planned in April 2017. Abe once promised to raise the rate to 10% in the House of Representatives election campaign 2014. However, he and his staffs have fundamental uneasiness that higher tax rate may damage Abenomics in a crucial way.

Sankei Shimbun reported that Abe had already decided to delay consumption tax hike and would announce it in May. Abe convened meetings with world prominent economists to hear opinion on Japanese economic policy last month. In those meetings, some economists, including Professor of Columbia University, Joseph Stiglitz, or Professor of City University of New York, Paul Krugman, were negative on raising tax rate or recommended postponing. The reports about Abe’s decision appeared after those meetings.

Lawmakers of Liberal Democratic Party are mostly delighted with possibility of lightened burden for the election. It is broadly recognized that higher consumption tax rate will further cool Japanese economy down and leading party is responsible for the handling of economic policy. The delay of the tax hike will be a message of determination to improve economy.

The decision will, however, give the opposite parties a good chance of criticizing Abe administration. Abe has already postponed consumption tax hike once planned in October 2015. In this decision, he publicly promised that he would never change new schedule set in April 2017. To hear opinion from the nation, Abe used power of dissolving House of Representatives and achieved a victory in the election.

The opposite parties require resignation of Abe, accusing the broken promise that he would never delay the timing of tax hike again. “If he postpone the consumption tax hike again, it will apparently be violation of campaign promise. Do not dissolve House of Representatives, but step down as Prime Minister,” told President of Democratic Party, Katsuya Okada. Japan Communist Party and others appeal in the same line.

Even the leaders of leading parties started being negative on tax hike delay. Abe has been saying that without crucial situation in economy paralleled with Lehman Shock or East Japan Great Earthquake, tax hike would be exercised as scheduled. “Economy is not as urgent as Lehman Shock so far,” told Vice-President of LDP, Masahiko Komura. Komeito is also reluctant to the postponing, because it may lead to simultaneous election that the party does not like. Stakes are still so high.

Additional Itinerary in Hiroshima

Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan, Fumio Kishida, announced on Saturday that Foreign Ministers of Group Seven countries would visit Hiroshima Peace Memorial Park taking opportunity of G7 Foreign Ministers Meeting later this month. It will be the first time for United States Secretary of State and Foreign Ministers of Britain and France to visit the park. Japan hopes those nations to correctly understand the consequence of nuclear war, even though seven decades have passed.

Japanese government has been urging G7 countries to accept the schedule for Foreign Ministers to visit memorial facility in Hiroshima, soon after the city was picked as the place for the foreign ministers meeting last year. The member countries agreed on Japan’s proposal. The ministers will see the exhibition of Peace Memorial Museum, which includes miniature of Hiroshima City when the atomic bomb exploded in the sky or nail, hair or other remains of the civilian victims.

The ministers will also give memorial service in front of Atomic Bomb Memorial Monument. “It is extremely important for promoting the world without nuclear weapon that the world leaders visit suffered place and know the reality of devastation by atomic bomb,” told Kishida in Hiroshima. He indicated that G7 member countries did not accept the offer of meeting with suffered people called hibakusha.

Although Japan has been requiring U.S. President to visit Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the request has been turned down with negative opinion of U.S. public. In the school of U.S., dropping atomic bomb has been taught as a necessary measure to finish the war and avoid further damages and victims. It is still unclear that President Obama will visit Hiroshima or Nagasaki at the time of G7 Summit meeting in Tokyo late May.

While Obama has been eager to make the world without nuclear weapon, its effort was slow and weak. In the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington, D.C., the world leaders shared perception on nuclear crisis brought by terrorists. Participants of the meeting watched a short video of possible fall of radioactive materials from drone controlled by terrorists. Threat is getting closer to the citizens.

United States appealed that over 3.8 tons of highly enriched uranium and plutonium was removed from 30 countries and concentrated to U.S. or Russia during six years of Nuclear Security Summit. However, having nuclear weapon is still regarded as a status of powerful country as North Korea perceives. It is necessary for world leaders to realize that nuclear weapon does not produce any winner, but loser at all.

Trilaterally Good, Bilaterally Not

President of the United States, Barack Obama, hosted a trilateral meeting with Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, and President of Republic of Korea, Park Geun-hye, in Washington, D.C. on Thursday. While three leaders could share common idea on security policy in Northeast Asia, each bilateral meeting revealed fundamental discrepancies on their relationships. The meeting was quite businesslike and sober.

Obama introduced Abe and Park as “two of our closest ally in Asia, two of my closest friends and collaborators on the international stage.” It must be so. United States deeply involved in the reconstruction from wartime devastation in each country. “We share common values and a common vision for the future of the Asia Pacific – a vision that is rooted in our strong commitment to a rules-based order, one in which all countries, regardless of size, act according to shared norms and shared principles,” said Obama in the press conference.

The trilateral summit meeting actually reached an agreement on countermeasure against nuclear and missile development of North Korea. “We agreed during this meeting that trilateral security cooperation is essential to maintaining peace and stability in Northeast Asia, deterring the North Korean nuclear threat and the potential of nuclear proliferation as a consequence of North Korean activities,” announced Obama. The leaders directed their teams to elaborate additional steps for denuclearized Korean Peninsula.

Twenty minutes after the end of trilateral summit, Abe and Park faced each other for their bilateral meeting. According to the Japanese official, Abe expressed his determination to implement the agreement they had made last December. Nevertheless, they did not get into the details about the agreement on donating ¥1 billion for a foundation in South Korea that would support comfort women, or about removing statue of comfort woman in front of Japanese Embassy in Seoul.

In the bilateral meeting with Abe, Obama was apparently worried about the future of Futenma relocation plan. Also according to the Japanese official, Obama asked Abe how long the construction of alternative facility in Henoko would delay and in what way U.S. Force would be able to use current Futenma Marine Airbase. “We have not changed the attitude that Henoko relocation plan is the best and the only solution. We decided it with an idea of ‘More haste, less speed,” explained Abe.

It is unclear whether those three leaders discussed the future of United States. One of the candidates of Presidential election this fall questioned necessity of U.S. Force stationing in Japan and South Korea and required more host nation support from the two countries. Skepticism is actually cast on U.S., too.

Frozen Wall Approved

Nuclear Regulation Authority approved the plan of Tokyo Electric Power Company to operate “frozen wall” in underground of broken First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Although the wall is expected to block underground water stream flowing into the site, causing radioactively polluted water flow out to the sea, its effectiveness is still doubted. Without any success guaranteed, TEPCO embarked on the construction of unprecedented artificial tundra.

Frozen wall plan is to surround 1F site in underground with frozen bars. On the line around four broken nuclear reactors with the length of 1500 meters, 1568 bars with 30 meter-length will be implanted every meter. Those bars are planned to be frozen to -30 degree Celsius with electric power and expected to freeze the soil around.

Against the original plan to freeze all bars as soon as possible, NRA indicated the risk of leaking highly radioactive water from the building on the ground, caused by decline of water level underground. TEPCO took plan B that would gradually freeze the bars from seaside to hillside. It started freezing on the seaside on Thursday and will finish all bars frozen a month and a half later. TEPCO expects that they will see some effect two months later.

No one actually knows whether the plan works. Even the Chairman of NRA, Shun-ichi Tanaka, questioned the plan. “We would be better not to think that we can control nature,” told Tanaka in his press conference on Wednesday. It is not a fundamental solution to reduce the amount of water flowing into the site. The goal is to dry the buildings up. NPA required TEPCO to record data about water flow. However, it does not make sense that NRA approved the plan of TEPCO, leaving those questions behind.

Uncontrollable water flow underground has been the biggest obstacle against the process of dismantlement of the facility. In addition to frozen wall plan, TEPCO has been involved in “sub-drain plan,” which pumps up the polluted water, purifies it with new facility and pours into the sea. But, radioactive tritium will not be removed in the purification process. Pollution of seawater is still the problem of the plan.

Hundreds of tons of water is streaming underground of 1F site everyday. The water has been expected to be diluted in Pacific Ocean. Frozen wall facility should not be the final solution as long as it would not dry the broken reactors up by itself. The reactors must be cooled down with water anyway. So, it can be said that the broken nuclear power plant is highly vulnerable, floating on the water stream of the nature.