The tension between Japan and China in the East China Sea
seems to be raised from the sea to the air. The scrambles against Chinese
aircrafts by the Air Self Defense Force of Japan increased last year. Notably,
the number marked a steep high during the period just after the government of
Japan purchased the Senkaku Islands. There appeared some analyses which
indicated a possible military collision between those two countries.
The number of scrambles against Chinese aircraft in 2012
(April to December) was 160, while it was 156 in 2011 (April 2011 to March
2012). Amongst 160, 91 was concentrated in the quarter of October to December.
The scramble is ordered when a foreign aircraft penetrates
Japan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ), set outside of Japan’s
territory, without notification. Most aircraft came in ADIZ were early warning
aircrafts of Chinese military. In addition, an aircraft of Chinese National
Maritime Agency invaded Japan’s territorial air on December 13th
last year. It is obvious that Chinese government became nervous about the
Senkaku purchase.
The officials of Ministry of Defense regard this Chinese
activity as going to be longtime effort to appeal its territorial cause. But
the effort is turning its shape from movement to intimidation. It was
reasonable for US Secretary of State to warn China last month, saying ”US
opposes any action which unilaterally harms Japanese administration of Senkaku
Islands.”
China is reportedly preparing for a war with Japan. The
Chinese Liberation Army News reported last month the order of the official of
the Joint Chiefs of Staff, which required war preparation. The Asahi Shimbun introduced
on Monday of Xi Jinping’s statement; “The greatest dream of ours is the restoration
of Chinese ethnicity.” On the back ground of it is Liu Yuan, an office of
Chinese military and a son of former chairman of PRC Liu Shaoqi. It is possible
that the ambitious attitude of Xi is affected by military-oriented Liu Yuan.
There are miscalculations both on Japan and China. Although
Japan’s ability of air battle may be superior to China, Japan does not seem to
count enough on missile ability of China. China is ignoring the possibility
that its intimidation may push Japan to the corner of militarism. While the
great majority of Japanese don’t support to change the Article 9 of the
constitution of Japan, most of them are frustrated with Chinese aggressive
action in the East China Sea. Leaders of both countries need to cool their mind
down.
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