Preparing for Threats form the Peninsula

Adding to concerns of Chinese aggression in the East China Sea and Russian fighter’s invasion of Japanese territory around northern Hokkaido islands, the government of Japan holds headache on the issue of Korean Peninsula. The leader of North Korea announced his intention of nuclear test. Turning all neighbors to enemy, the leaders of Japan more and more rely on a friend on the opposite side of the Pacific.

While Japan is struggling in the quagmire of argument on nuclear energy after the accident of the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant, North Korea is steadily preparing nuclear test for the third time. This time the test may have certain significance. According to the statement of a official of South Korean military, it was possible for North Korea to operate two kinds of experiment; one is plutonium type as same as former two tests, and another is highly enriched uranium. A physicist in Los Alamos indicated that North Korea might have another test of explosion of hydrogen bomb, which would produce nuclear fusion, taking advantage of other plutonium and uranium experiments.

The government of Japan is watching what is going on around nuclear test sites in North Korea, using information provided from satellite of United States. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fumio Kishida, consulted with US Secretary of State, John Kerry, and reconfirmed that North Korea needs to understand the consequence of unilateral intimidation of nuclear test. Japanese government also prepares unilateral sanction against North’s nuclear tests, that includes expanding the list of rejected persons of reentry. It is also planning to collect radioactive materials in the air with the aircraft of Air Self-defense Force.

There is no sign from North Korea of rethinking of the tests. Japanese government assumes that the most likely date of the test is next Monday, just because last two nuclear tests were on Monday. The fact shows crucial lack of information. The additional sanction by the United Nations would be less effective unless China’s serious cooperation can expect.

Henry Kissinger once warned Chinese leader that increasing nuclear weapons in East Asia might cause Japan’s nuclear possession. Current hawkish administration in Japan welcomes discussions not only about Japan’s militarization, but nuclearization. Who can say that there would never be an argument in Japan to have necessary nuclear weapons and technology to protect itself from obvious threat from the peninsula, while peaceful nuclear power has to be shut down because it is too dangerous for the nations.

Ozawa-like Dodging

Ichiro Ozawa is a distinguished politician in Japan, who survives by vesting responsibility of money scandal on his secretaries. Regardless his responsibility for overseeing his secretaries, Ozawa always dodges, saying “I don’t know about it. It was done by my secretaries.” The response to the consecutive incidents of Chinese navy vessels to have locked fire control radar on Japanese ships of the Maritime Self-defense Force was something like “Ozawa method.” As Ozawa has been requested a clear explanation, China has to say something more.

“I don’t know about the details of that. You should ask an appropriate section,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, Hua Chunying, in a press conference on Wednesday. She didn’t rebut Japanese objection on the incident. It was obviously different attitude of Chinese government, which has been explaining the activity of China around Senkaku Islands as “ordinary operation.” The response of Chinese government this time was actually equivocal.

The action China made can internationally be condemned. The Rule of Engagement Handbook drafted by officers in UK, Canada, Australia and US in 2009 defines illuminating with fire control radar as “proactive measures that may assist in ascertaining hostile intent.” Communicating or displaying a warning shot is not prohibited when the illumination occurred. A former official of the US Department of States told the locking on would be a cause of attack in the ROE of US military.

It is unlikely that the Chinese government, led by the General secretary of the Communist Party, totally uniformed about the proactive measures of their nave vessels. If the Chinese don’t understand the rule of engagement, its vessels should not go into international waters. The Japanese government revealed that the illumination of fire control radar was frequently done by Chinese vessels before Abe administration started last December. Nobody would believe that Chinese navy done that with its unilateral decision.

If the government of China explains these incidents as excessive and uncontrollably independent military action, there would be punishment on the leaders of the navy. If it acknowledges its responsibility, it should announce how to avoid the same kind of action. Building a hotline with Japan is one of the options China can make.

There comes an argument of reviewing the standard of use of weapons in Japan. It is about easing the restriction of weapons use limited to some cases as self-defense. Some hawkish lawmakers even request making rule of engagement, while the Constitution of Japan does not allow the nation the right of engagement. There are some people in Japan, who welcome China’s intimidations.

Sprat to Catch Mackerel

It is too optimistic to recognize the consecutive escalation as simple intimidation to Japan. The Minister of Defense, Itsunori Onodera, revealed that a Chinese navy vessel locked radar on Japanese ship of the Maritime Self-defense Force on the East China Sea last month. The radar was normally used for aiming a target for missile attack. The officials of the government of Japan regard that Chinese activity as close to use of force. We need to analyze what exists behind the escalation strategy.

According to the press briefing of Onodera, A Chinese navy vessel, Jianwei II class frigate, radiated fire control radar on a Japanese Maritime Self-defense Force destroyer, Yudachi, through two-mile distance on January 30^th. Newspapers reported the tension of clues inside the destroyer when the ship censored the radar. Onodera also announced another incident in which a Chinese vessel aimed radar on a flying helicopter of Japanese Self-defense Force on January 19^th.

The experts in Japan perceive those actions as possible expressions of adversary. The officials of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs wonder whether the Chinese government ordered those activities and understood what it meant. Onodera stated that the incident had been extremely unusual and might have invited very dangerous situation. Some officials of the government told the situation between Japan and China entered into a new stage.

The escalation of China has been accelerated. Before mid-December last year, when LDP won the general election determining Shinzo Abe to be the Prime Minister, the ships of China invading Japan’s territory around Senkaku were with coast guards. It was after Abe administration started when Chinese aircrafts and military ships are often going around there. The radar pointing seems to be coincided with the announcement of US Secretary of State that US would oppose any activity which harms Japan’s administration on Senkaku Islands. The escalation must be silent protest against the events in Japan and US.

Considering what is the true intention, we need to think that China is trying to communicate more with US than Japan. China must be frustrated with the hawkish attitude of Abe administration. In terms of military strategy, however, Senkaku Islands don’t matter very much. But what if China can make a deal with US over those small islands? The leaders of China may think that Senkaku can lead to big gain with small risk, or be a sprat to catch a mackerel. If US is less committed to the issue, China can take stronger position against Japan. And if US is deeply involved in the issue, China would make this issue to be a direct deal with US. That’s why China closely watches the response of Japan-US alliance.

Be Strong without Violence

He hit on their faces, scolded them saying “You should die.” Searching for asylum, those fifteen girls openly accused him after all. That is the story of women judo national team of Japan. Regretting the team members’ complaints, Ryuji Sonoda stepped down as the head coach, admitting his violence during a training camp of the team. However, his resignation would not solve all the problems. That is because the team needs to be strong without using physical punishments, which have been traditional method for their training.

The fifteen female judo wrestlers sent a letter to the Japanese Olympic Committee at the end of last year for accusing Sonoda’s violence. It included hitting athletes with a bamboo-made kendo sword, and forcing an injured athlete to participate a match. Some of them raised their voice to the Japan Judo Federation last Septemeber, but the federation made almost no effort to investigate. So, they appealed to JOC this time.

The officials of the federation have been relatively sympathetic to Sonoda, saying “He was very eager in educating judo wrestlers,” or “We believe he can manage it.” But the accusation was based on deep disappointment to him and the federation. Understanding that the team would not follow him, Sonoda announced his resignation.

Judo is a sport fundamentally different from other games. While marking the highest record and winning are the most important in field and track games, they are not for judo. Determination, perseverance, or stability is as important as overcoming others. The same can be said to karate, kendo or other martial arts of Japan. To train physical toughness, use of physical punishment has been recognized as an effective method. This traditional mind will not be changed by a single resignation of a head coach.

Not only physical punishment matters. There are mental factors behind the scandal. Athletes also complained to the way the federation announced London Olympic members last summer. Without any information to the wrestlers, the federation picked up national team members from all candidates getting together, separating the wrestlers winners and losers. The firm connection of Sonoda with high officials of the federation was pressure for obedience to the wrestlers.

The social response of Japan was strange. Most media criticized Sonoda and the federation from the perspective that violence was absolute evil. But judo as a martial art is close to exercise of physical power, or violence. The argument lacks the aspect to what extent the exercise of power is allowed in sports.

The government is leaning on how to demonstrate political justice. To show their ability to solve the problem, the governmental officials consider launching the consultative organization for accepting accusations, appealing that they were doing something. Some even worry about bad reputation of Japan as a candidate for the summer Olympic games in 2020. Most seem to be ignoring the crisis of Japan judo.

China Up in the Air

The tension between Japan and China in the East China Sea seems to be raised from the sea to the air. The scrambles against Chinese aircrafts by the Air Self Defense Force of Japan increased last year. Notably, the number marked a steep high during the period just after the government of Japan purchased the Senkaku Islands. There appeared some analyses which indicated a possible military collision between those two countries.

The number of scrambles against Chinese aircraft in 2012 (April to December) was 160, while it was 156 in 2011 (April 2011 to March 2012). Amongst 160, 91 was concentrated in the quarter of October to December.

The scramble is ordered when a foreign aircraft penetrates Japan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), set outside of Japan’s territory, without notification. Most aircraft came in ADIZ were early warning aircrafts of Chinese military. In addition, an aircraft of Chinese National Maritime Agency invaded Japan’s territorial air on December 13^th last year. It is obvious that Chinese government became nervous about the Senkaku purchase.

The officials of Ministry of Defense regard this Chinese activity as going to be longtime effort to appeal its territorial cause. But the effort is turning its shape from movement to intimidation. It was reasonable for US Secretary of State to warn China last month, saying ”US opposes any action which unilaterally harms Japanese administration of Senkaku Islands.”

China is reportedly preparing for a war with Japan. The Chinese Liberation Army News reported last month the order of the official of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which required war preparation. The Asahi Shimbun introduced on Monday of Xi Jinping’s statement; “The greatest dream of ours is the restoration of Chinese ethnicity.” On the back ground of it is Liu Yuan, an office of Chinese military and a son of former chairman of PRC Liu Shaoqi. It is possible that the ambitious attitude of Xi is affected by military-oriented Liu Yuan.

There are miscalculations both on Japan and China. Although Japan’s ability of air battle may be superior to China, Japan does not seem to count enough on missile ability of China. China is ignoring the possibility that its intimidation may push Japan to the corner of militarism. While the great majority of Japanese don’t support to change the Article 9 of the constitution of Japan, most of them are frustrated with Chinese aggressive action in the East China Sea. Leaders of both countries need to cool their mind down.

Paradox on Okinawa

Is Prime Minister standing on Okinawa or United States? That has been the question cast on every PM of Japan. This time, PM Abe looks like standing on Okinawa side. In the meeting with the Governor of Okinawa, Hirokazu Nakaima, Abe promised to work hard for reducing the burden of Okinawa. “Ok, just do it,” the people in Okinawa would say. The point is how to improve the relationship with US, which was deteriorated during DPJ administration.

The main point of the meeting between PM and the governor was that Abe promised not to apply the reclamation in Henoko to the governor of Okinawa, a process needed for building an alternative facility for Futenma Marine Air Base, before Japan-US summit talk expected later this month. While the government of Japan unilaterally forwarded the environmental assessment around Henoko coast, the protesters in Okinawa has been trying to block that. Every time the government made new effort, the relationship between national and local government became worth.

Regretting the history of Okinawa issue, Abe is focusing on reconstructing good relationship. Fortunately for him, Nakaima is closer to LDP than DPJ. When Nakaima was elected as the governor in 2006, LDP led by then PM Abe supported his campaign. This time, Abe started his commitment to Okinawa with developing personal relationship with the governor. On the policy level, he increased national budget for the development of Okinawa. Nakaima appreciates to this soft attitude of Abe administration so far.

Once the topic goes to Futenma issue, however, their friendship can turn to be rivalry. When Nakaima reelected in 2010, he unequivocally announced his standpoint as anti-Henoko. During DPJ administration, there happened a number of problems in Okinawa. A rape of a woman by American military personnel stimulated the resentment of Okinawan people against US military base. Ill-informed by the government, the deployment of tiltrotor aircraft, MV-22 Osprey, caused broad protest requiring other places to redeployment. Basic attitude of Nakaima still is that “it is unrealistic to move Futenma base to Henoko.” Thinking of firm opposition in Okinawa, it is unlikely to settle the Futenma issue this year.

If Okinawa issue takes time, what is Abe going to talk about with US President Barack Obama later this month? Is it possible for both countries to renew the Guideline of Japan-US Defense Cooperation without any breakthrough in Okinawa? The closer Abe goes to Okinawa, the farther the distance of Japan-US relationship becomes. There seems to be no solution on that so far.

Divider in Chief

“The biggest crisis we face is that the Japanese lost their confidence,” told PM Abe in the address to the National Diet. It is not correct. The problem we now have is split between ourselves. The more he takes on his original issues, the broader the social rift becomes. Actually, Abe plays his role as the Divider in Chief.

Abe harshly criticized the plan for energy and environmental policy, in which the former DPJ government proposed diminishing nuclear energy in Japan to zero in 2030s. “It is irresponsible for the government to have such policy,” told Abe and made clear his intention to review DPJ policy from “zero base.” The resumption of nuclear reactors in power plants is required by major pressure groups of big industries. On the other side, people are unprecedentedly aware of the huge cost of nuclear generation after the accident in the First Fukushima Nuclear Plant. It is simply the effusion of egoism for PM to ignore broad anxiety against nuclear power, while safety requirements are not sufficient in any reactor in Japan.

It is a rhetoric to emphasize a non-military nation, while claiming amendment of constitutional provision which guarantees renunciation of war. Even though there are a number of people who doubt the legitimacy of the constitution, only a few require the change of Article 9. It is Abe and a few legislators to be eager to make the Japanese a war-fighting nation. “The Self-defense Force of Japan is actually recognized as a force in foreign countries. But the name of ‘Jieitai’ does not mean force. By changing its name to ‘Kokubogun,’ which means actual force, the Japanese force will be helped by friend force, if it is attacked by an enemy,” said Abe. This reasoning is embarrassingly groundless. Enemy for us is enemy for our friends. The friend force would help Japanese force, regardless its name, to protect not only for us but for themselves. His intention of changing Article 9 creates doubts in the hearts of the Japanese and neighbor nations.

Moreover, Abe is a typical revisionist of post-war history. He intends to replace Kono statement which approved Japan’s responsibility in “comfort woman” issue, ignoring the criticisms in foreign countries. While most people in Japan want to maintain good relationships with neighbor countries, the Prime Minister doesn’t seem to want it. For him, his own pride comes first, national interest second. He also closed a channel to solve Senkaku issue diplomatically. Not so many people in Japan don’t want diplomatic solution, when it is possible. It is false strategy to unequivocally announce dropping one option in diplomacy.

Those attitude stems from his leaning on a typical group on the right side of Japan. Making politics privatize, he divides Japan in two.