Falling into a Trap

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe decided to send a delegation to Pyongyang to urge North Korea in their investigation of Japanese abductees in the country. It is a gamble for Abe to be involved in the strategy of the North, which has been called slicing salami. However, Abe cannot afford waiting for prolonged research of Pyongyang government, because he realizes the abduction issue is his critical agenda. The situation is against him as far as United States and South Korea is sober on Japan’s move.

The delegation consists of ten government officials including Jun-ichi Ihara, Bureau Chief of Asian and Oceanian Affairs of Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and others from Cabinet Secretariat or National Police Agency. They leave Japan next Monday for four-day trip to Pyongyang to meet with the member of Special Investigation Committee of North Korea. Japanese side is hoping to see So Dae-ha, Chairman of the Committee.

Strange enough, Abe explained his intention of sending the delegation on Wednesday. “The purpose is to tell persons in responsible standpoints in North Korea our recognition that abduction issue has the highest priority. We will hear current situation of the investigation and from the persons responsible for the investigation and tell them that they have to sincerely deal with it,” told Abe in the gaggle in Prime Minister’s Official Residence.

His comment had a contradiction in light with former policy toward the North. Concerting with U.S. and South Korea, Japan has been paralleling abduction issue with nuclear and missile development. This time, Abe prioritized abduction issue, leaving nuclear and missile behind. Washington and Seoul may see Abe’s attitude as distraction of cooperated effort toward North Korea.

In addition, Abe revealed Japan’s real intention on the negotiation. It was unbelievable moment when Abe told that “I decided we need to directly tell responsible person our intention and purpose, considering a risk of being unable to make further investigation by refraining from sending our delegate.” It is as if saying that a government will deal with terrorist group taking hostage, because the group may kill the hostage when ignored. It is a bad strategy in negotiation to reveal psychological disadvantage to the opposite side.

Abe is fundamentally narrow-minded to get momentum in his diplomacy. He was only seeing domestic politics, however, when he made press gaggle on this issue, ignoring possible response from allied countries. It is necessary for the leader of Japan to realize that the abduction issue cannot be solved without cooperation with at least U.S. and South Korea and supposedly China and Russia. Independent action will fail as we saw in the direct visit to Pyongyang by then Prime Minister Jun-ichiro Koizumi.