Invincible Party Leader

Presidential election of Liberal Democratic Party in September is now expected to be having no voting to any candidate. Current president, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, is too invincible for any potential candidates to challenge his presidency. It will be inevitable for a challenger to be politically isolated for a certain period of time, if he or she loses in the election. While old leaders concern that the party may lose its diversity, Abe’s unilateral governance of the party looks unshakable for coming years.

Minister for Vitalization of Local Economy, Shigeru Ishiba, on Friday indicated that he would not run for president of LDP this fall. “I will make every effort as a member of the Cabinet to let Abe administration promote policies with support of the people. I have no more word as a minister,” told Ishiba in his press conference.

Ishiba has been regarded as the most competitive candidate against Abe, because he defeated Abe in the general election of party members in the presidential election in 2012. But, after the defeat in the second ballot by the affiliated lawmakers, in which Abe reversed the election, Ishiba lost his political momentum in his term of Secretary General of LDP under Abe’s party presidency. When Abe shuffled his Cabinet last year, Ishiba failed to contend Abe, when he rejected an offer for Minister of Security Legislation. With no gut for rebellion against Abe’s leadership, Ishiba had to accept the second offer of Minister for Vitalization of Local Economy, containing himself in Abe Cabinet.

Former Chairman of General Council, Seiko Noda, keeps on criticizing political handling of Abe, selling herself as a possible candidate for the president. However, she has no viable basis for the presidency in the party. Most see that it is unlikely for her to risk her chance for the first female prime minister of Japan this time. Her political mentor, Makoto Koga, recommends her for the presidency, as he has found no candidate in his policy group, Kouchikai. But, the chairman of Kochikai, Minister for Foreign Affairs, Fumio Kishida, is supporting Abe to be reelected.

An organization led by specific personality of the leader can be declined due to losing diversity. LDP allowed a lawmaker with super-conservative opinion who reiterated inappropriate speeches without any investigation on his deeds, the handling of a problem that has invited broad criticism. It is a reflection of critical situation of losing control on party members. Strong leader cannot always be a good for an organization, when it is too homogenized.