Reactor on Active Rift

Nuclear Regulation Authority accepted a report from researchers on safety of Shika Nuclear Power Plant in Ishikawa Prefecture. The report indicated that a rift called S-1, located right under the first reactor of Shika plant, could cause landslide. Although the owner of the plant, Hokuriku Electric Power Company, has been denying activeness of the rift, NRA turned down the opinion and admitted negative effect on the operation of nuclear generation. Since the report is unreviewable, it is likely that the first reactor of Shika plant will be dismantled.

New regulation for nuclear power plant after severe accident in First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant requires every reactor not being built on an active rift that has a record of activity these 120,000 to 130,000 years. The report submitted to NRA recognized that S-1 rift moved within those years, based on the geological research before building the first reactor.

The report demanded Hokuriku Electric Power Company further data of analysis on mineral around there and boring survey at deeper layer. “It is apparent duty for Hokuriku Electric Power Company to tackle every issue with sincere eagerness. NRA will make final decision with submitted data on insufficient area,” told Chairman of NRA, Shun-ichi Tanaka. He also indicated that other rifts called S-2 and S-6, underground of the turbine building of the first reactor, might have caused transformation of ground surface these 120,000 to 130,000 years.

Hokuriku Electric Power Company firmly opposed to the report. “The report was made without enough opportunity to explain our viewpoints,” told the comment delivered from the company. In the survey for over two years, Hokuriku did not find any data that indicated activity of the rift. But, the report focused on the data obtained at the time before building the first reactor.

It seems hard for Hokuriku to change the conclusion of the report. But, the company is highly reluctant to dismantle the reactors, still seeking resumption of their operation. Since Shika plant is an only nuclear power plant for Hokuriku, it is going to pour a great amount of money for safety improvement.

The report concluded that the location of Shika plant was not suitable for nuclear power generation. The consecutive earthquake in Kumamoto proved that disaster could occur anywhere unpredictable. It is very costly to maintain a nuclear reactor built right on an active rift. Dismantlement is the most reasonable choice in terms of economic rationality.

Postponing Inflation Target Again

Bank of Japan decided to maintain its current monetary policy in its Monetary Policy Meeting on Thursday. Meanwhile, the bank postponed deadline for achieving 2% inflation target from the first half of FY 2017 to the end of FY 2017. Tokyo market, always hungry for surprising monetary policy, was immediately disappointed to the absence of additional monetary easing. Term of the Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, is expiring April 2018, right after the end of FY 2017.

This is the fourth time for BoJ to postpone the target, which had originally been two years later from introduction of different dimension monetary easing in April 2013. Although the bank had been attributed the delay of achievement to steep decline of oil price, it added downward pressure of growth rate and wage hike as the reasons. It meant that ailing Japanese economy made getting rid of deflation difficult. “We will closely watch how policy effects are penetrating,” Kuroda explained why he avoided additional measure for monetary easing in his press conference on Thursday.

Disappointed to the meeting with no expected result, Nikkei Average in Tokyo Stock Market dropped by ¥600 to the level below ¥17,000. Value of Japanese yen grew as high as ¥107 against U.S. dollar, which marked ¥4 of hike from the time before the announcement of BoJ. Because the market had been asking additional monetary easing from last week, it is fair to say that they got furious to BoJ.

Why did the bank avoid further monetary easing? “We can explore the negative rate policy much more,” said Kuroda. However, there is an argument in overseas that Japan has been involved in the competition for cheap currency. If Japan explicitly sought further monetary easing, it is possible that the Western leaders will accuse Japan in Group 7 Summit in Japan later next month.

Private banks in Japan are frustrated with negative rate policy, because it damages balance of their management. Asset investment or individual consumption has not grown by the policy, because there is a little demand for investment or consumption. Some economists suppose that the inflation target cannot be achieved even at the end of FY 2017.

Kuroda insisted that he would take every necessary measure for achieving the target. It is likely that BoJ will decide further monetary easing in next meeting in June. As long as BoJ obtains a significant amount of Japanese governmental bonds in the market, expansion of money flow must be limited even BoJ takes further measures. Credibility of Kuroda bazooka is declining.

Looming Total Impact

Two weeks have passed, since the first major earthquake with 7^th degree shook Kumamoto. During this period of time, over 1,000 quakes with 1^st degree or higher frightened the people there. 49 people died and 1 college student is still missing. Over 13,000 houses were collapsed and a lot of other houses are in jeopardy of breaking down. About 40,000 people are in evacuation losing their sweet home.

Kumamoto prefectural government calculated that it would need ¥36 billion for building 2,100 temporary houses and for renting other 2,100 empty rooms to the evacuees. According to the survey of Kumamoto government, evaluation of “red,” which meant unsuitable for living, amounted to 8,400 houses, exceeding the result of Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake in 1995.

Maintenance of asylum is another problem. A number of evacuees are spending days in public facilities, such as schools, gymnasium, or meeting rooms. Material aids, such as breads, clothes, diapers or roll papers, are arriving at those asylums. However, there are so few public coordinators to control those goods that disorder of distribution brings confusion among the evacuees. It may cause quarreling among them or even crime like theft. Help of non-profitable organization is on the way.

Consecutive quake is the most typical element of this disaster in Kumamoto. People do not like to live in their houses, because they do not know when the houses will collapse over them while having dinner or sleeping. Those people sleep day or night in their car parking beside the house. Staying in a narrow space makes them suffering from economy class syndrome. Earthquake-related deaths, which are the victims of collateral damages of consecutive earthquakes, amounted to 16 in these two weeks. In the case of East Japan Great Earthquake, over three thousands of people died in five years.

Transportation is resuming. Bullet train between Fukuoka and Kagoshima restarted on Wednesday, after repeated safety tests. Highway network will be working soon. Transportation of people and goods is expected to accelerate reconstruction efforts. In the Golden Week starting on Friday, a lot of voluntary helping hands are arriving in Kumamoto for clearing debris of the broken houses or nursery services for elderly people.

Economy in Kumamoto is still ailing. Foreign travelers to Kumamoto have decreased after the earthquake occurred. A lot of cancels annoy hotels and other sightseeing spots. Factories are damaged by the quakes. There are growing demands to national government for additional measures for the devastated area.

Two weeks have passed, since the first major earthquake with 7^th degree shook Kumamoto. During this period of time, over 1,000 quakes with 1^st degree or higher frightened the people there. 49 people died and 1 college student is still missing. Over 13,000 houses were collapsed and a lot of other houses are in jeopardy of breaking down. About 40,000 people are in evacuation losing their sweet home.

Kumamoto prefectural government calculated that it would need ¥36 billion for building 2,100 temporary houses and for renting other 2,100 empty rooms to the evacuees. According to the survey of Kumamoto government, evaluation of “red,” which meant unsuitable for living, amounted to 8,400 houses, exceeding the result of Hanshin-Awaji Great Earthquake in 1995.

Maintenance of asylum is another problem. A number of evacuees are spending days in public facilities, such as schools, gymnasium, or meeting rooms. Material aids, such as breads, clothes, diapers or roll papers, are arriving at those asylums. However, there are so few public coordinators to control those goods that disorder of distribution brings confusion among the evacuees. It may cause quarreling among them or even crime like theft. Help of non-profitable organization is on the way.

Consecutive quake is the most typical element of this disaster in Kumamoto. People do not like to live in their houses, because they do not know when the houses will collapse over them while having dinner or sleeping. Those people sleep day or night in their car parking beside the house. Staying in a narrow space makes them suffering from economy class syndrome. Earthquake-related deaths, which are the victims of collateral damages of consecutive earthquakes, amounted to 16 in these two weeks. In the case of East Japan Great Earthquake, over three thousands of people died in five years.

Transportation is resuming. Bullet train between Fukuoka and Kagoshima restarted on Wednesday, after repeated safety tests. Highway network will be working soon. Transportation of people and goods is expected to accelerate reconstruction efforts. In the Golden Week starting on Friday, a lot of voluntary helping hands are arriving in Kumamoto for clearing debris of the broken houses or nursery services for elderly people.

Economy in Kumamoto is still ailing. Foreign travelers to Kumamoto have decreased after the earthquake occurred. A lot of cancels annoy hotels and other sightseeing spots. Factories are damaged by the quakes. There are growing demands to national government for additional measures for the devastated area.

Japanese Companies in Panama Papers

Newspapers reported on Wednesday that hundreds of persons or corporations were listed on Panama Papers, which revealed a great number of cases taking advantage of tax haven. Although it was not illegal for an entrepreneur to establish corporation in tax haven, Japanese companies were using that underground community for promoting business in emerging economy such as China. They risked being suspected to have escaped from taxation.

Panama Papers are made by a Panamanian law firm that helps entrepreneurs establish new company. It includes 210,000 companies dealing with tax haven and 370,000 names of stockholders or board members of corporations in over 200 countries or regions. A German daily newspaper, Süddeutsche Zeitung, obtained the document and International Consortium of Investigative Journalists is analyzing its contents.

According to Asahi Shimbun, there were 400 of names whose address was in Japan. After detailed consideration, they included 20 Japanese companies and 230 Japanese citizens at least. Kyodo News counted 270 names in it. Those companies included major trade companies such as Itochu or Marubeni. Chief Executive Officer of Ueshima Coffee Co., Ltd was also on the list.

To the question of Asahi Shimbun, some stockholders answered that they established company in tax haven for escaping regulation in China or to conceal their identity as Japanese company from the eyes of the Chinese consumers. When a company wants to invest in China, it will have to establish a company in every region. Accounting standard and taxation system are different from those in Japan and it is difficult to retreat, because of complex labor system.

One man in furniture trading business bought a company in Virgin Islands with cost of ¥100,000. That was because his business client in China asked him opening a bank account in Hong Kong for money transfer. He searched in internet and found a firm that fixed up a paper company with an account of major bank. “ Because establishing a company in Hong Kong takes much money, I chose tax haven,” he said.

Political impact is not clear so far. In European countries, Panama Papers caused resignation of a prime minister or unpopularity of another prime minister who firmly supported remaining in European Union. If the papers include some name of political leaders in Shinzo Abe administration, instability of Japanese politics will affect a lot of important policies.

Apology on Discrimination

Supreme Court apologized on its decision to have “special court” in the cases leprosy patients were involved. While leprosy had been believed to be infectious in Japan, its infectiveness was proved to be extremely weak at least in 1960. Nevertheless, special courts kept on being held thereafter. This discrimination apparently harmed human dignity, which Constitution of Japan guaranteed to the people. But, Supreme Court did not admit its unconstitutionality.

There was a fundamental discrimination in Japanese society on leprosy patient, which showed unusual shape in the face or body. The government legislated Leprosy Prevention Act in 1931 without any scientific basis and the patients were quarantined in national sanatoriums. Special courts were set at those sanatoriums for 95 times between 1948 and 1972. In the special courts, judges took on white coat like medical doctors would do and treated documents with chopsticks.

Court Act allows judicial courts to have special court, if it were really needed. The final report of Supreme Court admitted that special courts in leprosy sanatorium was set as irrationally discriminative treatment and illegal. “We deeply regret our wrong treatment harming humanity and dignity of the patients and apologize to them,” said the report. It was highly unusual for Supreme Court to admit and apologize on its illegality of its treatment of law.

However, the final report did not touch unconstitutionality. Supreme Court disclosed the conclusion of a consultative committee of experts on this case, which found special court to have violated the Constitution of Japan. The report argued that special court was not completely closed to the public, not violating the requirement of open court, because announcement of setting special court was raised on the entrance of the sanatorium. On equality under law, the report avoided its decision. Supreme Court believed that investigation on unconstitutionality of each case might undermine independence of judges that Constitution also guaranteed.

The patients were frustrated with the attitude of Supreme Court. The legislative and executive branches of Japanese government has already admitted unconstitutionality of quarantine policy and apologized to the patients. “Supreme Court that should be the guard of constitution is too late in taking action, while the Diet or the government had admitted its mistake,” said a patient in Okayama.

It is possible that Supreme Court had to maintain its dignity as the guard of constitution. But, apology in half way may cause further skepticism on sincerity to the sovereign people.

Organized Campaign Wins

Traditional and organized campaign defeated unusual political coalition against current administration. A candidate raised by the leading coalition of Liberal Democratic Party and Komeito, Yoshiaki Wada, overtook an independent figure supported by Democratic Party, Japan Communist Party and other opposite parties, Maki Ikeda, with small margin in the supplemental election of Hokkaido 5^th District of House of Representatives on Sunday. Both sides are still analyzing what impact the election will have on coming election of House of Councillors.

Wada is son-in-law of late Nobutaka Machimura, former Speaker of House of Representatives and former Minister of Foreign Affairs. Wada campaign stressed that he was legitimate successor of Machimura to secure former supporters in the district. Based on his career as a businessman with Mitsubishi Corporation, Wada appealed economic policies he would promote with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. On security policy that had been controversial, Wada kept the line drawn by current leading coalition. That stance was positively accepted by voters, which contained a number of personnel in Ground Self-defense Force in the district.

Ikeda focused on welfare policy, on which frustration against Abe administration had publicly been expressed. Quoting her experience of being abused in her childhood or raising kid as a single mother, Ikeda emphasized necessity for welfare policies to save suffered families and narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. It was a campaign strategy of appealing to independent voters.

However, voters’ turnout in the district was lower than the previous election, which meant that independent voters were not so interested in the race. Unusual cooperation between Democratic Party and Communist Party did not work as much as it could defeat leading coalition. Independent candidate is legally limited in disseminating posters or flyers compared to official candidate of registered parties. Because DP and JCP did not like supporting an official candidate each other, they had to choose independent candidate.

That may affect campaign strategy for the election of House of Councillors. While JCP has been considering turning down their candidate and support DP as much as they can, it may move to raising its own candidate in some electoral districts. The result of Hokkaido 5^th proved that coalition of opposite parties could work well in the circumstance of strong wing against current administration was blowing.

Concerns on Freedom of Speech

The world is warning Japan on its situation of freedom of speech. An expert of United Nations found that independence of Japanese media was in jeopardy, based on his research. An international non-government organization ranked freedom of speech in Japan far lower than it had been for years. Deterioration in this one of the most important human rights is significant in Shinzo Abe administration.

U.N. Special Rapporteur on the Promotion of the Right to Freedom of Opinion and Expression, David Kaye, pointed out that there was serious concern for Japanese journalists to report sensitive issues, because of pressure from the government. “I think this is a significant problem that the Broadcast Act allows for regulation by the government of the media,” told Kaye in his press conference at Foreign Correspondent Club of Japan on Tuesday.

Minister of Internal Affairs and Communications, Sanae Takaichi, noted in February that the government could suspend license of TV stations, if their programming had been found to contain political bias. “The broadcaster shall comply with the matters provided for in the following items when editing the broadcast programs of domestic broadcasting or domestic and international broadcasting,” says Article 4 of the act and “It shall be politically fair,” says Section 2 of the article. Takaichi’s argument seemed to be based on that provision.

“My view is that Broadcast Act should be amended,” told Kaye and he suggested that Article 4 to be repealed. He determined that regulatory pressure of Japanese government became threat on broadcasting media. Designated Secrecy Act 2013 actually narrows access of journalists to governmental information. Kaye demanded Japanese government getting out of media-regulation business.

2016 World Press Freedom Index by Reporters Without Borders located Japan on the 76^th on its list. In 2010, under Yukio Hatoyama administration of Democratic Party of Japan, Japan was at 11^th among the world democracies. It declined to 22^nd in 2012, and after Abe took the seat, it slid down to 53^rd in 2013, 59^th in 2014 and 61^st last year. “The Japanese media, which are among the most powerful in the world, are free to cover what they want except ‘state secrets.’ This rather vague category is protected by a very harsh law that deters journalists from embarking on investigations,” criticized the NGO.

Washington Post ran an editorial titled “Squelching bad news in Japan,” in March. “The proudest of Japan’s post-World War II achievements was not its economic ‘miracle’ but the establishment of free institutions, including independent media. None of Mr. Abe’s goals for Japan, however worthy, can, or should, be pursued at their expense,” said the editorial board. As shown, warnings are coming from various international democratic institutions.

Obama to Hiroshima?

Kyodo News released a news from Washington, D.C., about possible visit of United States President Barack Obama to Hiroshima next month. It said that Obama was likely to visit Hiroshima, taking opportunity of Group 7 Summit Meeting in Japan late May. The article analyzed Obama’s motivation to be legacy making as U.S. President who received Nobel Peace Prize in 2009 with his appeal for the world without nuclear weapon. If U.S. public has changed enough to allow their President to visit Hiroshima, the Japanese are welcoming it. If Obama spare it, huge disappointment will be remained in Japanese public.

Kyodo said that it detected perspective of multiple highly ranked officials on U.S. government for President’s visit to Hiroshima. One of the officials told Kyodo that there was no opposition in Obama administration. The administration is expected to announce it next month.

The key for U.S. President’s visit to Hiroshima has been whether it would mean apology to Japan. Schools in U.S. has been teaching that dropping atomic bombs on Hiroshima and Nagasaki was necessary for avoiding further victims of the war. Most Americans still believe that atomic bomb was correct option. Obama has carefully been analyzing political impact of his visit to Hiroshima.

In Obama administration, it became normal for U.S. Ambassador to Japan, John Roos or Caroline Kennedy, to participate in the memorial ceremony in Hiroshima on August 6^th. Obama administration sent Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security Affairs, Rose Gottemoeller, to the ceremony last year. Secretary of State, John Kerry, visited Hiroshima and offered flower to the monument of victims this month, taking opportunity of G7 Foreign Ministers Meeting. Obama administration has been watching the response of the public.

However, there are negative elements against Obama’s Hiroshima visit. Firstly, Presidential election is ongoing now. Conservatives in Republican Party will accuse appeasing attitude of Democrats administration. Furthermore, visit to Hiroshima has no actual impact on the discussion over nuclear disarmament or non-proliferation regime. It is still not clear that Obama’s personal willingness of political legacy will be a good reason to visit Hiroshima.

Kyodo also quoted a comment of former staff in National Security Council, Michael Green, who was worried about sending wrong message to North Korea. According to Green, Obama’s soft attitude may cause skepticism on the deterrence under U.S. nuclear umbrella. He thought that conservative President would be more suitable for visiting Hiroshima.

More Negative on Simultaneous Election

Some news media reported that Prime Minister Shinzo Abe had decided not to have a simultaneous election of Houses of Councillors and Representatives this summer. In the midst of consecutive earthquake in Kumamoto, the leaders of leading party realize necessity of recovering effort for suffered people. Lawmakers think that it will not be appropriate to have recess for general election. Although Abe has been saying negative opinion on simultaneous election, he basically wants to have it for constitutional amendment. But, wind blows against him.

Nikkei Shimbun reported on Thursday that Abe abandoned the simultaneous election, because he would have to deal with the disaster in Kumamoto for a certain period of time. Around one hundred thousands of people are still in evacuation, fearing for earthquakes. It will be cruel for them to go voting, when they are concerned nothing but how to live through today. To secure comfortable life for the evacuees must be the first priority in the politics.

Economic recovery is another urgent job. Factories of manufacturers were severely damaged, causing stop of production lines in other places all over Japan. Transportation system has been paralyzed with broken roads and railroads. Japanese economy demands immediate reconstruction, which will require additional measures in national budget. Besides, Japanese economy has been unstable from the beginning of this year.

Everyone knows that simultaneous election is political maneuver of Abe to achieve two-thirds majority in each House to take initiative for constitutional amendment. It is obvious that the people are focusing on economy or reconstruction policy rather than Abe’s personal political agenda. If he decides simultaneous election against all odds, it is unavoidable for him to receive overwhelming criticisms from the public.

If Abe were determined to have consumption tax hike a year later as planned, simultaneous election before that negative element must be the best choice. But the leaders of Liberal Democratic Party recommend postponing of the tax hike not only for avoiding negative political effect, but also for economic reconstruction in Kumamoto. Komeito and its supporting body, Soka Gakkai, have been negative on simultaneous election.

Abe is still looking for a chance to have simultaneous election. The deadline for his decision should be set at the end of May, after hosting Group 7 Summit in Japan. It might be possible that the situation in Kumamoto will be better by then. But, the decision of not having election has to be made as soon as possible before public skepticism on Abe affects the election of House of Councillors that will be held anyway.

Manipulation on Fuel Efficiency

Mitsubishi Motors announced on Wednesday that it had been falsely manipulated the data on fuel efficiency of its light automobiles. Although the carmaker does not have to recall those cars, this scandal may give it fatal damage in terms of compliance of a manufacturer. In the competition over car technology, not only fuel efficiency but automatic cruising or other cutting-edge system, Mitsubishi is questioned on its ability to survive.

Mitsubishi Motors revealed that it fabricated the data of fuel efficiency to make it higher by 5 to 10% than the actual ability. In the test operated by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism, Mitsubishi submitted basic data manipulated in air resistance or friction of wheels. The ministry started inspection in Mitsubishi and ordered to report on details, based on Road Transport Vehicle Act.

Mitsubishi has already sold cars with wrong data between 2013 and now. Those cars include eK Wagon and eK Space of Mitsubishi, and Dayz and Dayz Roox supplied to Nissan Motors. Total amount of production of those four kinds of car will be 625,000. Mitsubishi and Nissan stopped their lines for those cars on Wednesday. “It is true that there was an intention to pretend our cars to be better,” told President of Mitsubishi, Tetsuro Aikawa.

The greatest damage on Mitsubishi is the fact that it could not find the manipulation by itself, but became aware with pointing from Nissan. When Nissan tested current cars for development of new model last November, it found significant gap between actual fuel efficiency and the data indicated in catalogue. Mitsubishi had been known as lagging behind in fuel efficiency, compared to top runners like Toyota or Honda.

Mitsubishi experienced a crucial scandal of concealing a number of claims from users early 2000s, which might lead to recall of 690,000 cars. As a result of leaving false cars, some passengers in Mitsubishi cars had accident of collision. Car sales of Mitsubishi declined significantly after the scandal and it had financially been supported by banks or other companies in Mitsubishi group. It is fair to say that consecutive scandals proved concealing nature of the company.

Stock price of Mitsubishi Motors immediately dropped in Tokyo market on Wednesday. Additional compensation for the users will be necessary. Japanese government has tax reduction system on ecological cars with high fuel efficiency. Mitsubishi might have to pay for that tax unpaid to local government. German government demanded Mitsubishi report on the details. The scandal will also affect its overseas sales.

Economy Class Syndrome

The evacuees in Kumamoto cannot stay in their house, which may be collapsed with consecutive earthquakes. A number of them spend time in their automobile in parking spaces. But, they have to sleep in narrow space inside the car, bending their knees, arms and body. That unusual life causes a disease called economy class syndrome, which disturbs circulatory system of human body. One woman died with the disease for the first time on Tuesday as the collateral damage of the earthquake.

Economy class syndrome was named after a symptom of airplane passengers who was forced to be in the same position in the economy class for a long time. When a human sits on the seat with same position for a long time, flow of blood in arms or legs slows down and blood clot is likely to be produced in the vein. If the clot goes into lung through blood circulation system, it will cause respiratory distress. It may lead to a fatal consequence.

A woman in Kumamoto city, age of 51, had been staying with her husband in her car parking beside her house after consecutive earthquakes started. When she got off the car on Monday, she fell down to the ground, hitting her head, and fainted away with snoring. After ambulance transported her to a hospital, her death was confirmed. She was diagnosed to be in economy class syndrome.

Mainichi Shimbun found that twenty-one people in the hospitals in Kumamoto city were diagnosed to be in economy class syndrome, some of which are in serious condition. Two out of ten patients of the syndrome got cardiopulmonary arrest in one of those hospitals after Sunday morning.

Why do they have to stay in cars? Local governments registered public facilities, such as schools, as asylum for the people who could not stay in their houses for some reason. But, people do not like to be with others in deteriorated privacy. Most of them want to take care of their houses, staying beside. It is warm enough in Kumamoto for spending nights in cars. But, the situation can damage the people who have chronic illness.

To avoid economy class syndrome, it is crucial to intake enough water. But, because of uneasiness in excretion, compared to men, women tend to refrain from having water. That is why most patient of the syndrome are women. It is necessary for local government to distribute more portable toilet or to hire as much medical personnel for taking care of the evacuees. But, the supply chain is still in disorder, caused by earthquakes looking unstoppable.

Economic Impact of Earthquake

The impact of consecutive earthquakes in Kumamoto on Japanese economy is growing to the unignorable level. Major carmakers partly stopped its operation, because of damaged supply chain for car parts. Stock market showed its weakness with possibility of long-term negative effect of the natural disaster. The earthquake revealed fundamental vulnerability of Japanese economy.

At the beginning of this week, stock prices in Tokyo market fell across the board on Monday. Not only affected by disagreement on increasing crude oil delivery by major oil-exporting countries, Nikkei Average declined by ¥572 from last weekend, marking ¥16,275, with concern on negative impacts of Kumamoto earthquake on activities of manufacturers. Although Nikkei showed some resilience this month, moving up closer to ¥17,000, the earthquake cooled down the mind of investors.

Toyota Motors Co. announced on Sunday that it would stop the operation in some factories in Japan, because it could not secure supply of car parts. Main factories in Aichi and minor ones in Iwate, Miyagi, Tokyo, Shizuoka, Mie, Gifu and Kyoto would eventually be stopped this week. That was because a factory of Aisin Seiki in Kumamoto city, which produced doors and engines, could not run and it had no perspective of resumption. Because Aisin Seiki had been supplied its car parts to other makers, a factory for light cars of Mitsubishi in Kurashiki city, Okayama, also had to stop the line.

Kumamoto has a number of factories for precision machinery, because it is rich in pure water that is crucial for the products. Renesas Electronics has a factory of semiconductor for cars in Kawajiri, Kumaoto. The operation there was temporary stopped after the earthquake, and its effort to resume has been disturbed by consecutive aftershocks.

Toyota predicts that its impact will rise up to 50,000 cars of decrease in production. An economist calculated that 50,000 of Toyota could be paralleled with 7% of all monthly car products of all makers and decrease industrial production index by 1%. As shown in Eastern Japan Great Earthquake, assembly line of carmakers can be stopped immediately, when supply chain of its parts was broken. In addition, Toyota has a policy that it will not have unnecessary stock of its own products.

Worrying about negative impact on politics, the lawmakers in Liberal Democratic Party is putting pressure not to raise consumption tax rate planned next year. The earthquake may cause acceleration of vicious circle of Japanese economy.

Unstoppable Quake

Kumamoto keeps on shaking. Forty-two people were killed by Monday morning and about two hundred thousand people evacuated their houses that were too vulnerable for consecutive quakes to stay comfortably. Active rift that caused these great quakes appeared on the ground surface. Japanese government asked United States Force help for searching missing people. Emergency is ongoing.

The greatest distinction of this Kumamoro earthquake from previous quakes is prolonged aftershocks. Twenty-six hours after the first major quake, there occurred the main earthquake around Kumamoto city with magnitude 7.3, which could be paralleled with Hanshin Great Earthquake in 1995. Over five hundreds earthquakes were detected in four and a half days.

People in Kumamoto are living in fear. They have to be careful about ceilings that can be falling down in any single quake. Most victims died not because of tsunami or broken nuclear reactor, but because of collapse of house or landslide. So, a number of people stay in their cars, evacuating their houses. In school buildings or public facilities, which are designated to be their shelter, people are hugging each other or embracing their children, whenever they felt an earthquake.

Those consecutive quakes come from active rift running close to Kumamoto, called Futagawa Rift Belt. After the main quake on Friday, there appeared an obvious crack on the rice pad in Mashiki, located in the suburb of Kumamoto city. Planted rice grasses were moved by the quake and apparent gap of rows is seen on the soil. According to the experts in Geospatial Information Authority, Futagawa Rift Belt made 3.5 meters of gap in the area of 27 kilometers of length and 12 kilometers of width.

Minister of Defense, Gen Nakatani, announced that Japanese government would accept the offer from United States to use MV-22 Osprey for rescuing operation and transportation of necessary goods. Although Osprey has been controversial aircraft deployed in Okinawa, Nakatani emphasized the high quality of Osprey in terms of aviation. Japanese government also decided to call up Reserve Self-defense Officials to help JSDF efforts. Shinzo Abe administration looks like relying on military power.

But, the evacuees are getting frustrated with delay of supply of water or sanitary items. Land transportation is out of order, making tracks difficult in approaching suffered area. There are other missing people under collapsed houses or crushed land. It is possible that the earthquake is going to affect Abe’s decision over having simultaneous election of both Houses in this summer.

New Mission in PKO

New security legislation enables Japanese Self-defense Force exercising various missions in peace-keeping operation of United Nations. However, needs of suffering nations are changing year by year. Not only intervention for neutrality or confidence-building, PKO troops are expected to protect citizens. It is still not clear that JSDF can fully undertake its responsibility in international community.

With new security legislation, JSDF in PKO became possible in using firearms with less regulation in case they are attacked. New missions include order maintenance activities such as patrolling, inspection or protecting citizens, voluntary guarding for other friend troops, and joint defense of PKO base under attack. Those missions are regarded as necessary for modern PKO, which requires not only ceasefire monitoring but active engagement to conflict for peace building.

One of the most dangerous operations among current sixteen PKOs is U.N. Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali. Rocket attacks on PKO base there killed three PKO members last November. Islamic extremist group delivered criminal announcement. While PKO has been neutral troops for intervening opposing powers, it becomes a concerned party, regarded as the enemy of Islam in Mali. To attract international sensation, Islamic extremists are targeting PKO troops much more than domestic enemy.

JSDF has been involved in U.N. Mission in the Republic of South Sudan. There is a demand of citizens to be protected from offensive South Sudanese government, caused by long-time civil war. Even the protection area of PKO cannot be safe. Enemies are sneaking over the fence. Two workers of Médecins Sans Frontières were killed while they were transporting injured PKO members. Everyone knows that it is South Sudanese government to protect Sudanese citizens. But, PKO troops have to protect them to defend themselves.

If JSDF has to use their weapons in PKO, operation of Japanese troops may significantly be changed. Constitution of Japan prohibits use of force in overseas. That was why the activity of JSDF in PKO had been limited to building roads or bridges after the conflict completely ended. New security legislation unleashes JSDF for further involvement in international conflict. Japanese troops can be the target of Islamic extremists, even if Japan keeps distance from American war on terrorism. South Sudan may be the stage for new Japanese military.

No Progress Reconfirmed

To improve bilateral relationship between two nations, Foreign Ministers of Japan and Russia had a meeting for the first time in these seven months on Friday. Although they reconfirmed continuing the negotiation for peace treaty, territory issue between those two nations showed no progress. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is going to visit Russia next month with no hope of settling long-time struggle over Northern Territory.

Basic purpose of Tokyo visit of Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov, was to pave the way for the summit meeting between Abe and Russian President, Vladimir Putin, in a resort city on the coast of Black Sea, Sochi, planned on May 6^th. While Abe has been hoping Russia to come back in the framework of developed countries, Group 8, the Western nations, especially United States, were negative in including Russia, which had forcibly annexed Crimea of Ukraine.

Japanese Minister of Foreign Affairs, Fumio Kishida, showed frustration on current actions of Russia to justify its standpoint that Kuril Islands were territory of Russia. Russia has been active in building new military facilityes on the islands. “We need to refrain from hurting national sentiment each other for maintaining calm environment of the negotiation,” told Kishida to Lavrov. Having said that, Kishida emphasized the achievement of the meeting that they had a positive discussion to give momentum for finding acceptable result for both nations.

It is unclear whether the meeting was so successful for the Russian side. “The approach of Russia that we need to reconfirm the result of World War II has not changed,” said Lavrov in the press conference. Russia has been requiring Japan to admit that Kuril Islands became the territory of Russia as a result of World War II and negative on the attitude of Japan demanding solution of the territory issue before peace treaty. While Russia abides by the Joint Declaration in 1956, which requires Russia to return the islands of Shikotan and Habomai after having peace treaty, no compromise can see on territory negotiation.

In the circumstance of higher stakes in security in Northeast Asia, it is unrealistic for both country to settle that complicated territory issue soon. Abe will at most be able to achieve keeping momentum of dialogue with Putin in this negative trend of international politics surrounding Japan-Russian relations. To indicate major progress in the summit meeting should be pretense to innocent citizens of Japan.

Kumamoto Earthquake

Land was abruptly shaken and people hardly kept on standing on the floor. Consecutive earthquakes with 7^th degree seismic intensity captured Kumamoto, located in the middle of Kyushu Island, Thursday night. Houses and roads were collapsed and the police confirmed 9 deaths by Friday morning. Experts analyzed that the quake occurred around a major rift underground. The Japanese realized again that they were living on the nest of earthquake.

A video footage of Kumamoto Broadcasting Station of NHK indicated strong quake in the office, where plate hanging on the ceiling was swinging and workers hid themselves under their desks. In the downtown of Kumamoto city, people in the pubs or restaurants evacuated the building and were watching their smart phones to update the information about the earthquake or to communicate with their families or friends.

A part of stonewall in Kumamoto Castle was collapsed, scattering blocks on the ground. Houses in Mashiki Town, in eastern suburb of Kumamoto, fell down. Some were left under the house and others evacuated to public spaces nearby. Fires occurred with some causes, gas for family appliance was leaked from broken pipelines, and blackout made midnight evacuation harder.

Transportation showed its vulnerability to earthquake. Kyushu Express Highway was closed, because a part of road was collapsed with landslide. Bullet trains stopped around Kumamoto area and no rehabilitation could see next morning. Airlines in Kumamoto Airport fell in disorder with difficulty of flight management. Car drivers around Kumamoto suffered from long traffic jam.

According to Kyushu Electric Power Company, no unusual incident was found in Sendai Nuclear Power Plant in Kagoshima Prefecture. Two reactors in the plant, which were only operating nuclear reactors in Japan, kept on its power generation through the night. Suspended reactors in Genkai Nuclear Power Plant in Saga Prefecture also had no unusual phenomenon with the earthquake. But, the people must have thought what was happening, if the quake had occurred around the plants.

There is a major rift called Futagawa-Hinagu Rift Belt underground of Kumamoto. The rift has some records of earthquake occurring relatively shallow in the underground. Compared to the magnitude of the earthquake itself, actual quake on the ground was greater than usual consequence. Consecutive aftershocks are frequent, precipitating the people to deep fear. The aftershocks are expected to continue for a week.

Proxy War of National Politics

Japanese politics focuses on an election for one seat in House of Representatives. The supplemental election in 5^th District of Hokkaido was announced on Tuesday. Two candidates struggle for a vacant seat, which was created by the decease of former Speaker of the House, Nobutaka Machimura. While the leading parties raised Machimura’s son-in-law, Yoshiaki Wada, the opposite parties established a joint support for a female candidate, Maki Ikeda. They are running head-to-head race to the voting day of April 24^th. The result will affect political strategy of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.

While Hokkaido 5^th District is located on the suburb of Sapporo city, the issues for the election are mostly national policies. Ikeda appeals her career as a nursery worker and require improved welfare policies. “I became to be involved in politics to establish comfortable welfare for everyone,” told Ikeda in her public speech. The opposite parties sharply criticize welfare policy of Abe administration as creating or widening gap between the rich and the poor. To attract public sentiment against Abe politics, she revealed her personal experience of domestic violence from her father, missing her husband or receiving livelihood protection.

Ikeda was a candidate of Democratic Party in former election. Japan Communist Party joined her candidacy turning down its card. The greatest reason is halting further advance of Abe administration, mainly in security policy. Civil activists support this DP-JCP cooperation in the campaign. “Abe’s version of positive pacifism is wrong concept, which generates cause for waging war,” appealed former Mayor of Sapporo, Fumio Ueda, in his supportive speech for Ikeda.

Wada on the other side appeals conservative policies to keep supporters for his father-in-law. “I’d like to repay for you who preserved determined conservatism with my father,” said Wada. Abe send Wada a message that described the election as an important choice between the leading coalition with responsibility for the people and DP-JCP cooperation only with criticism.

The election is literally a confidence vote on Abe administration. Wada keeps on appealing achievement of Abenomics, which is showing declining trend anyway. Ikeda demands warmer welfare policies for the elder, women or kids, frustrated with economy-oriented mind of current administration.

Abe will make up his mind whether he will have simultaneous election in this summer after this election. The result in Hokkaido 5^th can determine the direction of Japanese politics.