Isolation in Nuclear Policy

Isolation in Nuclear Policy

Among nine parties that join the campaign for the election of the House of Councillors in late July, the Liberal Democratic Party would be marked as the first party which gave up the national goal of eliminating nuclear power plant in Japan. In the open discussion by secretary generals of the nine, LDP Secretary General, Shigeru Ishiba, answered “no” to the question asking whether the party would seek zero option, while all the rest answered “yes.” It would be a bold decision for the leading party of a country that still suffers from still unmeasurable disaster of radioactive contamination leaving over three hundred thousand of displaced people.

The Progressive Energy Strategy decided by the government of Japan last September determined that it would adopt every possible policy resource to enable no dependence on nuclear power plant in Japan by 2030s. Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, revealed his intention as soon as he became PM that he would review the policy of nuclear zero. The reason for him was that “a hope” should not immediately be a policy for a responsible party. Although Abe’s response was just a negative approach to zero, Ishiba, in the discussion between secretary generals, showed a clear “no.”

Other parties made concerted responses to LDP’s attitude. Goshi Hosono with Democratic Party of Japan told that it was strange for Prime Minister to promote nuclear power plant holding the problem of the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant. Kenji Eda with Your Party argued that nuclear policy of the government was wrong, because it did not include the cost for dismantling facility. Tadatomo Yoshida with the Social Democratic introduced the fact that Japan had been able to go through without nuclear power last hot summer. Even the coalition partner of LDP, New Komeito, was keeping its option of nuclear zero.

It is a great contradiction for LDP to uphold nuclear promotion, which includes resumption of halted plants, importing MOX fuels from France to continue the project for nuclear fuel recycle and exporting nuclear reactors, while it appeals the reconstruction policy for Fukushima. People in Fukushima in fact want no nuclear plant not only in their place, but in Japan. They want more involvement of the government in stabilizing the reactors in First Fukushima, if it has any resource for continuing nuclear policy.

For LDP, promoting nuclear policy is international promise. But, it is just reflection of a part of interests represented by nuclear community in the United States. The world needs to know that while Japanese government encourages nuclear business in Japan, new businesses for alternative energies are discouraged.

Assertion without Evidence

As a cheap shot obvious for everyone, Prime Minister of Japan embarked on a blaming game with China. Shinzo Abe appealed to the audience of a discussion over election policies that China had set a condition to have a bilateral summit talk. The condition, Abe insisted, was some compromise on Senkaku. It was unusual that the top leader revealed actual process of underground deals in diplomacy. Nobody, except Chinese officials may be, could prove that Abe had been true. The lesson here is that even how a prime minister regrets his inability in diplomacy, it is unnecessary to get lost in maze without exit.

In an open discussion by eight party leaders on internet, Abe revealed that China had been rejecting the summit talk unless Japan accept some compromise on the Senkaku issue, indicating that China wanted to shelve the issue in the meeting. “We keep on saying that it is wrong. It is wrong for us to erode our national interest in trying to have a meeting with China anyhow,” told Abe.

Against his political resolution at the beginning of his second term as prime minister that he would rebuild strategic mutual favored relationship with China, he still cannot have any chance to talk with new Chinese President, Xi Jinping. It is highly unusual that a Chinese leader would never meet with Japanese Prime Minister, while he has been actively meeting with leaders of United States, Russia, India, European Countries and even South Korea.

It was not wrong for Abe to show his attitude of standing still without any compromise on Japan’s own territory. However, it was inappropriate to make an assertion in a way nobody could prove his sincerity. He did not make clear who brought that information about Chinese intention and how he had came to know it. Abe sent one of his advisors, Shotaro Yachi to China this month. But, Yachi brought no news, indicating the visit was fruitless.

Without any progress in relationship with China, Some kind of private diplomacy of veterans has been reported. Former Chief Cabinet Secretary, Hiromu Nonaka, met with a high official of Chinese government, reconfirming that there had been a mutual understanding of shelving Senkaku issue between Japan and China. With nobody’s request in Japan, former premier Yukio Hatoyama visited China and told his understanding that Senkaku should be returned to China.

All those actions were made with frustrations of them against Abe’s inability in diplomacy. Even how Abe blames Chinese attitude, those frustrations will not be diminished until he has a meeting.

Watching with Jealousy

The negative outcome was that Japan had been ignored in the conversation. The positive one was security in Northeast Asia could be achieved without Japan. The President of China, Xi Jinping, and the President of South Korea, Park Geun-hye, met in Beijing on Thursday, for the first time after each new leader had assumed the presidency. Although they made a major step to tackle the North Korea issue in cooperative way, Japan still worried about the approach of its neighbors.

The two leaders agreed on denying the possession of nuclear technology by North Korea and on seeking a solution through dialogue and negotiation. “We oppose any action of destroying regional peace and stability by anyone. Our two major hope in Korean Peninsula, one of which is denuclearization and another is peaceful integration,” told Xi to Park. In the joint statement, both leaders promised to enhance strategic partnership, and agreed on high-level diplomatic and security dialogue between their leaders’ office.

It is no wonder that those two leaders approached each other. China has been wanted some investment in Chinese economy from South Korea to encourage domestic economy, which was going to be slowing down. They seemed to have talked about a deal of building a big factory of Samsung in Xi-an city. South Korea has been seeking leverage on deterring the North’s intimidation. So, accelerating the effort for free trade agreement between China and South Korea and expectation to early resumption of six party talk on the North’s nuclear and missile issues were actual achievements for both.

It is one of the best agenda for them to talk about Japan, sharing the same interest in interpretation of history. Without finger-pointing, they criticized Japan acknowledging that opposition and discredit over history existed among the nations in the region. In the joint statement, they also shared a concern of instability of the relationships among regional nations. Park reportedly asked Xi to build a statue of a Korean man who assassinated Hirofumi Ito, the Prime Minister of Japan who ruled Korea, in the city he died.

Japan is looking the meeting with jealousy. Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has no hope to meet any one of them soon, having trouble in Senkaku with China and in Takeshima with South Korea. Next opportunity for some possible progress will be the foreign minister meeting of ASEAN in Brunei. Although the minister level meeting can be expected with South Korea, the chance with meeting with Chinese minister should be standing chatting at best.

Illegal-minded Leader

The House of Councillors, with majority of the opposite parties, on Tuesday passed a resolution to question the responsibility of Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe. The reason was that he, with his cabinet members, was absent in the Committee of Budget, violating the Constitution of Japan. The significance of the resolution was that one of two highest organs of state power denied the credibility of the leader of the executive branch. In the context of the Constitution, cabinet is responsible to the Diet. So, Prime Minister Abe has theologically lost one half of its legitimacy. Media, however, criticizes more about opposite parties than Abe.

The process before the resolution was complicated. Chaired by a lawmaker with Democratic Party of Japan, the Committee set a meeting for discussing Abe’s handlings of politics on Monday and Tuesday. The cabinet members, however, refused to attend it, because a non-confidence resolution against the Chairman of the House of Councillors, Kenji Hirata, had been submitted and had yet voted on it. Cabinet spokesman, Yoshihide Suga, appealed that although the request for ministers’ attendance should have been done through the Chairman, he was under the question and the request had been invalid.

DPJ insisted that regardless the situation of the Chairman, cabinet members could not refuse the request of attendance. Article 63 of the Constitution requires cabinet members to attend a session of the Diet whenever requested. The meeting of the Committee spent time without any discussion with the absence of all cabinet ministers.

DPJ at first was reluctant to support the resolution asking PM’s responsibility, because it would emphasize its negative attitude to national politics. But, after other opposite parties had submitted the resolution, DPJ decided to join it to show its negative standpoint against PM Abe, rather than being looked as supportive for the administration. Affected by collision between both sides of the aisle, some important bills, including electric power distribution system reform or supporting low-income families, were not passed.

It is obvious all parties were responsible for the trouble at the end of the session. But, what made matters worse was Abe’s neglectful attitude on abiding by the Constitution. While welcoming the discussion over the amendment, Abe is actually accumulating the facts to mutilate the Constitution. Against the Article 99 on the obligation of public officials to respect and uphold the Constitution, Abe officially stated in the Diet that he would seek changing the provisions of the Constitution. He seems to have forgotten his standpoint endorsed by current constitution. It is no good for democracy of Japan to let this illegal-minded leader gain more power after the election next month.

Inner Quarrels Revealed

This naïve leader cannot withstand a small itchiness on his soft point. Frustrated with the criticism of a former diplomat on the handling of Japan-North Korea relationship, Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, cried out for denouncing him. As known as a hardliner against the North, Abe must have thought that he needed to save his face. However, it is not what a leader of a nation would do to openly get into a squabble with his former staff, showing the world troubles inside the government of Japan.

The starting point was an interview article of Mainichi Shimbun to former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hitoshi Tanaka, who made the underground negotiation with the officials of North Korea for the summit talk between Jun-ichiro Koizumi and Kim Jong-il in 2002. In the interview, Tanaka indicated that Abe’s attitude shown in the willingness to review Murayama Statement, that acknowledged the aggression and colonization of Japan to Asian nations in the World War II, made foreign countries regard Japan as right-leaning and give them a reason to be offensive to Japan.

Abe made his counteraction not directly to Tanaka, but through Facebook. “He made a critical mistake as a diplomat. He is not worthy to tell about diplomacy,” wrote him, with a story that Tanaka appealed to let abductees back to North Korea, when they made a temporary visit to Japan after the summit talk between Koizumi and Kim, and the government of Japan decided not to let them back. In short, excited with the argument raised by Tanaka, Abe revealed the inner struggle on the dealing with returned abductees. The problem here is that the prime minister is using social network service in a way as an ordinary people are using as an outlet of daily frustration. Abe’s colleagues in his party even sneer his excessiveness.

In a conference later, Tanaka explained the conversation within the government then. “I said that it might take a long time to return the children to Japan,” he said. He defended himself saying that he had shown an analysis that if returned abductees had chosen to stay Japan permanently, the North Korea would retaliate Japan with delaying the return of the abductees’ kids. On “unworthy” comment of Abe, Tanaka said that he did not believe a prime minister to violate freedom of speech.

It obviously is unusual for a prime minister to get excited with a diplomat’s comment on one issue. That showed how Abe was serious about abductees issue and relationship with North Korea. But, he has always been making wrong choices on North Korea issue. While the parties were considering about the attitude toward the North, Abe unilaterally decided further sanction against it. When they were tightening the sanction, Abe sent an unofficial envoy to the North. This narrow-minded diplomacy will last during his term.

Nuclear Option Was Invoked

Gerrymandering is one of the most popular manipulations to take advantage of election system for a party’s benefit. In Japan, the problem over its election system is doing nothing for a necessary reform. The National Diet passed a law to make a minor change in election system of the House of Representatives. For that process, the leading parties, Liberal Democratic and New Komeito, used “nuclear option,” a constitutional exception that two-third majority of the Lower House could turn over the dismissal of the House of Councillors. The Diet consequently revealed its inability.

The law passed on Monday was to reduce the total of electoral seats from 300 to 295, maintaining 180 seats of proportional representation. The purpose of the reform was to contain the difference of one-vote value within double. In the election of 2009, the district 4 of Chiba held 2.30 times more electoral voters than the district 3 in Kochi for one seat. Two years ago, the Supreme Court required that the difference should be within two times at large. The reform law reduced the margin to 1.998 between the smallest and the largest.

The leading parties passed the bill with absolute majority in the House of Representatives in April. But, opposite Democratic Party of Japan blocked it in the House of Councillors, with the reasoning that the reduction was insufficient to adjust the unconstitutional situation. The Constitution of Japan allows the House of Representative re-approving a bill once passed in the House, when the House of Coucillors made no decision on it after 60 days it received the bill. The leading parties applied this provision to the election reform bill, as the third time under current constitution.

Behind the struggle over the bill, the option of further reduction of seats was put aside. DPJ asserted that the seats for proportional representation should be reduced from 180 to 100, in order to show moral responsibility of politicians. LDP could not agree on it, with consideration of its negative impact on its coalition partner, Komeito. Although there were discussions on fundamental change of the election system of the House, it had no achievement in the collisions of the interests of parties.

The focus now is how the Supreme Court assesses the result in this fall. If it still finds unconstitutionality of the margin of one-vote value, and even decides last election invalid, some lawmakers will lose its legitimacy and be discharged. Such a turmoil in politics may happen as a consequence of political irresponsibility.

Positive Response to Abenoics

The Liberal Democratic Party, based on the partnership with New Komeito, achieved a landslide victory in the election of Tokyo Metropolitan Assembly on Sunday. It reflected the positive recognition of voters for LDP’s bold economic policy called Abenomics. Opposite parties lagged far behind. This sweeping victory of the leading parties in national politics might indicate the trend of the election of the House of Councillors next month.

Out of 127 seats, LDP occupied 59. With 23 seats for Komeito, LDP secured a stable majority in the assembly. The Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposite party in national parliament, reduced its seats to 15, equivalent to about one third of former number. The party which worked for an alternative to DPJ was Communist Party, with 17 seats, and Your Party, with 7. Japan Restoration Party could take only 2 seats, as a reflection of the embarrassing gaffe on comfort women by co-leader, Toru Hashimoto.

Away from rural frustration over free-trade policies, Tokyo is the place where the consequence of Abenomics appears early. Followed by optimistic psychology over future economy, houses and cars obviously sell more than last year. Restaurants are clouded with businessmen and housewives. Most voters for LDP were someone who believed this situation was created by PM Abe’s economic policy.

There are definitely voters against Abenomics. They are divided in four, which are the Communists, Your Party, DPJ and Restoration Party. In the last election four years ago, DPJ accepted a great amount of anti-LDP votes, lifting them to the top. This time, the promotion of the Communists was eyebrow raising. In the campaign, they appealed policies opposite to LDP’s, including anti-Abenomics with relevant distribution of wealth, anti-nuclear power generations and protection of current constitution. Your Party also distinguished itself from LDP by upholding postponement of raising consumption tax rate in next April. DPJ failed in making crystal clear difference from LDP.

This tendency may be brought to the Upper House election next month. Although it is likely for LDP-Komeito coalition to take simple majority, the problem is there is no stable counter choice for LDP administration. DPJ needs to recognize the reason why they suffered this great defeat not as the similarity of policies to LDP, but voters’ abhorrence to DPJ. When they see the face of former leaders of DPJ, they reminds of dark memories of trouble with US over the relocation of Futenma in Okinawa, selfish handling of the government in the great earthquake, and broken promise of maintaining the rate of consumption tax. If DPJ cannot show the change, LDP rule may last long.

Okinawa Memorial Day

It is the Okinawa Memorial Day today. Sixty-eight years ago, the organizational resistance of Japan Imperial Army and Navy against the United Nations Force ended, leaving over two hundred thousand of victims dead. During three months of battle over the island, one out of four Okinawans were dead. Since it is marked as the only ground battle in Japan, Okinawa was acknowledged as a “sacrificed stone” in the history. It is important for policy makers of Japan and the United States to understand this complicated feeling of Okinawa against the government of Japan.

The Battle of Okinawa started late March in 1945, one month after the defeat in Iwojima. As shown in Iwojima, Japan Imperial Force adopted a strategy of taking on long battle in Okinawa to delay United Nations’ aggression to the mainland of Japan. Just as a slow hurricane leaves great damage on the land, the Battle of Okinawa, dubbed Typhoon of Steel on the island, caught a great deal of non-military citizens in the fight.

The main reason that Okinawa has been keeping a strong resentment against the government of Japan was not only the battle itself, but the evil behaviors of the Japanese Imperial Army. Given the order of extending the battle from Tokyo headquarters, military leaders forced the residents in Okinawa to fight at the end, or kill themselves, to avoid being caught by the United Nations. Soldiers sometimes killed a number of citizens, or forced families to kill each other.

It is fair to say that the battle was the starting point of current distrust of Okinawa against Japan. Even after the surrender of Imperial Army, Okinawa had been acknowledged as an important outpost of the security in North East Asia. The government of Japan accepted the deal of leaving Okinawa under the administration of the United States, when Japan and the United Nations signed the San Francisco Peace Treaty in 1951. As many know, the violence of US soldiers and accidents of US force continued after the administration was returned back to Japan in 1972, getting citizens in Okinawa frightened every day.

At the ceremony of the memorial day, the Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, made a speech that recognized the burden of US Forces in Okinawa, and promised to do his best for reducing the burden. His policy, however, has been obviously or intensively against Okinawa. Celebrating the Sovereignty Restoration’s Day on April 28th, the day which had been called the Day of Humiliation in Okinawa, was severely criticized by the Okinawans. Having no leverage to US in negotiating Futenma issue, it is unlikely for Abe to make a substantial deal with Okinawa.

To Prevent Students Suicide

The Diet of Japan passed a law, which was aimed at reducing suicide of students on Friday. It has been a serious problem for Japanese society to protect kids from suicide caused by physical or psychological aggression of their classmates. In Japan, that exercise was so invisible and systematic that some recognize it as committing of a crime. That was why they needed new law. The measures addressed in the law, however, look to be insufficient unless the society itself would fundamentally be changed.

It is not easy to translate those exercises, ijime in Japanese, to English. It of course includes bullying, but bullying is mainly refers to physical attack or threat to a victim. In schools in Japan, it is exercised in a manner of mean activities from multiple classmates to single student. The victim becomes isolated with no help, and even a teacher may sometimes join the aggression. Desperate student would commit a suicide, leaving thank you letters for his/her parents.

New law, Ijime Countermeasures Act, requires all elementary, middle and high schools to hire a counselor and consider appropriate measures to prevent activities that affect a student in psychological or physical way. When a school recognizes that activity, it has to confirm the fact, support the sufferer, and make a guidance or advice to the aggressor. When it is acknowledged as an exercise of crime, the school has to report to police. In a case with jeopardy of life, it needs to investigate immediately and provide the sufferer with the result.

Distinguishing ill-natured action from friendly relationship is extremely difficult. Even if a student reaches his classmate with friendly manner, the classmate may feel aggressed or threatened. The punishment needs to be very careful, but doing nothing may leads to a tragedy. In the schools in the United States, it is rare for a student to be completely isolated in a classroom. When someone is aggressive to one, at least one of the classroom say something to support the sufferer. In Japan, all students try to ignore that activity, because being against the aggressor may causes being targeted next time.

This is exactly the reflection of adult society in Japan. It has been said that the society was divided more than ever: between rich and poor, powerful and weak, or urban and rural. Rather than being involved in a trouble, it is comfortable for an ordinary citizen to take certain distance from that to maintain his/her ordinary life. There is no sense of justice in that society. It is not only the responsibility of teachers to tell students good is good and bad is bad, but of everyone in the society. That creates a unique way of life in a community.

Sweet Lies of Populists

After all, it was economy that came to the center of campaign policies for the election of the House on Councillors next month. The Liberal Democratic Party on Thursday released a package of policies for the election. It says that the party will boldly cut corporate tax to encourage the activities of industries. It however avoided including some policies negative for voters. Those are, for example, dealing with consumption tax, direction of Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the future of nuclear power plants. In short, the policies are nothing but a reflection of populism.

It is fair to say that Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, listed up a number of ambitious economic policies. The package includes a target of the growth of gross domestic products for next decade as 3% for nominal growth and 2% for real growth. For industries, it promises to raise annual capital investment to ¥70 trillion, which can be paralleled with pre-Lehman Shock level. The party also encourages foreign investment with a plan for doubling foreign direct investment to ¥35 trillion. It unequivocally declares that the dark circumstances of Japan have been changed.

But, it does not mention that the LDP administration will raise the consumption tax rate in April 2014, the schedule which was determined by former administration of the Democratic Party of Japan. Although it emphasizes the target of neutralizing fiscal primary balance by 2020, the campaign promises does not explain how to do that. While it asserts that the party will seek the best way to preserve national interests in the negotiation for Trans-Pacific Partnership, it promises the expansion of the amount of exporting agricultural products from ¥450 billion to ¥1 trillion by 2020. Anyway, what is the strategy for enhancing competitiveness of agriculture in Japan?

Securing the energy resource is one of the big issues in Japan. LDP upholds the policy of resuming nuclear reactors for power generation, while about 310 thousand displaced people are looking for the place to live. LDP policies are always soft for the strong, and hard for the weak.

As market has shown, Abenomics has been suffered from radical move of hedge funds. It should be overestimation for Abe to recognize Japan economy as has been drastically revived in such a short period as half a year or so. Petit bubble economy created by him may soon be burst. It is voters who are examined whether they can distinguish what Japan is really in need form sweet lies of populists.

Not Regulation, But Condition

While it should be a list of limitations, it was recognized as a starting gun for resuming halted nuclear reactors in each power plant. The Nuclear Regulation Authority released the new regulation standard for nuclear power plants on Wednesday, which was considered with the lessons from the accident in the First Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant two years ago. Leaving a number of sufferers from the tragic accident, the nuclear village in Japan is making a great advance to their revival.

The new regulation looks reasonable at a glance. It requires a specific safety facility, vent system with filter and superbly earthquake-proof seawall to every nuclear power plant. The research of active faults underground should be done in the layer of four hundred years ago or older. A reactor needs to be scrapped forty years from its starting point with a possibility of twenty-year extension. Back-fit principle, which requires the application of new knowledge to older system, is introduced to the regulation. But all of them are not for overcoming every possible disaster, leaving the possibility of human error that fundamentarily caused the disaster two yard ago. It will somehow be activated on 8^th of July.

The power plant companies are delighted with the news of new regulation, because they realize that as conditions for resuming their reactors. There are only two reactors working now among fifty reactors in seventeen nuclear power plants owned by ten companies in Japan. It is expected that four companies are submitting the request of resuming twelve reactors in six plants in July. The Nuclear Regulation Authority will examine those requests. The conclusion will be delivered by the government of Japan with consideration of opinions from local communities around the plants.

The Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has not backed off his willingness of resuming nuclear reactors. His government has been reiterating that it would resume reactors after safety would be reconfirmed. In background are there pressures from nuclear community in Japan, including power companies, academic community and business sectors in overseas. After the LDP administration came in the government, the power of regulation authority was apparently weakened. “New regulation will be tested in the examination on requests from companies,” irresponsibly said Shun-ichi Tanaka, the chairman of the authority.

The nuclear villagers in Japan, however, are looking only at their interests, ignoring anxiety of residents around the plants. After watching the incredibly severe accidents in Fukushima, people around nuclear power plants are highly skeptical about safety measures of power companies. It is not about operating nuclear plants in a desert, but in dense-populated Japan. It is a sin to lay people around the plants under constant insecurity, in compensation with benefits of a part of people in society.

Reputation Matters

Rather than discussing the agenda set by UK Prime Minister, David Cameron, which are trade, tax and transparency, Japanese media preferred to show how Abenomics was liked or disliked by other leaders. Group of Eight leaders meeting delivered the declaration for world economy, which praised the economy policy of Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, as expectable. However, there came up concerns about fiscal situation of Japan from some leaders. Under the expectation on Japan’s role in world economy, Abe has to be more responsible for rebuilding fiscal structure.

The message of G8 was clear. “Although growth of Japan economy is supported by short-term fiscal stimulation, bold monetary policy and growth strategy, it needs to determine reliable mid-term fiscal plan,” the declaration for world economy described about Japan. Pro-Abe media emphasized that G8 had approved Abenomics, while some critical media found the significance of leaders’ claims about Japan’s fiscal unhealthiness.

At the meeting, Abe tried to sell his economic policy for earning good reputation on his handlings of Japan economy. “I will create an economy contributing to the world. Although unstable domestic politics has been affecting Japanese economy, I am going to stabilize it,” told Abe in a leaders meeting. On raising consumption tax rate, he showed his intention to do it in an appropriate manner, considering the indicators of latest economy. “I want to make your policy a model of revitalizing economy. Would you come to Italy and make a speech?” asked Italian Prime Minister, Enrico Letta.

Some leaders were, however, skeptical about the implementation. “How do you think about the exit strategy? Isn’t there a concern of competition in foreign exchange?” asked German Chancellor, Angela Merkel. She also asked him how to reduce a huge amount of fiscal debt in a bilateral meeting with Abe. It is fair to say that her concern represented most Japanese citizens’ interest.

Abe’s prescription so far is limited to an announcement of having mid-term fiscal plan in this summer. On the other hand, he promotes fiscal stimulation policy further accumulating governmental debt. This makes the greatest contradiction in his economic policy. People are not so worried about the situation of economy, because the consequence of his policy still looks like moderate in markets. But, Abe has nothing to deal with possible sudden crisis in bond market. Optimism heavily relied on volatile move in markets is inevitably vulnerable.

Only Diplomacy Working

It is the only diplomacy of Japan that looked to be working now. Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, agreed with the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, on inviting Russian Foreign Minister, Sergey Lavrov to Japan this fall. It was the second meeting within last two months, marking a sense of willingness to deal with bilateral issues. It is fair to say that Japan-Russia relationship is the brightest hope of Abe diplomacy with neighbor nations.

Abe and Putin agreed on resuming talks over the Northern Territory, or Kuril Islands in Russian recognition, in the meeting in Moscow in April. This time, they reconfirmed that it was important to have political talks in a timely and frequent manner. To talk about the Northern Territory, they agreed to have meetings in vice-minister level for looking for a solution acceptable for both nations.

The meeting went on in a friendly manner. “We could make a new start of Japan-Russia relationship in Moscow. I hope to step it up for further progress,” told Abe. “Russia-Japan relationship is extremely important. I am pleased with having another opportunity to talk with,” Putin replied. They acknowledged the necessity of requiring North Korea to abandon its nuclear program through the cooperation among related countries. They also welcomed the private deal over joint development of an oil field in the seabed offshore of the State of Magadan.

But, those conversations did not mean a great progress in the negotiation over the peace treaty between those nations. Although they shared the recognition of necessity for accelerating the negotiation, they talked nothing about the substance of how to approach to a goal.

The standpoints of both leaders are too far to solve the problem. Putin, having trouble inside Russia about his handlings of politics, has no leverage to compromise on the territorial issue with Japan. Abe cannot deal with this issue without any compromise from Russia to appeal to Japanese public of his diplomatic gain. They are just standing face to face in the entrance of the negotiation.

For Abe, however, it was useful to have shown that he could meet a leader of one of the major powers in the world. Losing an opportunity of meeting US President, Barack Obama, in Northern Ireland, he appealed the achievement in the meeting with Putin for a compensation for his bitter relationships with China, South Korea, or else. In other words, it was Abe’s achievement to have a leaders’ talk without giving his right wing agenda up, which meant nothing in terms of national interest of Japan.

Japan-US Sober Relationship

It at least showed that there was no firm personal friendship between Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, and US President, Barack Obama. Both leaders seemed to have agreed on not having official meeting in Lough Erne, Northern Ireland, where the Group 8 leaders are having annual meeting this week. It is unusual for the leaders of Japan and US not to have bilateral meeting during the G8 Summit. Although officials of the government of Japan insisted that both leaders had exchanged their view through telephone talk earlier this month, there still are many things to talk about in face-to-face manner. Both of them, or Obama at least, were not interested in demonstrating the closeness of the ally for domestic politics.

Abe announced to the reporters en route Northern Ireland the possibility of no meeting with Obama during the summit. The explanation of the officials was that two leaders had talk over the phone about issues beteen them, including US-China summit talk earlier this month.

There are, however, many things to talk about. People in Japan expect Abe to obtain details about the negotiation of Trans-Pacific Partnership, taking advantage of the alliance. If there were a sort of friendship between two leaders, they would have taken that issue in a face-saving way for them. Even just taking picture of the meeting may work for demonstrating their close relationship. No meeting means the fact that they have no need to symbolically show their willingness to take on world issues.

One possible reason of sober relationship of both leaders is that US has been reluctant to let Japan be involved in US-China relationship. Mixing the relationship between the great powers with trivial matters, such as Senkaku issue, may be causing confusion. Newspapers in Japan brought stories, as revealed by sources in the bilateral relationship, that US President told Abe about his assertion to Chinese President at the meeting in California that US would not ignore Japan as an ally to be threatened by China.

Another factor would be Abe’s unilateral attitude in diplomacy and interpretation of history. Toward North Korea, he sent an unofficial envoy to talk about breakthrough, while US and South Korea was putting pressure to the North. He has still not made clear of his apology on the comfort women issue, preserving the option of reviewing Kono Statement that approved the involvement of Japanese government.

Compared to the down-to-earth character of George W. Bush to Prime Minister, Junichiro Koizumi, Obama’s style looks pragmatic. But it is obvious that current sober relationship between the leaders of Japan and US is mainly attributed to the unreasonable handling of politics on Japanese side.

Please Study English, Japanese Diplomats

A few people must have seen a diplomat to pronounce slang as seriously as Mr. Hideaki Ueda did. As a human rights envoy to the United Nations, Ueda scolded noisy audience during his speech in a meeting in Geneva, screaming “Don’t laugh! Why are you laughing?” Then, he reiterated “Shut up.” Although he was successful in calming down, with freeze, the conference room for a moment, he has been pointed at and laughed by the world after the scene was uploaded on Youtube. (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mzItB8blgXg) He eroded national interest of Japan by revealing low English efficiency of Japanese diplomats.

At that time, Ueda and other delegates were discussing the justice system in Japan. Ueda was making argument against the criticism of a delegation of Mauritius that there is a practice not permitting a suspect to have a legal representative present during questioning. After emphasizing that Japan is one of the most advanced countries in the field of human rights, Ueda looked like lost his temper to the laughter of the audience.

If he had said that “Well, even though we are on our way to establish complete legal system, we are still proud of our achievements in protecting human rights. It would not be correct manner to disturb an exercise of building a common notion by laughing, scolding, or making some noises, fellow delegates,” that would not be a problem.

There are some lessons. Firstly, Japanese diplomats need to study English harder. “Shut up” is categorized into slang, which is not used in official situation. For professional diplomats in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the most important job is to maintain organizational integration, as well as bureaucrats in other ministry would do, spending time for studying foreign language away. In the offices abroad, they are too busy in dealing with inside jobs to have opportunities to make conversation with foreigners.

Secondly, study more about their home country. Japan is not so much advanced in legal system as he was proud so much. There are some cases, in which prosecutors fabricated the reports of interview to a suspect to make him/her guilty. The government of Japan is reluctant to assure the transparency of interview to a suspect, trying to allow prosecutors having closed inquiry when there is a possibility of negative effect on their investigation. Those are not what a democratic government would do.

Thirdly, stop despising small countries. Backed by economic power, the delegate of Japan always tries to show their country bigger than actual size. If it had not been Mauritius but a delegate from on of the Group 8 countries, he would not even make an argument.

After all, a diplomat needs to realize that every word he delivers may be broadcast to the world immediately.

Abenomics All Set

The Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, released all arrows of Abenomics, the policy mix for getting rid of deflated economy. The first and the second arrows already passed their target, without any permanent effect on Japanese economy. It is the third arrow, or growth strategy, that will prove real worth of Abenomics. The strategy, however, proved to be insufficient, because the policies could not be breaking the great wall of established interests, being afraid of opposition in the national election next month. Markets showed disappointment.

The Cabinet Office uploaded on their homepage the key points of the Basic Policies for Economic and Fiscal Management and Reform, which was decided by the cabinet on Friday. (http://www5.cao.go.jp/keizai1/2013/20130614item_02.pdf) It analyzes that twenty-year stagnation was caused by ‘delay in actions to adapt to structural changes, regretting negative interaction between macro-economy and micro-economic aspects leading to further deterioration.” It also noticed high level of public debt, which amounted to about ¥1 quadrillion.

So, what should be the remedy of Japan economy? The strategy was aimed at “an economy and society that guarantees free and fair competition and open economic environments.” In other words, the key was how Japan would be successful in deregulation in its economy. But the strategy was insufficient in terms of deregulation. While it allowed the private companies renting farming land, they still cannot buy it. Mixed medical treatment, which would be the mixture of treatments with public health care and those without it, was not effectively allowed.

Reducing national debt was almost ignored. Spendings for pension system and medical treatment was not considered to be cut in the strategy. Although the administration led by the Democratic Party of Japan stressed the importance of social security reform, current LDP administration is reluctant to discuss the future of social security.

That negative attitude to put burdens on people’s lives stems from the fear of defeat in the election. The Prime Minister believes that if he asks people reducing payment from pension system or raising medical fee before election, voters will turn their back to LDP. What is he doing by putting aside necessary measures for economic reform? That is to get simple majority in both Houses of the Diet, which is necessary for promoting Abe’s personal agenda, including amendment of the Constitution. One thing is clear now. His right-leaning policies have nothing to do with enhancing people’s lives in Japan.

Irrelevant Campaign Massages

It has been frequent in the United States, that the political standpoint had been different between federal and local governments. It is very strange, however, that that would happen in Japan. Dispute over the relocation of Futenma US Marine Airbase would be the one of those rare cases. Once it happens inside a leading party, it should be a serious problem in terms of party credibility. In the election of the House of Councillors next month, the Liberal Democratic Party will make different campaign promises between the headquarters and the Okinawa branch. Who would believe in such a promise anyway?

In the campaign for the election, LDP allows its local branches to have regional campaign promises, which are suitable for specific local issues. Building roads, bridges, schools or hospitals, enhancing cares for old people or kids, or policies for supporting farmers and fishermen may attract local voters in the election. Most of forty-seven branches of the party will deliver their own policies, adding to comprehensive promises of the headquarters in Tokyo.

For the party leaders, Okinawa’s local policy must be uneasy one. Noticing pressure from overwhelming public opinion in Okinawa that Futenma Air Base should be moved to somewhere outside Okinawa, local party organization decided to appeal their voters that they would relocate the base, against the plan of the government of both Japan and US to relocate it to Henoko in Nago city, Okinawa.

It is dishonest for a party to deliver two totally opposite messages to the public. If a man who wants the base be gotten out of Okinawa voted for LDP, the local promise is still not guaranteed to be implemented, because the headquarter may overturn the local promise. That is not what a responsible party would do.

In Fukushima, LDP branch is going to promise their voters to dismantle all the nuclear power plant in the region will be dismantled. Fukushima has ten nuclear reactors in two power plants. Four were destructed in the earthquake and tsunami in 2011 and six are suspended after the disaster.

But, the nuclear policy of LDP headquarters and national government is resuming as much reactors as possible, after the safety is assured. It may contradict to the promise of LDP local branch.

It is unlikely that LDP is going to integrate their promises between Tokyo and local branches. It is voters who are tested whether they have clear eyes to distinguish political promises from lies.

New Distrust to Marine

US Marine Corps added another bad reputation in Japan. One grenade landed outside of Yausubetsu Training Area, Hokkaido, during the artillery exercise on Tuesday. Since the landed point was quite close to a national highway, even though no victim has been reported, residents get more worried about the exercise. Marine halted the exercise to inquire the reason of false strike.

The exercise was live-fire training of artillery started on Monday. Marine missed one grenade and found it outside of the training area, the point where seven hundred meters from national highway Route 272. Since it was the land owned by the national government of Japan, there was no damage on any private property. But, the governor of Hokkaido, Harumi Takahashi, requested the Ministry of Defense to ask Marine stopping the training for investigation. Marine accepted it.

In the answer to questions from regional newspaper, Hokkaido Shimbun, Marine admitted that the accident was caused by wrong operation of safety measures by two servicemen. “Marine takes this accident seriously and put priority on the safety of the troops and local community. We want to reduce the local impact,” described the answer.

However, the people are frustrated with the delay of response from Marine and the Ministry of Defense of Japan. The report of the accident was brought from the ministry to the local town office two and half hours after it had happened. There had been a few exchanges of information, through e-mail, between the ministry and Marine after the accident. There have been reported a number of wildfires caused by the exercise in Yausubetsu. Ranchers around the training area are skeptical about security measures taken by Marine.

The exercise was originally taken in Okinawa. To reduce the burden in Okinawa, it was dispersed to several places in Japan, including Yausubetsu, in 1997. Even though Hokkaido is relatively rich in abandoned lands, there are people’s daily lives just outside of military training area, far different from the situation of military bases in State of Texas or Washington. This is something difficult for US military to understand the closeness between military and civil lives in Japan.

The accident in Yausubetsu also revealed the deterioration of skill of Marine. Is it an overestimation that the accident was a result of cutting military budget in US Congress? Reduced budget affects not only to procurement, but also morale of personnel. It is better for Marine or other US troops to thoroughly review its exercises in Japan to maintain its reliability.

Emerging Country on Tourism

Wikia Travel, for example, listed only one in Japan, Golden Pavilion in Kyoto, in “100 places to visit before you die.” Known as one of the great economies in the world, at least the Japanese believe so, Japan is not a great power to be visited. The government of Japan decided on Tuesday to increase the amount of purchases of foreign travelers by four times by 2030, in order to support economic growth of Japan. The target is Southeast Asia.

The government of Japan will ease the visa regulation to the travelers from South East Asia from this summer. Travelers from Thailand and Malaysia will not need visa to travel to Japan. The Philippines and the Vietnamese are going to be able to get visas for multiple uses. The Indonesians, for whom multiple visas are already available, can extend their stay from fifteen days to the longer.

With those deregulations, the government of Japan counts on increasing the consumption of foreign travelers from $11 billion in 2012 to $47 billion in 2030. Nikkei Newspaper reported that Japan Tourism Agency estimated the consumption average of a Thai or a Malaysian traveler was eighty percent higher than that of a Korean. Digital cameras, cosmetic goods and thermal bottles are popular for Thais. Current tendency of cheap yen against US dollar supports more visit from Southeast Asia.

The numbers of visitors to Japan in 2012 was 8.37 millions, sixty percent more than ten years before. But Japan was still located around the thirtieth position in the world ranking in 2010. Japan is obviously not a developed, but an emerging power in terms of tourism. Although there are a lot of places to see for foreign travelers in Japan, the Japanese have not been good at sell them. While people in tourism business are enthusiastic about letting tourism resources be listed in the World Heritage of UNESCO to earn good reputation, they are not serious about making their own effort, something like improving social networking services.

A couple of years ago, one typical course of Chinese travelers to Japan was landing on the Kansai International Airport, going to Kyoto to see historical buildings, moving to Nagoya to see Toyota car factories, visiting Tokyo and test their fortunes by lottery in Ginza town, and finally leave Narita International Airport. The tourism agency needs to develop more of that kind of popular story of travel in Japan. Concerning the popularity of Japanese girls idol groups in Southeast Asia, establishing AKB 48 museum may work for tourism strategy. This is a sort of effort to sell Japanese soft power, different from exporting missile technologies or nuclear reactors.

Long-term Bonds Anxiety

It is more difficult for a gambler to retreat from a big game than to participate in it. The Bank of Japan judged that it was not necessary to take additional action for regulating the interest rate of long-term bonds. Tokyo Stock Market was so disappointed that Nikkel Average dropped by ¥200 on Tuesday. Although the economic policy of Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, had been positively accepted by market until last May, Japanese economy might be on the turning point to possible disastrous failure.

The Policy Decision Meeting of BOJ on Tuesday decided that it would maintain current monetary policy, which was expanding monetary basis by ¥60-70 trillion a year. It also avoided extending the period of low-interest money supply operation from one year to the longer. On the assessment of situation of economy, it raised from “recovering” to “recovers.”

At the press conference after the meeting, BOJ Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, admitted that they discussed additional measures for restricting the rise of long-term interest, and took no action of it as a result. “Fluctuation is getting ceased and we assessed that additional measures are not needed. We keep on making effort to minimize the fluctuation,” told Kuroda. He showed his feeling of satisfaction on the effect of major monetary easing policy introduced in April.

The real economy is showing the signs of distortive effects by the policy of BOJ. After the policy introduced, seventy percent of all the national bonds have been bought by BOJ, reducing the room for private sectors to join. It has been causing the inflexibility of bonds market. Although Kuroda was confident in the power of BOJ, saying that the bank could regulate the interest by flexible operation of buying national bonds, the market has been seeing higher interest of long-term bonds.

Actually, stock prices of related industries, represented by real estate or private banks, has been dropped steeper than manufactures or electric power companies current weeks. It shows that stock market is getting more and more skeptical about the future of long-term debts. This tendency existed behind the decline of stock market on Tuesday.

For Abe it is more important that Japanese economy maintains its positive tendency until the end of July, when the election of the House of Councillors will be held. If the negative element appears, his ambition of taking majority in both houses of the Diet will be in jeopardy. “We are confident in the staffs of BOJ headed by Kuroda,” told the Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, at the press conference on Tuesday. But the fact is both Abe and Kuroda has nothing to handle long-term bonds.

Chinese Diplomatic Achievement on Senkaku

It should be unusual that the leaders of two super powers talk about small rocks on western Pacific Ocean. US President, Barack Obama, and Chinese President, Xi Jinping, exchanged their opinions over Senkaku Islands at the meeting in California, on which China had been appealing its sovereignty, while Japan had been denying the existence of dispute itself. In terms of that Obama did not directly dispute against Xi’s viewpoint, China gained a point in argument against Japan.

At the summit meeting, China fully appealed its standpoint on the Senkaku issue. “We hope related countries to stop intimidation in responsible manner and go back to the orbit for solving the problem appropriately through dialogues,” told Xi to Obama, according to Yang Jiechi, a State Councilor and the Foreign Minister. Xi also showed his intention to protect national sovereignty and territory and his willingness to deal this issue with dialogue. Yang explained the achievement of the talk as reconfirmation of respect on core interest or significant concerns of both.

US National Security Adviser, Tom Donilon, revealed that Obama asked Xi not to escalate the opposition between Japan and China over Senkaku at the summit meeting, and to solve the problem with diplomatic measures. Basic standpoint of US that it would not be involved in the argument over sovereignty had not changed at the meeting, which would be a meaningful achievement for China.

The overall strategy of China was to share hegemony in the Pacific Ocean by two superpowers. By presenting that grand design, China supposedly tried to trivialize Senkaku issue, or the existence of Japan in the Pacific. Meanwhile, it was crucial for US to make some deal with China to assure US presence in Asia-Pacific region. China was successful to contain Senkaku issue into that context. It may be likely that US urges Japan to accept a settlement of this issue leaning on Chinese position.

Japan still believes in Japan-US alliance, even how US wants Japan to solve it through dialogue between Japan and China. “Japan and US have alliance. It is critical difference from US-China relationship,” optimistically told Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, in a TV interview on Sunday. This leader did not understand the logic of diplomacy between superpowers, in which each player has indispensable stakes in the counterpart.

Abe is requesting another summit meeting with Obama taking advantage of G8 summit meeting in UK later this month. It is not beneficial for Obama to meet a Japanese leader who has negative reputation on his recognition of post-war history. It is only Japan who takes the alliance for granted.