Decision of Reshuffling

Newspapers reported that Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, decided to shuffle his Cabinet early September. Being nearly two years old, his Cabinet has already been looking tired of keeping tension as the reformers from former liberal administration of Democratic Party of Japan. In other words, Abe started to show weakness in his leadership. While he expects revitalization of his administration, the decision may cause further slowing down, which can be fatal.

The reports revealed that Abe told senior members of Liberal Democratic Party his intention to refresh the Ministers and party leadership. Although it is ordinary for a Prime Minister to announce as short in notice as possible not to spread expectation too much, Abe rather chose to take time over a month between announcement and reshuffling.

It is obviously a political strategy for stabilizing his administration. During summer recess, lawmakers in his party will hear various opinions from supporters in their electoral districts. After decision of enabling exercise of collective self-defense right of Japan, popularity of Abe and his party got down with frustration against too quick process for a major change in national security principle. Before losing popularity among the lawmakers in the party, Abe tried to maintain his grip by reminding them, mainly wannabes, of his power in nomination of ministers.

In other words, Abe is losing his power to the extent he has no option except having a gambling. In addition to security policy, he is facing other unpopular decisions this fall. His decision to raise consumption tax rate from 8% to 10% will significantly erode his political basis. After introducing new tax rate in April, arose from 5% to 8, economy has been showing slow progress namely in wages for small and mid-size business workers. Abe has told that the decision will be this fall, some ministers started saying that would be December. Trans-Pacific Partnership will be another negative impact on the party. Knowing that reshuffling basically raises supporting rate, Abe embarked on a damage control.

But changing members of the Cabinet may lead new scandals of the cabinet. There are examples of reshuffling causing death of a Cabinet. Picking once guilty minister in Lockheed Scandal, Koko Sato, for a Minister by Premier Ryutaro Hashimoto received so broad opposition from the public that Hashimoto had to discharge him. But his cabinet had never caught another momentum until the collapse of his Cabinet less than a year later. As long as fundamental situation of economy will not regain power, Abe administration will keep on sinking.