In Tokyo, Economy First

Former Minister of Health, Labor and Welfare, Youichi Masuzoe, has been leading the gubernatorial race in Metropolitan Tokyo, polls showed. Former Prime Minister, Morihiro Hosokawa, follows him, being followed by former president of Japan Federation of Bar Association, Kenji Utsunomiya. Although Hosokawa has been asking voters whether Tokyo should get rid of use of nuclear power, voters rather expect better economy than seriously consider their future.

According to the poll Asahi Shimbun operated last weekend, Masuzoe received a half of support from independent voters, while Hosokawa got about thirty percent. Although the independents are the biggest target for Hosokawa, the poll showed that his campaign strategy has not been working well. Support for Utsunomiya is limited to the supporters of Communist Party and Social Democrats, which consist of a small part of eligible voters.

So, what are the voters seeing in the election? The poll revealed 29% of them were looking at economy and jobs, and 25% focused on medical care and welfare. Voters who had concern on nuclear generation and energy were limited to 14% of all. Only 9% showed the interest in the preparation for Tokyo Olympic games in 2020, incompatible with most candidates’ interests.

For people in Tokyo, the biggest interest is whether current upward tendency for revitalization of Japanese economy will settle for certain period of time. Although some workers, most of them working for major corporations, have already realized the recovery of economy, others have still in hard situation, suffering from price hike of imported raw materials with low valued yen. Job rate has still not shown significant recovery. For aged voters, a group which has always been showing big turnout, the most crucial policy of Tokyo government is sustainable welfare, rather than nuclear generation or international sports event.

Masuzoe’s strategy of shifting the eyes of voters from nuclear issue is working well so far. In other words, his campaign staffs have been making good effort to deter former Premier, Jun-ichiro Koizumi, closely supporting Hosokawa. It is another aspect that the race is a showdown between Koizumi and Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga. There is a rivalry between Koizumi and Suga over hegemony of political basis in Kanagawa prefecture, where both were elected.

The key is whether Hosokawa can take independent voters back. To do that, he needs to exactly talk about how to reduce the nuclear power plants and to increase renewable energy. Only if he could to that, his campaign will start working.