Between Mutual Compromises

Making a contrast with China, Russia seems to be positive to solve the problem around the border with Japan. President Vladimir Putin mentioned that the dispute over the Northern Territory should be solved in a form of “hikiwake,” or draw game, using his favorite judo term. It is unlikely in judo that a player offers hikiwake before a match. Behind his attitude, one can see the situation of Russian presidency, which is in need of actually playing a game. His opposite, however, looks like not prepared for the game.

Putin’s words came up in March of last year, when it was few days before he was reelected to the Russian President. In its basis, there is a situation that Russian government needed to improve the relationship with Japan. Firstly, suffered from the accident in a nuclear power plant, Japan is a big market for natural gas produced in Russia. Shale gas currently developed in North America is a threat to Russian natural gas. Russia seems to be hasted in obtaining an advantage in Japan. Secondly, Russia needs Japanese technology for adding value to their gas. Thirdly, from the perspective of geopolitics, Russia needs to maintain a good relationship with China. Putin may think that solving the territorial dispute with Japan helps stabilize Northeast Asian security environment. Lastly, he also has to stabilize internal politics for his presidency by improving the relationship with a neighbor country.

But the biggest question is what hikiwake exactly means. The basic attitude of Russia toward this issue is that returning two smaller islands, Shikotan and Habomai, to Japan should be done after two countries conclude in peace treaty, along with the line of the Joint Declaration between Japan and Russia in 1956. But in 1992, Russia made a compromise that it can return those two islands before concluding the peace treaty, and maintain negotiation over the rest of two islands, Kunashiri and Etorofu. Japan then dismissed that proposal from Russia.

It still is unlikely that Russia would accept Japan’s argument, which is to make the peace treaty with the returning of two small islands and confirm the sovereignty of the two bigger islands. But hikiwake should be located in between those two standpoints of Japan and Russia. Former Japanese diplomat, Kazuhiko Togo, pointed in his article to Mainichi Shimbun newspaper that it was no longer available for Japan to reconfirm the sovereignty of all four islands, because it meant a total defeat of Russia against Japan, a declining economic power. The compromise for Japan would be abandoning four-island-in-one-time solution.

Meanwhile, Russia needs to abandon two-island-return-before-peace-treaty solution. So, it is likely that the solution could be found around a possible proposal; making peace treaty with returning two small islands, and continue talking about the rest of two islands. Then, the explanation on sovereignty would be the biggest matter on it.