Why Mongol?

The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, for some reason, visited Mongol on Saturday. He met with the President and the Prime Minister in Ulaanbaatar and made deals on economic cooperation. It is obvious, however, that his visit was not focused on economics but politics. Ok, we all know that he want to promote containment policy against China. BTW, why Mongol?

Abe agreed with the president on providing loan for repairing thermal power plant, encouraging Japanese investment for developing coal and rare earth, and technological assistance for tackling air pollution. “This is a relationship of win-win, because Mongol is a country with great possibility of natural resource,” told Abe in the joint press conference.

From the beginning, Abe has been stressing the importance of “value oriented diplomacy,” which focused on cooperation with countries on the same basis of freedom, democracy, or market liberalism. In other words, it is a containment policy against China. The reason why he chose ASEAN to visit for his first foreign trip was also to surround China with economic cooperative framework. While America and European countries hesitate to use “containment” against China, Japan, with frustration over Senkaku issue, does not so much.

China apparently is not happy with the cooperation between Japan and Mongol. For China, Mongol has been a friendly neighbor in the same communist bloc from the Cold War era. China may accordingly feel uneasy with Japan-Mongol partnership. But actually, China has been increasing the trade with Mongol for decades. Considering the long relationship between China and Mongol, Abe’s seduction to Mongol is nothing more than a small intimidation to China.

Rather, we need to look at the domestic impact of his visit. Abe has done almost nothing in the diplomacy with China after his inauguration. While territorial invasion by Chinese vessels becomes frequent almost on everyday basis, the government of Japan has shown no deterrence against it. Abe must have needed to show some actions, being afraid of criticism on his handling of security policy, in which he appeals building “strong Japan.”

If Mongol is so valuable for economic partnership, private sectors, not Japanese government, might have broadened the relationship with the country. Having friends is not bad. But governmental action of intimidating opposing neighbor with no effective strategy should not be overestimated.

Constitutional Amendment Mongers

The focus of next election of the House of Councillors this summer would be whether advocators of constitutional amendment make two-thirds majority. It has been argued that Japan Restoration Party, a new growing power established last year, would be the key. Holding national convention for the first time, however, this ultra-right party revealed its insufficiency as a national party.

The party approved new platform in the convention, which was overwhelmingly painted with nationalism. “We lead this state and nation to a true independence by amending the constitution, which forced us an unrealistic common illusion of absolute peace,” said the platform. It also emphasized their pride for Japan’s history, tradition and culture, and preservation of good legend. Their distorted pride for Japan is mainly based on their discrimination and frustration against the Chinese and the Koreans, to whom the Japanese believe to have once acted as rulers.

The biggest achievement they want this year is to occupy enough majority in the House of Councillors for constitutional amendment with other cooperative parties. The Constitution of Japan requires two-thirds of approval out of all members of each house for proposing the amendment. In the House of Representatives, leading Liberal Democratic Party and Restoration Party already occupy two-thirds of the seats. If both parties obtain the same majority in the House of Councillors, constitutional amendment is going to be real.

What is not clear, however, is what Restoration Party wants to do with the amendment. One of the co-presidents of the party, Shintaro Ishihara, obviously wants to encourage Japanese nationalism. But from the beginning of his career as a lawmaker, he has not been located in the mainstream of Japanese conservatism. His excentric notion of superiority over any other Asian nation has excluded himself from the political community with realistic idea on diplomacy.

Another co-president, Toru Hashimoto, is a simple hegemonist. As former governor of Osaka prefecture and incumbent mayor of Osaka city, his policy has been focused on destroying Tokyo’s bureaucratic control over autonomy. So, it is fair to say that he mainly expects the reform of national governance by the amendment. But he is also positive for relocating Futenma Marine Base or joining Trans-Pacific Partnership that is not necessary for the mayor of Osaka. All he wants is legend.

Even if the party succeeds in making two-thirds of majority, the amendment will be different from what he wants. Meanwhile, the amendment led by them will make matters worse in the relationships with Japan’s neighbor countries. Moreover, even Japan-US alliance would be in mess by a nationalist leader who is preoccupied with resentment against the war-winner’s rule.

East Asian Strategic Review

The conclusion of the report would be that the situation in East Asia is not very preferable for Japan. The National Institute for Defense Studies, the core organization for policy research in the Ministry of Defense, released an annual report, East Asian Strategic Review. It recognized growing capability of China and North Korea, while Japan’s effort of building networks for defense cooperation in the region is not quite going well. It showed the insufficiency of Japanese security policy in the time of growing instability looming up there.

The biggest element of uncertainty in this region is apparently China. As for Senkaku issue, the report emphasized its viewpoint of preparations of Chinese military. “[I]t was already meticulously preparing measures for advancing its claim over the Senkakus from a very early stage,” argues the report, raising the evidence such as naming islets around Senkaku, revealing territorial standard line, and submitting the United Nations their own nautical chart. It also mentions political situation in China, depicting the personality of Xi Jinping as a politician who does not hesitate to stress nationalism to maintain the communist regime.

The report also reaffirms that the North Korean leadership is getting consolidated these days. Referring to the dismissal of Ri Yong Ho from Chief of General Staffs and to the replacement of Kim Jong Gak, former Minister of People’s Army, it analyzes that the regime of the first Chairman Kim Jong Un was reinforced. “If North Korea succeeds in miniaturizing nuclear warheads and acquires the ability to mount such warheads on ballistic missiles, it would intensify the threat to regional security from North Korea’s nuclear capability.

On the other hand, situation of Japanese possible partner in East Asia is not fully following its intention. India is getting reluctant to be included in the alliance led by the United States, as it enhances economic capabilities. Australia, one of the trilateral players with US and Japan, is annoyed with the requirement of cutting defense budget. Even US sufferes from internal demands of budget cutting. The report listed challenges of US implementation of “rebalancing,” raising US uncertainty of improving relationship with China, successful functioning of ASEAN, and how US will still be involved in Middle East.

Although the report made no recommendation to Japanese government, it is obvious that Japan need more strategic approach to the security issues in East Asia. Not only the analysis of NDIS with the aspect of Defense Ministry, Japan needs concerted approach with diplomatic, political, business, cultural and everything else’s efforts.

East Asian Cold War

What is that significance in the century of Asia? The two leaders of China and Russia met in Moscow and delivered a joint statement for further cooperation in the issues of security, territorial unity and sovereignty. It was no wonder for them to have agreed on the notion that their bilateral relationship was very good, because they have common opportunity. That was obviously to confront against the United States and Japan. It sounded like new cold war in East Asia.

Xi Jinping chose Russia as the first country to visit as new Chinese President, which showed his high expectation to Russian cooperation. “The purpose of this visit is to build strategic partnership and to develop cooperation in all aspects,” told Xi in the meeting. Putin emphasized the significance of that bilateral relationship as “the most important element in world politics.”

In terms of security, those two leaders were looking at counter measures against US. Russia has been doubtful about US intention of deploying missile defense system in Eastern Europe to be deterrent against Russian missiles. China has also been sensitive about the deployment of US radar capability in Japan. The strategic motivation of taking care of pressure from US is common for them. They also reconfirmed their cooperation in the issues over Syria and North Korea.

In the area of sovereignty, they share common interest against Japan. While China holds a hot issue over Senkaku Islands, Russia has been keeping gridlocked negotiation over the Northern Islands of Japan. To put a pressure on Japan, the two leaders demonstrated their mutual support on each interpretation of history, and acknowledged the issues as “core interests” for both, endorsing Chinese standpoint to take the Senkaku issue as such. At the speech in a college in Moscow, Xi referred to compliance of the Charter of the United Nation, which is a basis of Russia’s appeal for its legitimacy over the Northern Islands.

However, the future of their cooperation has fuzzy elements over energy. Although they agreed on comprehensive cooperation over energy supply, including petroleum and natural gas, from Russia to China, it was still unclear in what price they exchange natural gas. While China is suspicious about stable supply of Russia, Russia is doubtful about the attitude of China to purchase shale gas, which may cause decline of natural gas price.

Counteracting that closer relationship of China and Russia, Japan is considering wedging it. The Defense Minister, Itsunori Onodera, told the Ambassador of Russia to Japan about concern of China’s transferring weapons from Russia to the third parties. In the summit meeting between Japan and Russia next month, Japan would be going to direct Russan intention to Japan rather than China. However, in the time of getting high the tension in the Korea Peninsula, it is not good phenomenon that East Asia cold war is spreading.

Leftist Textbooks

It got back to the left side again. The Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology in Japan (MEXT), so ridiculously long name that indicated poor English education in this country, reported the conclusion of examination for high school textbooks. In dealing with the expression about Okinawa and the comfort women in history books, the ministry allowed more victim-oriented views than current ones, even if it would lead to criticisms against the government. Some say that it was affected by former Democratic administration

The government of Japan requires all public schools to use textbooks authorized by the Council of Textbook Examination in MEXT. The ministry says that textbooks need to be just, objective and moderated for appropriate education. The council, consisted by college professors and teachers of high, mid, and elementary schools, examines some textbooks edited by private publishers every year. If they find an inappropriate expression, they send their opinions to the publisher.

The biggest topic this year was that the council examined history textbooks from a viewpoint of victims of the World War II. In some textbooks, there were expressions that the group suicides in Okinawa at the last moments of the war had been “forced” by military. The council approved that for the first time. In 2006 examination, the same expression had not passed the council. After the publishers corrected the expression, people in Okinawa protested it and MEXT allowed descriptions like “engagements of army” or “Okinawa people were pushed to suicide.”

On the comfort women, one textbook changed the expression from “some were taken away as comfort women” to “some were taken away by military as comfort women.” The council added no opinion to that. Although the government of Japan takes a position that there has not been found any source to indicate that forcibility. According to Sankei Shimbun, MEXT explained that the expression did not clearly indicate forcibility.

Problems over territories were written based on nationalistic notions. Nine out of ten approved textbooks deals with Takeshima and Senkaku, to which arguments with South Korea and China is ongoing. Another topic this year was a lot of textbooks doubted the myth of nuclear power generation and raised discussion over future energy resources.

General assessments for this year’s examination is it got back to the situation before 2006, when the council shifted to the right under Shinzo Abe’s first administration. This time, the council started the examination under liberal DPJ administration last spring. That’s why the specialists see some influence from DPJ. However, the examination is always be affected by politics. This attitude may be changed soon.

National Election Void

Not only politicians but also plaintiffs were surprised. The Hiroshima High Court made a decision that the general election of the House of Representatives last December had been unconstitutional and the disputed election in the district 1 and 2 in Hiroshima prefecture invalid. It is the first time in Japan for a court to sentence a national election to be void. The reason was that the difference of one-vote value in the election, that was the difference of numbers of voters for one lawmaker depending on electoral district, had been too large in light of equality under the law. That showed the uniqueness of Japanese version of democracy, which required high level of equality.

After the Supreme Court of Japan decided that the general election in 2009 was in “a situation of unconstitutional,” the lawmakers kept on discussing how to fix the problem, which made no valuable conclusion. Against the December election, which was executed with no improvement, two lawyers groups took legal actions to seventeen high courts in Japan requiring invalidation of the election.

The decision of Hiroshima strongly supported the decision of the Supreme Court two years ago, and accused the negligence of the lawmakers. Although former decisions had been avoiding invalidation not to invite extreme confusion in national politics, Hiroshima recognized that lawmakers’ lack of sense had been unbearable in spite of enough time they had had.

The significance of the decision was about credibility of politics. In Japan, people basically expect high sense of morality to politics. That was why they had sensitively been responding to bribe cases like the Lockheed Incident and the Recruit Case. This case over equality of one-vote value showed the laziness of lawmakers to abide by a requirement of the constitution, while they poses various laws and taxes on their citizens. Most people recognize that the incompetent lawmakers invited that hard decision.

The Hiroshima High Court set a suspension of invalidity of the election for about eight months. Before the expiration, the Supreme Court will decide for all accusations raised all over Japan. Considering the ignorance of lawmakers, the Court may take one step forward to accuse politics. But it seems to be unlikely to request the general election again. Because judicial office would not ultimately force legislative office a denial of qualification, lawmakers are still optimistic about their own reform. That is a vicious cycle of Japanese democracy. If they are too long reluctant to be compliant, however, every political decision, including economic recovery policy or improvement in Japan-US relationship, will be baseless without supports from the people.

Authority’s Strange Shift

One half a year after its establishment, the Nuclear Regulation Authority in Japan began to make strange move. From the beginning, it has been putting highest priority on safety of nuclear power generation. Now this organization looks like worrying about supply of electricity, which should not have been its job. The new strict safety standard for nuclear power plants, which will be applied to all nuclear reactors in Japan from this summer, may be castrated.

At a current meeting of the authority, the chairman Shun-ichi Tanaka presented a personal opinion for their discussion, which is mainly focused on the only two operating reactors in Oi Nuclear Power Plant. It reportedly referred to a possibility of halting those reactors, “if a significant problem is found after reconfirming the fitness of Oi reactors for the new standard by July.”

However, the wording is unclear about how the authority is serious about safety standard. “Reconfirming” can include some possible exception in the assessment, different from “examining.” “Significant problem” is also unclear about what it means. The standard to halt nuclear reactors is still not determined.

The attitude of Tanaka is getting ambiguous these days. “If we suddenly stop twenty reactors at once, how our society will be?” asked Tanaka in a press conference. He indicated that one or two unfitness to new regulation would not immediately lead to stopping operation. This commitment in political consideration marked a contrast with his former standpoint that had been strictly based on scientific findings.

The focus now is on whether the third and the forth reactor in Oi, the only two operating reactors in Japan, can keep on working this summer. There is an argument that Oi should be recognized as an exception of new standard from a viewpoint not only to reserve power for hot whether, but also to make a momentum for a change from nuclear abolitionism to nuclear survival. The ambiguous explanation of Tanaka might have revealed a possible struggle in the nuclear community in Japan, regardless politics, business and academics.

The upholders of nuclear generation tend to think that if a land is vulnerable for nuclear plant, they need to find another place. Their contenders think that whole land of Japan is totally vulnerable for nuclear power plant and it is unavailable. Although the authority has been trying to be neutral between them by introducing a viewpoint of science, science keeps on showing its limitation. Nuclear generation in Japan has been too much dependent on so called “science.”

Joint Pressure on China

Might the news have shaken China? Nikkei reported that Japan and the United States force are preparing a joint operations planning by this summer. The operation includes possible contingency operation around the Senkaku Islands, where Chinese official vessels keep on invading Japanese territory. The government of China made an immediate response to that, saying that it held significant concern to the joint action. This quickness showed the sensitivity of China to US involvement in disputes over territories in Asia- Pacific region.

Different from joint operation for situations in areas surrounding Japan, in which Japan owes logistical support for US, the joint operation planning over Senkaku contingency is based on self-defense right of Japan. US will join the operation of defending Japan, according to the Article V of Japan-US Security Treaty, in which US has a duty to protect Japan. As Nikkei reported, the planning includes Japan’s supply for US force, listing of port and airport for US use and listing of hospitals for caring the injured. It also determines how to take back Senkaku Islands from Chinese capture.

“Any external pressure cannot shake the determination of Chinese nation and government to preserve our territory and sovereignty,” told the deputy spokesman for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in China, Hong Lei. “The government of China has a capability to protect our territory and sovereignty,” he added.

It is current tendency of China to be nervous about US intervention in the troubles between China and its neighbor countries. After the confrontation between China and Philippine over the Scarborough Shoal last year, China was extremely worried about the joint military exercise by Philippine and US. It also criticized Philippine request for US patrol over South China Sea by surveillance aircrafts, P3C. Some experts in Japan suppose that this involvement of US in South China Sea shifted Chinese interest from Philippine and Vietnam to Japan, namely Senkaku Issue.

It is imaginable that China is highly frustrated with US engagement to the Japan-US alliance. Although it is not sure that US involvement drew a sense of compromise, the attitude of China seems to be softened these few days. In a meeting with Japanese top businessmen, Chinese Vice-President, Li Yuanchao, revealed his recognition that Senkaku issue has been affecting trade, travel, economic exchange between China and Japan. “This abnormal relationship is not beneficial for both countries. This leads to cutting each other’s throat,” Li reportedly warned. The President, Xi Jinping, chose Russia for his first overseas trip. With criticisms against Japanese administration on Senkaku, Xi reiterated Chinese right over those islands. But those words of top leaders indicate Chinese disturbance over the security situation around it.

What US Needs to Know about Okinawa

The government of Japan on Friday submitted a request of permission to the local government of Okinawa, which was needed for the landfill on Henoko coastal area in Nago city in the north of Okinawa Island. Although the process is necessary for the relocation plan of Futenma Air Base of United States Marine Corp, there seems to be no chance to have the permission from the governor of Okinawa. Looking this gridlock as a matter between Tokyo and Okinawa, US government just waits and sees what is happening. But, there are something US leaders need to know about it.

Firstly, pushing current relocation plan undermines democracy of Okinawa. Regardless of handlings by the administration of Democratic Party of Japan was good or bad, all forty-one cities, towns and villages in Okinawa, in addition to Okinawa prefectural congress, had passed the resolutions of resisting Henoko relocation plan. Every small town in Japan has its own decision making system mainly through local congress. In terms of Henoko plan, Okinawa is unanimously against it. An attempt to overturn that decision may recognized as a pressure from dictatorial power.

Secondly, although the protest is mainly made against Tokyo, people in Okinawa see no difference of US government from the government of Japan. Toward Japanese government, Okinawa feels rigidity and inflexibility on a decision, intensified neglect or ignorance of what people think about, and hopelessness for their demands. But the people suppose those attitudes of Tokyo is not genuinely determined by the government itself, but is controlled by America. The more US government keeps silent, the further Okinawa becomes doubtful about American influence.

Lastly, people in Okinawa basically want to stay in Japan as responsible citizens. That was because they were proud of being Japanese citizens that they had been angry about being separated from Japan and laid under the administration of US in 1951. They are not fundamentally saying that all US bases must be gone, but are willing to accept moderate burden for Japan’s national security. They are just saying that it is not fair.

Having said that, leaders of the US government have to acknowledge the necessity of talking with Japanese government more about how to deal with Okinawa issue. Leaving this issue on the hand of Japanese government, America virtually keeps on pushing burdens on Okinawa making matters worse. It is impossible for a government to remove all the people, even how it wants to make a great fortress there. If their requirements are not fulfilled so long, the people in Okinawa may be looking for friends other than Japan and US.

Absurd Mouse

A Japanese would call it “just a mouse appeared after a big mountain rumbled.” In Latin, it must be parturient montes, nascetur ridiculus mus, the expression that in English is “mountain will be in labor, and an absurd mouse will be born.” Tokyo Electric Power Company announced on Wednesday that 29-hour blackout at the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant might have caused by a short-circuit with a mouse that gnawed nylon of cable. The blackout affected nine facilities of the plant including the pools holding over six thousand used fuel rods. Tensions got high among the officers of the government and TEPCO. The mouse reminded us of that the crisis there had not gone.

The blackout revealed problems of the process of dismantling those broken reactors. The electric power resource had been provided by temporary system made to keep on cooling the reactors and nuclear fuels. If the system stops, they will be overheated leading to an unprecedented disaster. In spite of holding that risk, the distributer was set outside of building without any back-up system.

TEPCO again showed its own secretive character by delaying the report of the fact of blackout for three hours. To justify and underestimate their slow response, they kept on call the blackout “phenomenon” instead of “accident.” After information of blackout was reported, residents around the nuclear power plant were afraid of another explosion of the site. Anxiety of living in such an uncomfortable situation disturbs people who consider coming back to live in their hometown. No resident actually believes anything announced by TEPCO, anyway.

The thing is that the broken power plant is so vulnerable that a tiny mischief of a mouse can cause a huge disaster. The government of Japan and TEPCO need to fix the problem as soon as possible. Although the site is overwhelmingly unreachable because of high radiation level, it is necessary to build a sustainable system of providing electrical power to maintain the cooling system, to protect power distributer from short-circuit and to stabilize the used nuclear fuels. In terms of that we could realize that, we would say that the small mouse made a big job like one who saved a lion from hunter in one of the Aesop’s Fables.

Still, politics is hopelessly narrow-minded. According to a report of Nikkei Shimbun, lawmakers in the Liberal Democratic Party consider guarding the Fukushima site with the Self-Defense Force. Preoccupation of enthusiasm for expanding roles of the force made them hold such an idea. If the force were deployed in the site, their job may be starting with looking for wild mice. It is better for those lawmakers to go to the site and actually help build a more sustainable system in high radiation than discussing incompetent idea in Tokyo.

Loser without a Fight

Ten years after the first strike of the United States on Iraq, the Japanese still do not understand what the war was. The explanation of the government that the war was against weapons of mass destruction became baseless after the investigation revealed no such weapons in Iraq. Most Japanese believes the assistance of their government to the United States was inferiority of then Prime Minister Jun-ichiro Koizumi in relationship with US President George W. Bush. Without any precise review, PM Shinzo Abe wants to make Japan a war-fighting country.

According to an interview of Asahi Shimbun to former PM Yasuo Fukuda, the Chief Cabinet Secretary at the time of the beginning of Iraq War, there was a “gaiatsu,” pressure from outside, just before the decision of supporting the attack on Iraq by US and UK. It actually was a phone call from the British PM Tony Blair of a request to support, and Koizumi announced Japan’s support right after that. “In spite our efforts to collect information, we had nothing. That was crucial,” told Fukuda in the interview.

The attitude of the government toward verification of the handlings of the Iraq War has been far from seriousness. Although a committee of the House of Representatives passed a resolution in 2007 that required the government of verification, the only result was a brief report made in DPJ administration last year, which has a few conclusion on the decision of Japan’s support. It made a clear contrast with the efforts of UK or Netherland, in which independent organization reported the result of interviewing responsible officials.

The significance of Japan’s participation in the Iraq War, even though it was logistical and reconstructive support, was that it broke the principle of not sending troops to the land where war was fighting. As a result of support and participation, Japan stepped out from the neutral position between the Western nations and the Middle East. Arab nations said to have changed their recognition to Japan. As was shown in the assault on natural gas plant in Algeria, there is a tendency of terrorism in the Middle East to target the Japanese. It is doubted that Japan had lost the war without actual fighting.

The explanation of then PM was ridiculously rough. “If the relationship between Japan and US is alright, everything is going to be alright,” said Koizumi. There has never been a time when everything in the world was controlled by Japan-US alliance. What has Japan gotten from supporting Bush’s war? What did Japan lose by joining the war? The government of Japan led by PM Shinzo Abe, who was vice-Chief Cabinet Secretary at the beginning of the Iraq War, is responsible for answering those questions.

Apocalypse on Japan

It sounded like the Last Judgment. A working group of Central Disaster Prevention Council on Monday released an estimation of damages by possible great earthquake in Nankai Trough, a deep ditch extended along offshore Japan. Although it supposed the worst case, the estimated damages would be too great for the nation to be resilient. The thing is how the Japanese respond to it.

Nankai Trough is the border between the Eurasia Plate and the Philippine Sea Plate in the bottom of the Pacific Ocean. Frictions between those two plates had been producing a number of earthquakes with magnitude 8 occurred once in every 100 to 150 years. The estimation deliberately took the worst case with magnitude 9.1, which had not been recorded in the history.

The supposed number of victims in Nankai Trough Earthquake is 323 thousand, which is seventeen times higher than Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. The damage to Japanese economy would be ¥220 trillions, which amounts to 42% of gross domestic products of Japan. ¥170 trillions out of whole damages would be direct damages to houses and industrial facilities, while decline of productions and services was estimated to be ¥44 trillions. This scenario actually means the bankruptcy of Japan.

The estimation reminds of how the government of Japan has been concentrating its development on the shore of the Pacific Ocean. Big cities like Tokyo, Osaka and Nagoya are located on the shoreline. A large amount of investments was dropped on those city areas, with the initiatives of politics, bureaucracies and business entities. Although some politicians had tried to shift the axis from Pacific coast to Japan Sea side, they were excluded from politics with money scandals.

The government is mainly responding to the estimates with strengthening infrastructure. Along with “homeland strengthening initiative” addressed by leading Liberal Democratic Party, the government invests on renewing roads and bridges, reinforcing buildings against earthquake, or stocking foods and fuels. The government has no idea of reducing the risks by downsizing big cities.

The counter actions of industries are relocating their facilities to safer places. Some are moving their factory to rural area and others have plans for setting facilities on hills to escape from tsunami. But as long as the government is investing on shoreline cities, dissemination of functions of big city would not be achieved. Although the lesson we learned from the great earthquake two years ago was that we must review our civilization, this ailing government cannot run anywhere but on railroads already laid.

Chinese Dream

In early seventeenth century, Pilgrims started an effort to build a land of freedom and opportunities. To achieve them has been called American dream. On another continent, China began to refer to achieving China dream. Still, it is unclear what exactly the dream is. Although the Chinese have every right to be prosperous, they need to be careful of harming its neighbors by being preoccupied with seeking their dream.

The speech of new president of China, Xi Jinping, was wholly filled with self-assurance. “To achieve Chinese dream, you need to uphold Chinese spirit. That is the national spirit with a core of patriotism, or the spirit in the time of reform,” told Xi in the closing remarks of the People’s National Congress on Sunday. So, what is the definition of Chinese dream?

According to a report of Sankei Shimbun, Xi reiterated the definition of the dream as “great restoration of Chinese nation.” Behind that concept, there is a sentiment that the Chinese have been forced to stay in a humiliating situation after the defeat in the Opium War in the middle of nineteenth century. The dream for China would be taking back those one hundred and seventy years and emerging to the world as a superpower.

One of the ways for achieving the dream should be expanding to Pacific Ocean. Xi emphasized the necessity of strengthening military power to achieve the goal of making a super power. With maintaining moderate relationship with the United States, China try to get rid of Japan’s influence in the East China Sea by frequently invade Japanese territory around Senkaku islands. Listing the words such as sovereignty, territorial security or national unity, China is justifying its aggression to the sovereignty of Japan.

China defined the Sankaku as a core interest last year. Even though the Chinese want to take Senkaku to cast their power to the ocean, it should not be tolerated to unilaterally invade other’s territory with a background of military power. And the Chinese also have to take care of their growth based on sacrifices of others. It is recognized that polluted air in industrial region in China is flowing to other nation’s territory. Responsibility for the residents in this planet matters.

As long as the people in China is enthusiastic about their growth, it would be unlikely for them to look back and think about their neighbors. But if they ignore their responsibility and others’ inalienable values, they will again be isolated in the world. If the dream had an intoxicative effect, they are looking like going toward another Opium War. The world is not as simple as it used to be one hundred and seventy years ago.

Blooming Arrogance

Visible or invisible, arrogance covered the conference. The Liberal Democratic Party, the leading party of Japan chaired by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, held on Sunday annual national convention in Tokyo. After the landsliding victory in general election of the House of Representatives last December, LDP has been relieved from its slump as an opposite party of the administration of Democratic Party of Japan. Now the leaders of LDP is targeting to another victory in the election of the House of Councillors in this early summer. However, voters are watching how LDP reviewed its history.

The arrogance was shown in the speech of its leader. “Let the country named Japan bloom in the center of the world. I will retake the pride of Japanese nations by winning the election of the House of Councillors,” told Abe in opening remarks of the convention. Friends were worried about it. “You must not be arrogant, even though everything has been going well. You should also not go forward with haste,” said Natsuo Yamaguchi, the leader of New Komaeito, the partner of cabinet coalition.

Abe’s self-confidence is overwhelmingly baseless. He seems to be confident on his handlings of economics because of the move of markets preferable to him. Actually, stock market rallied after his inauguration. But it was based not only the Japan factor, but the US factor. With the escape from fiscal cliff at the end of last year, New York Stock Exchange enjoyed rallying and marked record high of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. There is no fundamental evidence that Abenomics was right decision.

He also emphasized his success in diplomacy. “The close tie of Japan-US alliance was reformed completely,” told Abe. Had that tie been broken? Is the tie in perfect condition? While he accepted US request to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership, there are critics of Japan’s participation in US. Both governments are promoting agreed plan of relocating Futenma Marine Air Base to another place in Okinawa, as well as former DPJ administration. Having changed nothing, his assailing was baseless. In terms of diplomacy, he had done nothing on Senkaku issue, except accusing the Chinese activities only inside Japan.

Keeping on saying “we are the champions,” LDP is trying to collect votes in the election of the House of Councillors. Abe set a goal to take 64 or more seats with New Komeito to get simple majority in the House. While he said he would carefully listen to the nations, he often refers to seeking his personal goals, including constitutional amendment or reviewing the Kono Statement on comfort women. The point is whether the voters have insight about what he really is going to do.

Troubled Water

The world needs to remind of the melted fuel rods in the First Fukushina Nuclear Power Plant. They have to be cooled down, otherwise they radiate extremely high temperature and get into unstable situation. What does cool them down? Water does. To cool them down, a huge amount of water is required. So the process produces a huge amount of water contaminated by radioactive materials. Where will it go? That is the problem. Although Tokyo Electric Power Company says they will keep it in tanks around the site, they are doubted to have leaked it to the Pacific Ocean. Serious investigation is required.

Through the process of cooling the melted fuel rods, TEPCO produced 260 thousand tons of contaminated water last two years. The water has been stocked in big tanks located around the site. Although there is a pessimistic assessment that the space for tanks is limited, or the possibility of collapse of the tank caused by deterioration, TEPCO keeps optimistic plan to deal with the problem by building the capacity up to 700 thousand tons.

That discussion is based on the notion that the contaminated water has been contained in the tanks. A report of Japanese public broadcasting undermined that basis. According to the report of NHK, the leak of contaminated water is suspected, because the radioactive level of seawater inside the port for the power plant has been consecutively high even after TEPCO declared the leak was stopped in June 2011. The research group of Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology confirmed that the consistency of Cesium 137 in the seawater has been around 100 Bq per liter. That meant that 16.9 trillion Bq of Cesium 137 had been flowed into the water.

It is obvious that the method of cooling melted fuel rods by water and stocking the contaminated water in tanks will reach a limit anyway. TEPCO now is thinking of releasing the water to the sea after “purification.” It is said that the purification can remove 62 kinds of radioactive materials, however, only tritium cannot be removed anyhow. If TEPCO insist on the plan, it may become one of the greatest seawater polluters in history.

What we need is precise information about what is going on. If TEPCO insists on their process to be right, it needs to explain why the radiation level of the seawater has not been improved. The credibility of the tanks will also be needed. In addition, if TEPCO is releasing the water, it is necessary to show how radioactive materials removed from the contaminated water will be dealt with. Not only the government of Japan, also the world needs to put a pressure on TEPCO to answer the questions.

Mitigation Care

The status of medical doctors in Japan is high enough to form a privileged community in every corner of its society. In this situation, it is unlikely for a patient to reject medical care even if he/she does not want, because initiative of whether or not to cure a disease is on the hand of doctor. As its result, a patient actually cannot have a right to halt terminal care. Some doctors, however, attempt to take care of patients based on patients’ happiness. Mitigation care is one of those actions.

It is easier for medical doctors to make a small community. The number of students in medical college is limited because of the limitation of facility of each college. Although the government of Japan took a policy of increasing medical divisions in every prefecture in 1960s, the doctors are not much increased last a half of century. It might have been possible that pressure group of doctors lobbied to limit the numbers.

With the help of universal health care system, the doctors are guaranteed of their stable income, which is always higher than middle class workers. There is a point system, in which doctors are rewarded based on how much treatment they do to their patient. The more they treat, the richer they become. Nevertheless, they ignore this negative aspect of system, because they actually too busy to feel guilty of their rich income.

A typical problem is seen at the terminal care. Doctors are so proud of their skill to cure illness that they tend to try to extend the life of incurable patients. If a patient is too old to decide what to do, he/she can be forced to stand for painful treatments. Even though the doctor does not want it, patient’s family may sometimes request the doctor to exercise life extension care, because they cannot accept the incurability of the patient. Without knowing true situation of himself/herself, the patient does not have a right to choose how he/she will end the life.

Mitigation care is one solution for that kind of tragedy. It is based on the decision to halt medical care in incurable stage of a disease. With substantial consultation to medical doctor, patient chooses to leave hospital and live ending period of life in his/her own home with loved families. Recognizing that the death is not a failure of medical care, but a natural consequence of a human being, more doctors get to understand the importance of mitigation care.

This includes an important meaning in democracy of Japan. To be independent from doctors’ decision is to obtain individual dignity. Choosing the end state of one’s own right should be regarded as an inalienable right of a democratic citizen.

No Plan For A Century

Was it right choice or wrong? The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced on Friday that Japan is going to join the negotiation of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a multi-lateral free trade agreement of the countries around the Pacific Ocean. He told the nation that the decision was “a plan for a century.” Without any clear vision for sustainable agriculture, however, Abe is changing the economic structure in Japan toward the wrong direction. True century plan shows how to secure foods.

Although the government estimates that Japan is going to raise its gross domestic products by ¥3.2 trillion in next ten years, agricultural products is declining from ¥8 trillion to ¥5 trillion. It is unclear how many people in Japan will approve that persuasion, which is simply preferable to the government.

In the press conference, Abe insisted on the importance of TPP. “This is the last chance. If we miss the chance, it is nothing but Japan’s lagging behind the rule making,” told Abe. However, what kind of rule did he refer to? Overwhelming rule of TPP is to make a framework of free trade in Asia-Pacific region. There basically will be no exception on that principle.

Abe’s promise to the nation is substantially to make “sanctuary” in the negotiation, to protect Japanese products. “I will keep the promise. I swear that I protect food and agriculture of Japan,” he said in the conference. But if he tries to keep the promise, he needs to persuade other members of TPP. It is difficult for a newcomer to change the rule of game. Canada and Mexico proved it. That is why the farmers do not believe whatever the government officials say.

The decision will be a serious blow on Japanese agriculture. Japan has been posing extremely high tariff on rice and wheat. If the tariff is removed, a great number of farmers will be forced to abandon their fields. If it leads to steep down of the rate of food sufficiency, Abe’s decision will be criticized as a terrible mistake. Although it should be a failure of agricultural policy that has not support farmers enough to be competitive, the government needs to address the situation of farmers right now.

The Japanese need to recognize TPP as a political framework for free trade, rather than as an economic policy. When it is discussed as a measure to deal with Chinese rise, TPP is nothing but something necessary for Japan as a member of free trade. On the other hand, however, Japan is enthusiastic to establish a free trade agreement with China and South Korea. How to harmonize those trade blocs is another aspect of the problem Japan has.

Expecting Stable Regime

The People’s National Congress elected Xi Jinping president on Thursday. In addition to the president of the communist party and the military chief, he made the leader of administrative office of the government of China. Without any surprise on the appointment, Japanese media reported the assumption with relatively sober tones. As the matter of fact, the top news of the day was another election in Vatican of the first pope from the American continent. Reports basically expect stable government, anyway.

Focusing point was the appointment of the vice-president, Li Yuanchao, although the pick was already reported. Regarded as an outstanding figure of reformer, Li was not elected as a member of the Politburo Standing Committee last November. Veterans of the communist party, including former president Jian Zemin and former premier Li Peng, rejected his promotion. So the pick of Li Yuanchao showed a sense of resistance of Xi against old power and stability of Xi administration.

The choice of the foreign minister also raised the expectation of Japanese government. New foreign minister, Wang Yi, is former Ambassador to Japan from 2004 to 2007, during when PM Abe received relatively good reputation in China. Knowing well about Japan, Wang is expected to play a crucial role on improving the relationship between Japan and China.

Since it is broadly recognized in Japan that current aggressive attitude of China on Senkaku issue basically stems from its internal instability, the government of Japan is closely watching how the attitude of China will change after the succeeding process of Chinese administration is finished. If the invasions of Japan’s territorial sea area by Chinese ships were driven by the necessity of showing strong standpoint toward Japan to soothe the people’s frustration against political handlings, Xi may as well be gradually soften the attitude toward Japan.

If the aggression has nothing to do with internal stability, however, problem is serious. It is unlikely for China to restrain from being aggressive only by the counter action of Japan. The only words the Chinese are listening would be American language. Unless the United States would be willing to intervene the struggle, China will continue the intimidation in Senkaku issue.

It has been said that the Xi administration is too unstable to finish ten-year term and can be collapse in five years by people’s power. Although the rise of democratic power in China is preferable for Japan, instability cannot be welcomed. That is the dilemma Japan has.

I Want To Break Free

Article IX of the Constitution of Japan is a symbol of the Japanese as a pacifist nation. The Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, however, reiterates his intention to change the provision. The reason in his words is quite simple. He says he wants to change the name of the Self-defense Force into the National Defense Force. Analyzing what he thinks, there would be two other reasons at least: resentment against occupation of the United States and breaking free from genuinely defensive situation of the country.

The article conditionally renounces its use of force, saying “the Japanese people forever renounce war as a sovereign right of the nation and the threat or use of force as means of settling international disputes.” Abe in a TV interview last Saturday questioned this provision and told “If Japan does not use force as means of settling international disputes, there would be an argument that we cannot join in measures of collective security.” There must have been a possibility of use of force by the United Nations against North Korea, which continues provocation with development of missile and nuclear weapons technology.

This was recognized as another step-up of the Prime Minister toward a militarized country. The government of Japan has been self-restrictive not to discuss the possibility of joining UN Force, because the force had not been organized any time in the past. Abe emphasized the need to prepare for a possible case of organizing UN Force, while the government has been postponing the discussion.

True purpose of his positive attitude toward expanding military role can be explained as his intention to accumulate facts of military role expansion enough to justify the constitution amendment. After making a situation in which the constitution does obviously not match, he will appeal to the public that “The constitution is out of date.”

On the background of his aggressive military policy, there is a historiography that Japan has been contained in a jail with ball and chain as a prisoner of the World War II. Having offensive force, which has been severely restricted, is a symbol of freedom for him. That is an explanation of his insisting slogan of “getting rid of post-war regime.”

Abe also seems to be extremely frustrated with the intimidation of North Korea. He has no toleration on the abduction of Japanese citizens, regarding it as an act of aggression on Japan’s sovereignty. If military attacks to North Korea are justified by an international authority, he will be eager to join it to collapse the North’s regime.

Generally speaking, supports to Abe’s aggressive policy is growing larger in Japan than at the time of his first administration. China should not accelerate this tendency by the intimidation around the Southwestern Islands including Senkaku. US also need to be careful to endorse Abe’s policies.

Volunteers Help

Missing the credibility to the governmental authority, local communities in the devastated area of the Great East Japan Earthquake are much more relying on the help of volunteers. Just after the earthquake occurred two year ago, a number of people went into the area to feed refugees, to clean up the houses or encourage depressed people who had lost their families. Now, they are doing what the government is in short of. The disaster may become a momentum for Japanese society to be a bottom-up system.

Volunteers are generally work for emergency relief in disasters. The fact that local communities needed help of volunteers showed the greatness of the disaster. Many local governments built temporary houses for people who lost houses to live. Most of them are not well-to-do enough for rebuilding their houses, and have to live there until the government build new permanent houses, which construction process is delaying due to the lack of land for that.

The important job is to support their life in temporary houses. The residents need to go to supermarket, medical clinic or office of public service. Most of them, however, are too old to walk for a long distance or to drive a car. To make them live ordinary life and avoid unnecessary depression, volunteers help their transportation using cars. That is one of the examples of what government does not do.

In Fukushima area where process of reconstruction is slow due to the contamination of radioactive materials, volunteers are still needed to remove debris or to clean up houses. College students, businessmen or housewives are gathering from everywhere in Japan and work for families or small businesses to resume their ordinary life. The level of the radiation around there is relatively so high that they are advised to reconsider volunteering, if they get nervous on it. The removing mud from garage, for example, becomes to be physical labor in thick, supposedly contaminated, dust.

Those volunteers are not motivated by their frustration on what government do or do not, but by their compassion to the sufferers. They drive cars, reserve hotels and feed themselves at their own cost. Feeling of responsibility for their fellow citizen drives them to the volunteering.

For a long time after the World War II, the progress of Japanese society has been dependent on the effort for common wealth. The Japanese for the first time saw the limit of the governmental power. True patriots worry about the future of this nation and take action for preserving life and property of the citizens.