Changing to Bilateral Deal

Suffering from unilateral withdrawal of United States from comprehensive free trade deal called Trans-Pacific Partnership, Shinzo Abe administration began to consider bilateral trade deal with U.S. Wait a minute. TPP is practically a bilateral deal between Japan and U.S., based on deliberate negotiation by both governmental officials. It is U.S. to be blamed on its selfish discard of an official agreement between the states. Abe has to tell U.S. President Donald Trump to implement what sovereign nations once agreed on.

In the discussion at Committee on Budget in House of Representatives on Thursday, Abe revealed his willingness to make a bilateral trade deal with U.S. “We will also negotiate on bilateral deal. Economic Partnership Agreement or Free Trade Agreement is not impossible,” said Abe, keeping an idea of persuading Trump to come back to TPP in next meeting. Abe also stressed that he would protect agricultural interest in the bilateral deal as Japanese government tried to do in TPP.

Abe hopes to have a meeting with Trump as soon as February 10^th. In that meeting, trade deal and maintenance of Japan-U.S. alliance will be the main issues for both leaders. It is predictable that Trump will demand bilateral deal with Japan, based on a notion that TPP is not a fair trade deal in terms of car trade with Japan. Carmakers in U.S. accuse Japan that it manipulates rate of foreign exchange to encourage car exports.

However, TPP is not basically acceptable for Japanese farmers as U.S. carmakers are. Both governments reached a notion that the deal would be valuable for their economy even with a part of sacrifice. Trump is trying to break up the achievement and establish another deal which will be profitable only for U.S. That can allow any government in the world to discard treaty with any domestic inconvenience. Iran can discard nuclear deal. China can leave international framework on climate change. Then, is U.S. going to walk out of United Nations?

So, how can the bilateral deal make difference from TPP? One may imagine that another Wendy Cutler, former Deputy U.S. Trade Representative, and another Hiroshi Oe, former Deputy Chief TPP Negotiator, accumulate their meeting for tariff on cars, beef, rice or butter. Another U.S. Trade Representative and another Japanese Minister will sign the new deal, which will not necessarily be preferable only for U.S. During the prolonged negotiation between Japan and U.S., China is likely to make further economic advance in Asia-Pacific region, posing their own rule to the nations. One of the officers in Japanese government expects TPP to be activated after Trump leaves White House.