Deterring China with Africa

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, co-chairing with President of Kenya and Chairman of African Union, presided 6^th Tokyo International Conference on African Development in Nairobi for the first time in Africa. While TICAD had been focused on economic development in Africa, Nairobi Declaration resolved in the conference became a diplomatic card of Japan against maritime advance of China in Pacific Ocean. It is important for African countries whether supporting Japan against China will be profitable for them.

Nairobi Declaration consists of three pillars for African development: promoting structural economic transformation through economic diversification and industrialization, promoting resilient health systems for quality of life, and promoting social stability for shared prosperity. For economic transformation, the declaration requires accelerating growth of industries including agriculture, livestock, manufacturing or tourism. It also indicated necessity of addressing various health issues including Ebola, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis or malaria.

On social stability, stressing condemnation of terrorism and necessity of addressing global challenges including climate change or food insecurity, the declaration added a paragraph for maritime security. “We stress the importance of promoting regional and international efforts related to maritime security, including piracy, illegal fishing and other maritime crimes, maintaining a rules-based maritime order in accordance with the principles of international law as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,” describes the declaration. The expression apparently implies protest against China’s maritime advance in South China Sea, which was denied by Hague Court of Arbitration as violating UNCLOS.

Abe devoted himself to get political supports from African nations. In the keynote speech at the opening of the conference, Abe pledged $30 dollars of investment to Africa for next three years. On the other hand, he appealed values of freedom, rule of law and market economy that would be free from force of coercion. “When you cross the seas of Asia and the Indian Ocean and come to Nairobi, you then understand very well that what connects Asia and Africa is the sea lanes,” told Abe. It was Abe who connected China’s advance in Asia and development of Africa.

It is still unclear whether that stick-and-carrot strategy works. Although it has been coercive, China’s investment in Africa overtakes Japan’s in terms of amounts. It is actually necessary to attract African nations for Japan. But, single or isolated leadership in development may be vulnerable in the competition against a greater economy.