Reaching Two-third Majority

Less than a week before the voting day, newspapers reported result of polls on the voters. With negative attitude of the leading parties to discuss it and fundamental weakness of the opposite parties, the power for amending the Constitution of Japan is reaching two-third majority in the House of Councillors, which will be needed to take initiative for national referendum. Putting aside the obligation of public officials to respect and uphold the Constitution, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is expecting next step to replace the backbone of his country.

According to the poll exercised by Kyodo News Agency, Liberal Democratic Party could obtain 60 seats, which would give it alone majority in the House of Councillors. Since it already has simple majority in the House of Representatives, LDP is likely to obtain hegemonic power in both Houses. As Komeito is likely to get 14 seats, the leading parties will stably control policy discussion in the House.

The opposite parties have not shown its power. Democratic Party was predicted to get only 27 seats, meaning 16 seats of reduction from current amount. Although Japan Communist Party is expected to secure 9 seats, increasing 6 from now, it will not make viable difference in the advance of the leading power. While Social Democratic Party is struggling for taking 1 seat, People’s Life Party may not be able to get a seat.

So, the focus is not about simple majority, but about two-third majority required for constitutional amendment. There are four parties that is willing to amend the constitution: LDP, Komeito, Osaka Restoration Party and Party for Japanese Mind. In addition to expected 74 seats for LDP and Komeito, 4 seats are required to occupy the two-third. Osaka is expected to get 6 seats mainly in Kansai area.

What does it mean? It means new step forward to change Article 9 that renounced war as settling international conflict. Komeito has been negative on changing Article 9, appealing its character as peaceful party. However, has the party ever taken initiative in security issues in the leading coalition with LDP? While it might have led the discussion over trivial policy like introducing tax reduction in new consumption tax rate, Komeito has been obedient in legislating Designated Secrecy Law or rending collective self-defense right to Japanese Self-defense Force, which had been recognized as unconstitutional.

It is likely that Abe is going to accelerate discussion over the constitution in the next Diet session this fall. Even if he cannot touch Article 9, it is possible to shake whole system of the constitution by changing small parts of them. Neighbors of Japan are closely watching the move. If Japan gets into the way to rebuilding military power against possible invasion, tension in Northeast Asia will be raised eventually.