No Safe Haven for Reactors

The death toll in the explosion of Mt. Ontakesan accumulated to fifty-one, marking the biggest number in volcanic disasters at least for past seven decades. Thirteen are still missing. The Japanese cannot pass through a tragedy without learning a lesson. The lesson they have realized after a week is that system for prediction of volcanic activity has been too weak to be effective. Some are worried about impact of volcanoes on nuclear power plants. Well, land of Japan is actually archipelago of volcanoes.

In the discussion at the House of Councillors, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe stressed that safety measures on Sendai Nuclear Power Plant in Kagoshima, owned by Kyushu Electric Power Company, which was assumed to be the first reactors resuming from current intermission of nuclear power generation in Japan. “The safety will be secured, because it has been inspected with assumption of far greater eruption than Ontakesan,” told Abe.

KEPC asserts that the possible biggest explosion will be ten thousand times stronger than Ontakesan eruption. Even in that eruption, pyroclastic flow will not reach Sendai plant and accumulation of volcanic ashes will be less than fifteen centimeters. KEPC argues that the plant will withstand against it. However, there is a possibility of further catastrophic eruption once in ninety thousand years. Although KEPC explained that it would not happen, because the last time was thirty thousand years ago, that is a sort of religious belief like revival of Jesus Christ.

Sendai plant is located on fifty kilometers away from a well-known active volcano, Sakurajima. It will be possible that fallen ashes cut off electric wire or cause malfunction of devices such as emergency power generation. But no one knows where the ashes go, because of its dependence on direction of the wind.

Prediction of activity of volcano is far difficult. Hydrogen explosion like in Ontakesan, which is not related to the activity of underground magma, is too small to predict through geologic study. It is true that number of scholar for volcanic study is too few, which amounts to eighty in all over Japan. The study depends on laboratories in national universities, the budget for which is as small as ¥100 million annually. Scholars require a national institution for experts on volcanic study.

Not only for Sendai, Tomari Plant of Hokkaido Electric Power Company, Hamaoka Plant of Chubu Electirc Power Company or some other reactors are also recognized as valuable for volcanic activities. The most important thing for electric company is to realize that there is no safe haven in Japan.