Failure in Taking Momentum

Turning down his willingness for improving bilateral relationship, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced that he gave up a plan to visit Beijing early next month. While various reasons were talked by people, diplomatic situation between Japan and China, after all, was not as good as those top leaders could have constructive conversation. Abe’s approach to China was proved to be insufficient.

China invited Abe to a ceremony commemorating victory against Japan in World War II, planned in Beijing on September 3^rd. Japanese government was making Abe’s schedule to attend the event after military parade in the morning would be finished. But, the scenario was dismissed for some reasons. “I will not attend the event hosted by China on September 3^rd. It was decided with consideration for schedule of the Diet,” told Abe in a committee in the House of Councillors on Monday.

It did not make any sense. It had been obvious that important schedule in the Diet existed in early September before Abe began to consider possibility of the visit. The most controversial issue, new security bills, has been settled when the House of Representatives passed them in July, enabling the leading parties reapprove them, if another House would not determine the attitude within sixty days.

It is possible that unofficial diplomatic session between the governments was not successful. In Japan, it has been reported that China showed restrained response against Abe’s statement on seventieth anniversary from the end of war. But, the statement was an apparent retreat from former statements, especially from Murayama Statement in 1995. China has been taking advantage of those statements as a diplomatic card against Japan for decades. It is unlikely for China to dismiss the card in a short period since Abe delivered the statement half a month ago. China might have expressed frustration with it through diplomatic channel.

Another element is United States. U.S. government has been requesting its allies to take careful approach to the event, which Republic of Korea seems to be ignoring, though. It is likely for Japanese government to have looked into U.S. face. U.S. has a concern on the victory ceremony including military parade that it may lead to an approval on violence of Chinese government on its nations, sometimes seen in an event like Tiananmen Incident.

Putting aside China’s power politics on its neighbor, Abe failed in getting momentum to improve the bilateral relationship that had been exacerbated by his own insistence on historical revisionism. Although he expect another opportunity for meeting with Xi Jinping or trilateral summit with China and ROK, difficulty in diplomatic situation has not change at all so far.