Who Pays for It?

The Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, on Friday launched a “rocket” loading the Abenomics policies, a package of urgent economic measures. It contains a huge amount of old-style construction projects, which include building roads and bridges, reinforcing old buildings to withstand disasters, or supporting local governments for their maintenance of infrastructures. The government pours ¥10.2 trillion, or $115 billion, into those projects which are not assured to work for economic recovery. Since most spending for them will be compensated by newly issued national bonds, which may cause worsening national finance, there comes a big question in everyone’s mind: Who pays for it? But nobody in the administration answers.

Abe has been emphasizing a rocket start of his new administration, trying to make differences from former DPJ government. The package decided by his cabinet on Friday marked a change of policy direction from welfare to construction industries. Even though policy makers insist on their innovative way of spending, that money-disseminative policy would be returning to old LDP politics, because the party has been heavily dependent on support from construction industries in every part of Japan.

Former DPJ administration set a limit on new delivery of annual national bonds, which was ¥44 trillion. Abe’s urgent economic measures require national bonds worth of ¥5.2 trillion, and total amount for FY 2012 is rising to ¥50 trillion. “The measures will raise our real gross domestic project by 2% and create 600 thousand new jobs,” he appealed in press conference on Friday. But if it fails in making growth and results in accumulating more national debts, Japan will follow the same course as the Greeks experienced.

Abe insists that the problem of national debt will be addressed by the Economic and Financial Consultation Conference before the end of June. He also promised that he would pursue getting the primary balance black. But the actual time schedule of that is unclear. One thing apparent here is he wants to discontinue DPJ policy, which has been to avoid vesting huge burden on the shoulders of our future generation.

Possible reason why he is reluctant to take close look at the negative elements of his measures is not to discourage current surge of stock market. The Nikkei average has jumped up from around ¥9,000 of last November to nearly ¥11,000 now. This active market became an engine for his administration, and he observes a victory in coming election of the House of Councillors on July. So, it is his requirement to make voters unaware of the negative aspect of his policy handling. What’s waiting for us is heavy debt to compensate long after this administration ends.

For Freedom of Press

Japanese media organizations are unusually caring about freedom of press in China. Some newspapers in Japan started criticizing the Chinese government of the censorship and coercion to an influential newspaper, Southern Weekly. Supporting the growing tendency for requiring freedom of press in China, Japan media expect to a change of oppressive attitude of Chinese government against its citizens. However, they should rather be aware of the necessity for protecting their own freedom.

At least two newspapers, Tokyo and Asahi, picked the news from China up in the editorial. They criticized Chinese government and appealed the importance of freedom of speech and press for democracy.

Other papers also vigorously reported the deal between the government of China and Southern Weekly, which had been to carry a government-made editorial of warning Chinese newspapers not to rebel against the government, instead of the one appealing the freedom of speech. Mainichi analyzed that the oppression had a background of power struggle between the conservatives and reformists inside Xi Jinping administration. To deter the uprising of reformists, it argued, the conservatives needed to strictly contain anti-government opinions in newspapers.

In a big country like China, the government needs to keep grips on the press to maintain governance to the people. When it loses control, a huge amount of people may stand against the government and defeat the communist regime. The oppression against the press, sometimes it is exercised on foreign press, was too strict to be ignored by the world. The criticism of Japanese media can be reasonable.

But wait a moment. Is there a sufficient freedom of press in Japan? Although the government of Japan would not coerce a newspaper to carry an editorial article in favor of the government, political leaders and bureaucrats always try to control newspapers and TV stations. Their efforts are ordinarily made by building close and closed relationships with leaders of media.

The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with the president of Yomiuri over a dinner. He also met with the president of Sankei next evening. Both newspapers are recognized as conservative and being close to Abe in policies such as the constitution amendment. For those reasons or not, both papers hit consecutive scoops in Abe’s choices of ministers in his cabinet last month. It is the concern that maintaining close relationship with top political leaders may let the newspapers down to the publishers of official information. Before criticizing governmental intervention on freedom of press in a neighbor country, media in Japan need to remember their responsibility of reporting what ordinary people would not know unless sincere journalism exists.

Friends in Need

Japanese are really appreciated to the helpings of US forces and citizens in the hard time right after the Great Northeastern Earthquake in 2011. As showed in a proverb “A friend in need is a friend indeed,” both government of Japan and US named the operation “Tomodachi,” the word which meant “friends” in Japanese. To show courtesy, the Japanese often put “o” at the head of a word. So what does “Otomodachi” mean? It’s the ministers of Abe administration who has close relationship with their boss. For Abe, they really are friends in need.

The first man Abe relied on was the Minister of Finance, Taro Aso. Both men have common factors. They are former Prime Ministers, grand sons of former PM, and considered to be born with silver spoons in their mouths. Although their grandfathers, Nobusuke Kishi and Shigeru Yoshida, did not necessarily maintained their good relationship, Abe and Aso are close friends, affiliated to conservative groups in LDP. The Minister of State for the Economic and Fiscal Policy, Akira Amari, is a descendant of a minister in the Old War Age and a son of a LDP legislator. Those three men are said to be celebrities and representatives of elite class of Japanese society.

The Minister of Education, Hakubun Shimomura, the Minister for Disaster Management, Takumi Nemoto, the Minister of the Environment, Nobuteru Ishihara, and the Minister of Economics, Trade and Industry, Toshimitsu Motegi, are close and old friends in LDP community. Abe made a great effort with Shimomura in supporting Jun-ichiro Koizumi to be PM. Nemoto and Ishihara were with Abe as young legislators of specialists on financial crisis in late 1990s. Abe and Motegi are old friends who worked as liaisons among groups in LDP.

The Minister of Internal Affairs, Yoshitaka Shindo, and the Chairman of the National Public Safety Commission, Keiji Furuya, and the Minister of State for Regulatory Reform, Tomomi Inada, are included in hawkish legislators as well as Abe. The Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, and the Minister of State for Okinawa and Northern Territory Affairs, Ichita Yamamoto, are loyal followers of Abe.

For Abe, those otomodachis are rescuers for him. After the collapse of the first administration, Abe was struggling with his both physical and mental weakness. Before he was confident in his recovery, he decided to run for the president race in LDP and won. The readiness of Abe for PM should not be enough so far. That’s why he needed help form friends.

The closest friend for him over all, however, is former Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yasuhisa Shiozaki, who now is deputy chairman of Policy Research Council. Abe refrained from inviting him in his cabinet to avoid criticisms from opposites, because Shiozaki was the symbol of otomodachi in the first administration. If Abe is successful in regaining political power, he will use Shiozaki for one of the important posts in his administration.

Leaning on Military Solution

Japan seems to have decided that it is going to deal with the aggressions of China around the disputed Senkaku Islands as military matter. Abe administration projects to increase defense budget for the first time in these eleven years. Officials explain its purpose as “responding our severe security environment,” indicating their frustration on Senkaku issue. What are they ultimately doing with the budget? That is not so clear.

During the term of DPJ administration, the government kept on watching and guarding the activities of Chinese official ships, mainly affiliated with coast guard. The role sharing between Japan coast guard and the self-defense force was not clear. New ruling party, LDP, is trying it to be clear and putting more gravity on military side.

What made them excited was China’s violation of air space occurred December 13, 2012. As long as China’s action is limited in sea area, Japan can deal with it by police and coast guard. But when it is aircrafts, no power except defense force can respond to them. Although the fighters of Japan Air Self-defense Force scrambled against it, the early warning system could not find the invaders before entering Japan’s territory. It shocked LDP hawkish lawmakers. After the incident, JASDF keeps on flying P3C, marine surveillance aircraft, to patrol Senkaku area.

As traditions, LDP guys firstly try to compensate military shorthand with money. The budget review is along with this attitude. Fixing early warning aircrafts, introducing new aircrafts including F-35 and MV-22 Osprey, and research and development of new type of radar technology are on the table. Responding North Korea’s development of missile capability, budget for ballistic missile defense also will be increased.

As a mid-term project, LDP considers reviewing the National Defense Program Guidelines and the Mid-term Defense Program, made by former administration. Decreasing tendency of the number of troops will be reviewed and seeking of dynamic defensive capability is going back to the basic (static) defense posture. Those reviews reflect LDP’s appeal to the public of the difference from DPJ. But 

nobody shows the end state of that military-oriented policy.

Current tendency of discussions inside Japan is looking inward and selfish. If Japan is dealing with China issues by military power, it only draws military response from the counterpart, which China may prefer. But the bitter experience of LDP lawmakers as the opposition for three and a half years made them impatient about the “weakness” against the growing neighbor.

In the discussion of military capability, hawkish aspect of the party is looming. There is an argument that Japan need to review the rule of engagement to deal with Senkaku issue. This opinion is based on the notion that Japan may not be able to avoid military conflict with China in the future. Request of consideration on the possession of nuclear weapons may be gaining power, if the Chinese aggression continues. Biggest concern is that the leaders cannot contain those frustrations from the bottom of their political basis.

Why Tokyo?

The officials of Tokyo metropolitan government call this year “showdown.” Targeted date is September 7^th. What happens then? The International Olympic Committee decides the city in which Olympic games will be held in 2020. Tokyo is one of three candidates including Istanbul, Turkey, and Madrid, Spain. The response of most people in Japan is “Hey, Tokyo. What are you exciting for?”

The government of Tokyo sent a delegation to the headquarters of IOC in Lausanne, Switzerland to submit final plan of Tokyo Olympic Games by the deadline of January 7^th. The plan emphasizes the infrastructure of Tokyo, which made all the games be able to take place within the radius of eight kilometers. High security is also one of the appealing points.

But the leaders are suspected to be innocent about the situation of both international and domestic situation surrounding Tokyo’s candidacy. “Our advantage is that we have made a bid for the last contest for 2016. This time, I have confidence of winning,” said the governor of Tokyo, Naoki Inose. If the experience of candidacy matters, however, other candidates have greater advantage. Istanbul ran for four times, 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012, and Madrid twice, 2012 and 2016.

He also appeals the meaning of Tokyo Olympic Games to be making a showcase of reconstruction of the Great Northeastern Earthquake. The government of Tokyo has been said that it had collected ¥400 billion from private sectors for the invitation. A common feeling of the Japanese is that Tokyo should directly distribute that money to the people suffered from disaster, rather than taking advantage of the reconstruction as justification of the invitation.

The supporting rate of the Japanese for Tokyo Olympic Games 2020 remains at the level of 47%, making clear contrast with Istanbul with 73% and Madrid 78%, according to polls. So, whose interest is it?

Former governor, Shintaro Ishihara, had been insisting it. After collecting a huge amount of money, he needed to fulfill his commitment. As a China hater, Ishihara might have been feeling frustrated with Beijing Olympic Games 2008 was held during his gubernatorial terms. The successor of him, Inose, is just paying for political debt Ishihara made.

Most residents of Tokyo are interested in welfare policy of the metropolitan government. The ratio of highly aged residents is growing up next few decades. Although Inose made historical victory in the gubernatorial election last month, voters wanted him to upgrade more the welfare service than inviting the Olympics. Who will benefitted with Tokyo Olympic Games must be few leaders of Tokyo Government and businessmen around them.

Conservative Big Government

Big government or small government? It is a permanent argument of democracy. In developed country, conservatives prefer small government and liberals big. Although it also is said about Japan, conservatives now need to choose big government. Can Japan still be said as one of the developed countries in the world?

Regarded as one of the most conservative Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe announced that he would continue the talk with DPJ and New Komeito through the National Conference on Social Security Reform. The conference was set by former DPJ administration for the discussion over how to adjust the social security system for the future of extremely aged society. As a new Prime Minister, Abe decided to maintain the trilateral structure of the talking, even after DPJ is opposition party.

Even though Abe is affiliated to a conservative group, to exercise fiscal conservative policy is another thing. A former PM, Junichiro Koizumi, introduced policies of radical deregulation. As a result of that neo-liberal economy, most people recognized that low-income workers lost their status of permanent employee and had to apply for temporary jobs, and that social rift between rich and poor had become wider. That frustration against the government caused historical defeat of LDP in the general election in 2009.

Political surge of new parties, such as Japan Restoration Party, is mainly based on that frustration against older parties. Most supporters for JRP live in Osaka area, where the ratio of residents requiring public income assistance is the highest among forty-seven prefectural districts in Japan. People who want big government actually consist of political majority, and their discontents lead them to suppoert more radical change of current situation.

Learning from the history of last ten years, Abe hesitates to include new-liberalism in his administration’s agenda. On the other hand, he doesn’t want to follow DPJ’s policies which lean heavily on welfare. Therefore he appeals the necessity of growth- oriented policies and targeted inflation directed by both Bank of Japan and Ministry of Finance, while keeping governmental assistance as current level. That ambiguous attitude on the handling of economy supposedly stems from his unpreparedness as the leader. Some colleagues of him indicate that he did not expect to win the election of LDP leader last September.

Providing people with jobs, higher wage, social security and public projects, mixed with printing bills and accumulation of national debt, will not said to be a sustainable policy, and may cause losing credibility on Japanese economy. Current consecutive rallies in stock market, which obviously has been an excessive expectation to Abe administration, may be resulted in much ado about nothing.

Good Gain in Kickoff Return

Receiving a kickoff ball from former DPJ administration, the Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe marked a pretty good return in diplomacy. By sending a special envoy to South Korea, Abe got a positive response from next President, Park Geun-Hye, of her willingness to visit Japan. Making clear contrast with former DPJ administration, Abe appeals his ability to build stable relationship with crucially important countries.

The reason why Abe sent the first envoy of his new administration to South Korea was because he might regard the country as the closest neighbor. Catching the timing of changing leaders in both countries, Abe tried to build a new relationship without being affected by mishandlings of former administrations.

To have sent a skilled politician, Fukushiro Nukaga, a former Defense Minister, was a successful choice to show LDP’s ability, because former DPJ administration had little progress by sending envoys to neighbor countries. He is also planning to send special envoys to China and Russia. China is a country, with which Japan has a lot of problems to fix. From the time of businessman in a steel company, which products included steel pipe to send petroleum, Abe has been interested in improving the relationship with Russia. He is sending other skilled politicians as special envoys.

Reiterating the importance of Japan-US alliance, PM Abe chose the United States as the first country to visit after his inauguration. Reflecting the failure in his first administration on making close relationship with US President, George. W. Bush, Abe is determined to show credibility to Barack Obama as an allied leader. If he insists on his longtime standpoint on denying responsibility of the government of Japan on comfort woman, however, the relationship with Obama will not be as preferable as what he wants to build.

Basic element that Abe’s diplomacy looks successful is contrast with the failure of DPJ administration. The reason why former PM, Yukio Hatoyama, decided to move Futenma Air Base out of Okinawa was based on wrong assessment about US intention on the issue, which was brought by an unofficial envoy to US just before DPJ administration started. Former PMs, Naoto Kan and Yoshihiko Noda, were diplomatic novices. Kan could not face eye-to-eye manner to Hu Jintao at Yokohama on October, 2010, just after the accident of collision of ships from both countries around Senkaku Islands. Noda misunderstood Hu’s seriousness about China’s domestic situation over the Senkaku issue and escalated the tension between Japan and China by buying Senkaku Islands.

Compared to those rough handlings of diplomacy by DPJ administration, Abe looks like experienced leader of Japan. But his viewpoint on history of wartime Japan and conservative policies are not popular in Asian countries. He will suffer from a dilemma of worsening foreign relationships, when he tries to take strong and hawkish position in domestic politics.