Why Japan Hurries?

The ministry meeting of Trans-Pacific Partnership on Friday delivered a joint statement, which urged the parties to have a conclusion until the end of this year. It also emphasized the importance of the leaders meeting of Asia Pacific Economic Conference in October as a turning point of the negotiation. Although there are a lot of differences among the parties, they seemed optimistic on the negotiation. It looks like they have common purpose of the negotiation: containment of China.

While it required efforts for an agreement of mutually acceptable, the statement took one step forward. It set seven important issues toward the agreement, which are tariff abolition, intellectual assets, investment, financial service, governmental procurement, policy on competition and environment.

In the context of the conference, Japan started bilateral negotiations over the list of products to open or protect. However, Japan did not have any detailed talks on apecific products with two agricultural giants, United States and Australia. In the negotiation with those two counties, it will be very hard to set a “sanctuary” for specific products, to which internal pressure for protection is strong.

According to news reports in Japan, the reason why the joint statement set a time limit was mainly U.S. eagerness for it. “Worrying about the mid-term election next year, President Barack Obama ordered U.S. Trade Representative, Michael Froman, to have conclusion within this year,” most news reports explained. One newspaper introduced a view of a Japanese official that positive attitude of U.S. was preferable for Japan, because time factor may urge U.S. a compromises in negotiation with Japan.

But, it was Japan that was also in a hurry. TPP is not the most important issue for Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe. For the leader who focuses on his own agenda, including constitutional amendment and enhancing military power of Self-defense Force, it is not preferable to spend much time for trade issue. He supposedly wants to have a conclusion soon and save ample time for dealing with other issues. In addition, he expects that the agreement on trade framework in Asia Pacific region works for putting pressure on China, to which Abe has trouble in diplomacy.

He needs to think this issue more as survival of agriculture of Japan. Based on the notion that TPP is a framework of completely free trade, it will be unavoidable for Japanese agriculture to decline. Without any political leadership for structural reform, agriculture in Japan will be severely damaged.