Leaning on Military Solution

Japan seems to have decided that it is going to deal with the aggressions of China around the disputed Senkaku Islands as military matter. Abe administration projects to increase defense budget for the first time in these eleven years. Officials explain its purpose as “responding our severe security environment,” indicating their frustration on Senkaku issue. What are they ultimately doing with the budget? That is not so clear.

During the term of DPJ administration, the government kept on watching and guarding the activities of Chinese official ships, mainly affiliated with coast guard. The role sharing between Japan coast guard and the self-defense force was not clear. New ruling party, LDP, is trying it to be clear and putting more gravity on military side.

What made them excited was China’s violation of air space occurred December 13, 2012. As long as China’s action is limited in sea area, Japan can deal with it by police and coast guard. But when it is aircrafts, no power except defense force can respond to them. Although the fighters of Japan Air Self-defense Force scrambled against it, the early warning system could not find the invaders before entering Japan’s territory. It shocked LDP hawkish lawmakers. After the incident, JASDF keeps on flying P3C, marine surveillance aircraft, to patrol Senkaku area.

As traditions, LDP guys firstly try to compensate military shorthand with money. The budget review is along with this attitude. Fixing early warning aircrafts, introducing new aircrafts including F-35 and MV-22 Osprey, and research and development of new type of radar technology are on the table. Responding North Korea’s development of missile capability, budget for ballistic missile defense also will be increased.

As a mid-term project, LDP considers reviewing the National Defense Program Guidelines and the Mid-term Defense Program, made by former administration. Decreasing tendency of the number of troops will be reviewed and seeking of dynamic defensive capability is going back to the basic (static) defense posture. Those reviews reflect LDP’s appeal to the public of the difference from DPJ. But 

nobody shows the end state of that military-oriented policy.

Current tendency of discussions inside Japan is looking inward and selfish. If Japan is dealing with China issues by military power, it only draws military response from the counterpart, which China may prefer. But the bitter experience of LDP lawmakers as the opposition for three and a half years made them impatient about the “weakness” against the growing neighbor.

In the discussion of military capability, hawkish aspect of the party is looming. There is an argument that Japan need to review the rule of engagement to deal with Senkaku issue. This opinion is based on the notion that Japan may not be able to avoid military conflict with China in the future. Request of consideration on the possession of nuclear weapons may be gaining power, if the Chinese aggression continues. Biggest concern is that the leaders cannot contain those frustrations from the bottom of their political basis.