Putting Northeast Asia Uncertainty

Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, held a press conference to announce his intention to reinterpret the Constitution of Japan for exercising collective self-defense right on Thursday. His explanation on how Japan needed to do that was nothing making sense. It simply was a declaration that he would deal with Senkaku issue not by coast guard, but by military, a policy shift which might be changing nature of the problem.

Abe used a number of ifs. “If a United States vessel sending the Japanese home who escaped from conflict in a foreign country were attacked, Japanese Self-defense Force will not be able to help the vessel. It is current interpretation of the Constitution,” told Abe. He was saying that it was because he wanted reinterpretation. No, help our fellow citizens, please, Prime Minister. Do not waste your time in interpreting constitution.

His explanation had not taken root. There is an argument that protecting Japanese passenger should be individual self-defense that the Constitution allows. Even if the government prohibits that, it can change its interpretation. It should be a minor change rather than the decision of having a force in 1950s.

Hidden intention of Abe was to have a breakthrough in the argument of exercising collective self-defense right with some examples related to actual life of the people, even though those examples were something very unlikely. For him, the benefit of that breakthrough was Japan could be having greater deterrence against China. He believed that U.S. would help Japan more seriously in Senkaku, when Japan announced further contribution to the bilateral alliance.

It was deadly wrong. As long as Japan does not show its determination to protect Senkaku by itself, U.S. will not help Japan, because it is a matter of U.S. national interest. Japan cannot have any deterrence against China by itself. It is individual self-defense Abe should discuss now, not collective self-defense. Protecting Senkaku cannot be achieved by discussion of self-defense. If he were serious in defense policy, he needs to start bilateral talk with China immediately.

Unfortunately, this narrow-minded leader does not give up his right-wing political agenda. Knowing a message from China that demanded Abe not to visit Yasukuni Shrine again, Abe does not promise it. By taking that position, he is deteriorating the relationship with China, planting the nation negative images on China, and encouraging people to stand up. His handling of politics is leading this country on a wrong course. If he had a card of collective self-defense right, it will put a great uncertainty on security in Northeast Asia. As shown in nationalizing Senkaku two years ago, U.S. ignores this problem.