East Asian Strategic Review

The conclusion of the report would be that the situation in East Asia is not very preferable for Japan. The National Institute for Defense Studies, the core organization for policy research in the Ministry of Defense, released an annual report, East Asian Strategic Review. It recognized growing capability of China and North Korea, while Japan’s effort of building networks for defense cooperation in the region is not quite going well. It showed the insufficiency of Japanese security policy in the time of growing instability looming up there.

The biggest element of uncertainty in this region is apparently China. As for Senkaku issue, the report emphasized its viewpoint of preparations of Chinese military. “[I]t was already meticulously preparing measures for advancing its claim over the Senkakus from a very early stage,” argues the report, raising the evidence such as naming islets around Senkaku, revealing territorial standard line, and submitting the United Nations their own nautical chart. It also mentions political situation in China, depicting the personality of Xi Jinping as a politician who does not hesitate to stress nationalism to maintain the communist regime.

The report also reaffirms that the North Korean leadership is getting consolidated these days. Referring to the dismissal of Ri Yong Ho from Chief of General Staffs and to the replacement of Kim Jong Gak, former Minister of People’s Army, it analyzes that the regime of the first Chairman Kim Jong Un was reinforced. “If North Korea succeeds in miniaturizing nuclear warheads and acquires the ability to mount such warheads on ballistic missiles, it would intensify the threat to regional security from North Korea’s nuclear capability.

On the other hand, situation of Japanese possible partner in East Asia is not fully following its intention. India is getting reluctant to be included in the alliance led by the United States, as it enhances economic capabilities. Australia, one of the trilateral players with US and Japan, is annoyed with the requirement of cutting defense budget. Even US sufferes from internal demands of budget cutting. The report listed challenges of US implementation of “rebalancing,” raising US uncertainty of improving relationship with China, successful functioning of ASEAN, and how US will still be involved in Middle East.

Although the report made no recommendation to Japanese government, it is obvious that Japan need more strategic approach to the security issues in East Asia. Not only the analysis of NDIS with the aspect of Defense Ministry, Japan needs concerted approach with diplomatic, political, business, cultural and everything else’s efforts.