Twenty Years of Failure on North Korea

United States Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson, announced new U.S. foreign policy toward Northeast Asia in Tokyo on Thursday. In the meeting with Japanese Minister for Foreign Affairs, Fumio Kishida, Tillerson evaluated U.S. policy on North Korea to be twenty years of failure. It was unequivocal change from strategic patience, which Barack Obama administration maintained.

Tillerson made his first visit to Japan as Secretary of State on Wednesday and had meetings with Kishida and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. In those meetings, Tillerson reconfirmed necessity of U.S. deterrence against Democratic People’s Republic of Korea repeating nuclear tests and missile launches, and of dealing with the issue in the trilateral framework including South Korea.

It was a joint press conference with Kishida when Tillerson made clear of the shift of U.S. foreign policy. “I think it’s important to recognize that the political and diplomatic efforts of the past twenty years to bring North Korea to the point of denuclearization have failed,” told Tillerson, requiring a different approach in the face of “ever-escalating threat.” “I told him my idea and we coordinated our policies. Japan and United States will form an integrated standpoint,” said Kishida.

North Korea has been accumulating improvements in these twenty years. Primitive technology for launching missiles has been updated to the extent of carrying ballistic missiles to Japan’s economic exclusive zone with mobile launcher. North Korea unequivocally announced that it was a drill of striking U.S. Force in Japan. It is estimated that D.P.R.K. is going to reach a level of having capability to strike mainland of U.S. with intercontinental ballistic missile within five to ten years.

Tillerson explained Abe that all the options against North Korea were on the table, which meant that U.S. would not rule out military option. Former Prime Minister Jun-ichiro Koizumi tried to persuade President George W. Bush not to take military option on North Korea. But, it is unclear whether Abe will take the same stance. While military collision in Korean Peninsula is a nightmare for Japan, Abe administration has been selling his policy of constitutional amendment with logic of necessary evacuation of the Japanese from the peninsula.

Tillerson also opposed any unilateral activities to weaken Japan’s administration on Senkaku Islands. It is regarded that Donald Trump administration accuses Obama as failed in stopping China’s advance in South China Sea in Operation Freedom of Navigation. While Japan expects U.S. presence in the region to contain China, however, Trump is trying to have deals in bilateral economic interdependence between U.S. and China.