How to Deal with Unpredictable Terrorism

The Japanese had long been distant from terrorism in Islamic world. “Terrorism is scary, ‘cause it is unpredictable,” stated former PM Junichiro Koizumi right after September 11 attacks occurred in 2001. That showed the innocence of a Japanese leader on terrorism. Even if it is unpredictable, he needed to learn about terrorism. The response of the government of Japan to the terrorists’ assault on a petroleum plant in eastern Algeria revealed that it learned few from the experience of Koizumi.

“We confirmed that terrorism is never be tolerated,” told PM Shinzo Abe in press conference right after the meeting with Indonesian President S. B. Yudhoyono in Jakarta on Friday. He cancelled some events in Indonesia and flew back to Tokyo to conduct the hostage crisis. Concerning that terrorists’ attack was hard to predict, perhaps harder than prediction of earthquake, Abe’s management would not be criticized so much.

The problem, howcver, was scarcity of information. On Thursday, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Tokyo could not get accurate information about Japanese hostages and victims. Sources they mainly relied on were wire services such as Reuters or Al Jazeera. They sent a Parliamentary Vice-Minister to Algiers, only resulting in getting nothing from In Amenas city where hostages were, because it was too far from the capital.

The crucial fact we knew was that the government of Japan was not informed of the military operation for liberating hostages by Algerian forces before it started. Although Abe announced the necessity of importance of hostages’ lives, his request was ignored by the government of Algeria, which was actually in a fight with terrorism. Japan has no grip on this incident so far.

If we cannot stop terrorism, we at least need to learn more about terrorism. Louise Richardson defines terrorism as “deliberately and violently targeting civilians for political purposes.” She lists seven characteristics of terrorism; 1) politically inspired, 2) involving violence, 3) sending message, 4) having symbolic significance in act and victim, 5) act of groups, not states, 6) difference between the victim and the audience, and 7) deliberate targeting of civilians.

Among those seven points, Japan has to focus on 4). We should think about what was the symbolic significance for terrorists of taking Japanese businessmen hostage. This act of terrorism obviously means that terrorists recognize the Japanese as one of the targets. It is not clear when Japan became a target. When it sent its troops to reconstruct southern part of Iraq in 2003, no personnel was killed or injured by local terrorists. In Japan, it was recognized as a kind of soft power, which Japan had obtained in long-time cooperation with the Iraqis. One specialist in Middle East study told that the Iraqis believe in Japan, because it exported good reliable products including cars, TVs or refrigerators. Those goods proved Japan’s resilience from disaster of World War II, which was respectable for the Iraqis. It is possible that terrorists regard the Japanese as enemy while Japan has been standing by US in the war on terrorism.

Now we are seeing terrorists hostile toward Japan. Japan needs not only to denounce act of terrorism, but to reduce hostility of terrorists against Japan.