Precipitation of Bilateral Relation

Crash of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 will have significant impact on Japan’s diplomacy toward Russia. Although Shinzo Abe administration still expects a progress in bilateral relationship taking opportunity of planned official visit to Japan by Russian President, Vladimir Putin, this fall, situation of international relations over Ukraine will not allow it. If Abe insists on making a deal with Putin, it will put Japan in a further isolated standpoint in the Western side, in addition to skepticism to Japan over easing sanction against North Korea as a bargaining with abduction issue.

Abe stressed on keeping momentum with Putin on Saturday, after concerted criticism against Russia emerged from the Western side. “We demand Russia to be constructively involved in many problems in international society as a responsible state. I will continue dialogue with Putin,” told Abe in his speech in Shimonoseki, Yamaguchi. “We will make efforts,” he said about shooting Flight 17 down, “in cooperation with international society. Any conflict has to be solved through diplomacy based on international law.” On negotiation for peace treaty with Russia, he insisted on withstanding negotiation.

As investigation proceeds, it becomes clear that pro-Russian militants, which has been supported by military procurement from Russia, were guilty in Flight 17 case. Russia was obviously frustrated with additional sanction set by the Western countries, which made a good reason to show resistance. While Russia may raise conspiracy theory by the Western side, new facts such as purchase of surface-to-air missile from Russia broaden skepticism on pro-Russian militants in Ukraine. Sacrifice of innocent lives amounting to nearly three hundred was too much to be a tool of solving an international conflict.

Japan needs to realize that it cannot go forward unless Russia proves to be not guilty in this attack on the airplane. The Western side is considering another sanction against Russia. In this situation, it is obvious that Russia will only approach to Japan to take advantage of the relationship. It is likely for Russia to try to make a deal in energy sales, but breakthrough in Northern Territory issue cannot be brought, because it does not lead to final solution for improving relationship with the West. Japan should not expect dramatic progress.

In principle, the Northern Territory was occupied by Russia at the end of the World War II, in the same manner as it did to Ukraine. The best way for Japan is keep on criticizing Russia, even if it distances from a bilateral deal. It should show a bold approach by canceling summit talk this fall.
(Revised July 21st)