Unworkable Deterrence

Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, used the word “deterrence” four times in his press conference to explain why he was enthusiastic in reinterpretation of the Constitution for exercising collective self-defense right. “Perfect preparation has power to discourage plot to start war against us. That is deterrence. Possibility for Japan to be involved in war will be decreased,” he said. Wait a minute, Mr. Prime Minister. Is it about deterrence?

According to Richard Betts, Professor of Columbia University, “[D]eterrence is a strategy for combining two competing goals: countering an enemy and avoiding war.” Its basic concept, as Betts defines, is that “an enemy will not strike if it knows the defender can defeat the attack or can inflict unacceptable damage in retaliation.” Although Abe did not determined against whom he referred to deterrence, it was obvious that he meant to counteract against possible offence from China.

Japan can never have deterrence against China by itself. China will not think Japan can defeat all the attack or retaliate with unacceptable damage without any help of United States force. When Japan refers to deterrence against China, willingness of U.S. to exercise it against China must be a basis for the strategy. Is U.S. really willing to do that?

Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and Pacific Affairs, Daniel Russel, told “we do not seek to contain China,” in his testimony before Senate Foreign Relation Committee last month. “To the contrary,” he said, “we want China to contribute stability and development of the region by exercising restraint, by upholding the basic rules on which the international system is built – rules that China helps formulate and benefits from.” Apparently, U.S. does not take containment, but engagement toward China.

What is on Abe’s mind, however, is containment. Attributing communication breakdown to China, he has been visiting a number of countries around China, making deals in economy, culture or everything to cooperate with. Those countries included Australia, New Zealand, India, Mongolia, Burma and other Southeast Asian nations. Even how senior leaders in Abe administration deny, Japan is containing China.

In this ambivalent circumstance in the alliance, deterrence does not work. Playing a game of great powers with U.S., Chinese leaders might have known well about Abe was boasting. It is possible that Abe was falsely persuading the public, using unrealistic theory in international relation. This is the way the Japanese top leader looks down its people.